Welcome to the daily MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel, DraftKings, and Fantasydraft!
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
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I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!
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Definitions of Stats used in articles via Fangraphs.com
K% (Strikeout Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has struck out a batter, calculated as strikeouts divided by total batters faced.
An average K% is 20%, anything above is considered great or elite
BB% (Walk Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has issued a walk, calculated as walks divided by total batters faced. Average BB% for pitchers is 7.7%, anything lower is considered great or elite
BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The rate at which the pitcher allows a hit when the ball is put in play. A BABIP at or near .300 is considered average. EXAMPLE: if a pitcher has a BABIP of .200 it means he could be getting lucky and balls in play are turned into outs if they have a BABIP of .400 he could be getting unlucky on balls in play and they are turning into hits.
xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): An estimate of a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, and fly balls allowed, assuming league average results on balls in play and home run to fly ball ratio. The Lower the xFIP the better. 3.80 is around average.
SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): An ERA estimator that attempts to more accurately capture a pitcher’s performance based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, home runs, and batted ball data. The lower the better 3.90 is considered average, so anything below that is great to excellent. Anything about is poor.
Hard% (Hard Contact Percentage): Percentage of hard-hit batted balls. Anything below 30% is considered average or better. the lower Hard% the better, meaning pitchers are giving up more soft contact.
wRC+: A rate statistic that credits a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treating them all equally. League average is 100, each point above or below that is one percentage point better or worse than league average. wRC+ is a better representation of offense value.
O-Swing% = Swings at pitches outside the zone/pitches outside the zone
Z-Swing% = Swings at pitches inside the zone/pitches inside the zone
Swing% = Swings/Pitches
O-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches outside the zone / Swings on pitches outside the zone
Z-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches inside the zone / Swings on pitches inside the zone
SwStr% = Swings and misses/Total Pitches
MAIN SLATE
Chris Sale (11.6k FD) (11.8k DK) (22.8k FD2) vs ATL
The highest priced pitching option on fanduel this afternoon and rightfully so. Over his last 4 starts, he has 2 60 point fanduel games a 42 and 57. For his price tag, we need to continually see 50+ point games and he is very capable of them. His strikeouts have been up since his May 1st start and he’s looked very good. He is giving up power against righties, but still allowing a .261 wOBA to them. Atlanta does not have any RHH that really scare me against Sale today. The Braves are never a team to strikeout a ton, but their K% is up 4% in their last 7 days. Sale is an elite play in all formats today.
Gerrit Cole (11.2k FD) (11.6k DK) (22.5k FD2) @ CLE
McCullers had struggled last night against the Indians, but I do not see Cole doing that tonight. Cole has been one of the best pitchers in the MLB this season. Cole is pitching with an elite 40% K rate this season and just a 2.17 SIERA. He’s giving up more flyballs, but still less than an HR/9. Aside from last night’s game, the Indians have been scuffling a bit of late. They have a 22% K rate over their L14 and that goes up a bit to 23% in their L7. No one has been able to hit Cole this season as he is holding hitters to a .168 average and .233 wOBA. Cole, like Sale, is elite in all formats.
Trevor Bauer (9.4k FD) (10.6k DK) (20.4k FD2) vs HOU
I don’t know if many people will be on Bauer this afternoon because of the matchup. Bauer has been very consistent this year and has almost a 27% K rate this season. He’s pitching with a very good 3.54 SIERA and getting 47% groundballs. Houston has seen Bauer 96 times and they are hitting .250 against him. Bauer has gone at least 6 innings in 8 of his 10 starts this season and has had 2 50 point fanduel games and 2 40 point games in his last 5 starts. Like I said, Houston is not a team we always like to pick on, but I think Bauer is a fantastic GPP play this afternoon with everyone looking to avoid him.
Stephen Strasburg (10.2k FD) (12.6k DK) (25.1k FD2) @ MIA
Strasburg is the most expensive arm on DK and FD2 but is the 3rd most expensive on fanduel. The Marlins are a team who have not been striking out a bunch this year, but they do have a 23% K rate in their L14 vs RHP. Like I always say when picking a pitcher against the Marlins, they are a pesky team who can single all over the place to score runs. Luckily for Strasburg, this game is indoors and he pitches better when it’s not hot and humid. Despite not having the best fanduel points over his last 5 starts, he still has gone 6+ in all of them. He is over 10k so we do want at least 40+ from him, and that is definitely possible. He sports near a 28% K rate on the season and just over a 1.00 WHIP with a 3.19 SIERA and 45% GB rate. I fear he could be a bit chalky given the fact he’s cheaper than Sale and Cole and facing the Marlins. I still do like him in all formats this afternoon though.
Nick Pivetta (8k FD) (9.6k DK) (18.8k FD2) vs TOR
Toronto has been really struggling of late against RHP. Over the last week, they have just a 59 wRC+ with a .261 wOBA and 25% strikeout rate. Pivetta has looked amazing this year and is always low-owned. He has a 28% K rate and just 5.6% walk rate with a 1.08 WHIP. Despite a couple starts this year, he has been fairly consistent and his last two he has been amazing. He has allowed just 2 walks and gotten 18 K’s over 14 IP in his last two starts getting 61 and 52 fanduel points. Pivetta has a good 11.3% SwStr% and lower contact rate with a 3.18 SIERA this season. Pivetta will be lower owned like always and he’s in a fantastic spot to put up a huge game, just like Nola last night. Lefties are his struggle this year, but the ones from Toronto do not scare me outside of Smoak and Solarte, who have been up and down all season. I see massive upside today with Pivetta.
J.A. Happ (9.1k FD) (10.3k DK) (19.4k FD2) @ PHI
Happ seems a tad overpriced for me, but I think we can take advantage of that today. He has turned it back around with two solid performances after 2 awful ones. The Phillies are a boom or bust team, and they love to strikeout. The Phillies have been striking out 22% to LHP in their L14, but that number goes up to 25% over their L7. Happ has surprised a lot of people this year, and advanced stats like a 3.06 SIERA show it is for real. He is also getting 49% groundballs with a career-high 12% SwStr% and career low contact rate this year. I think Happ has great upside this afternoon against Philly.
Jameson Taillon (7.4k FD) (5.8k DK) (11.4k FD2) vs STL
For someone who was priced up over 9k at one point on fanduel this year to be this low is crazy. Yes, Taillon has been pretty bad of late, but this matchup isn’t the worst. His price on DK and FD2 are just laughable because he’s pretty much a steal over there. The Cardinals have been shaky all season and over their L7 they have a high 25.7% K rate and are not walking at all with a 2.3% walk rate. Over his last 3 starts he only has been in the 20’s fanduel point wise, but one he left with an injury, one was his first one back and his last start he gave up 6 runs. Taillon has the strikeout upside and we have seen it before. Despite struggling of late he still has a 22% K rate this season and under a 4.00 SIERA. He also is not getting hit that hard with a 28% Hard% and getting 47.7% groundballs. Now facing the Cardinals who are striking out a bit and he is at home makes him a great play today. I would even consider using him as an SP2 in cash games because of the very low price.
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
- Gerrit Cole (all formats)
- (1a) Chris Sale (all formats)
- Stephen Strasburg (all formats)
- Nick Pivetta (all formats)
- Trevor Bauer (GPP)
- A. Happ (GPP)
- Jameson Taillon (GPP, SP2 viable in cash)
