Welcome to the daily MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel, DraftKings, and Fantasydraft!

In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.

I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!

I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.

Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!

NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!

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Definitions of Stats used in articles via Fangraphs.com

K% (Strikeout Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has struck out a batter, calculated as strikeouts divided by total batters faced.

An average K% is 20%, anything above is considered great or elite

BB% (Walk Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has issued a walk, calculated as walks divided by total batters faced. Average BB% for pitchers is 7.7%, anything lower is considered great or elite

BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The rate at which the pitcher allows a hit when the ball is put in play. A BABIP at or near .300 is considered average. EXAMPLE: if a pitcher has a BABIP of .200 it means he could be getting lucky and balls in play are turned into outs if they have a BABIP of .400 he could be getting unlucky on balls in play and they are turning into hits.

xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): An estimate of a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, and fly balls allowed, assuming league average results on balls in play and home run to fly ball ratio. The Lower the xFIP the better. 3.80 is around average.

SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): An ERA estimator that attempts to more accurately capture a pitcher’s performance based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, home runs, and batted ball data. The lower the better 3.90 is considered average, so anything below that is great to excellent. Anything about is poor.

Hard% (Hard Contact Percentage): Percentage of hard-hit batted balls. Anything below 30% is considered average or better. the lower Hard% the better, meaning pitchers are giving up more soft contact.

wRC+: A rate statistic that credits a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treating them all equally. League average is 100, each point above or below that is one percentage point better or worse than league average. wRC+ is a better representation of offense value.

O-Swing% = Swings at pitches outside the zone/pitches outside the zone

Z-Swing%  = Swings at pitches inside the zone/pitches inside the zone

Swing% = Swings/Pitches

O-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches outside the zone / Swings on pitches outside the zone

Z-Contact%  = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches inside the zone / Swings on pitches inside the zone

SwStr% = Swings and misses/Total Pitches

MAIN SLATE

Lance McCullers (9.6k FD) (11k DK) (21.5k FD2) @ CLE

Here we go, a small main slate but some solid options starting with Mr. McCullers Jr. First, we need to keep an eye on the weather here because Mark has it at a 60% chance for a delay. McCullers just dominated this Indians team in his last start going 7 strong with 8 strikeouts. For the most part, he has been pretty solid this season, but walks are a tad high for my liking. He has been able to keep up with his very high GB% this year and his K% is up 2.2% from last year. Cleveland has been scuffling a bit of late to RHP with the 4^th lowest wRC+ in the MLB. They also are striking out 24% of the time. The Indians are surprisingly rolling out 7 lefties in their lineup tonight and McCullers has been better against LHH this season. He’s allowing just a .168 average and .259 wOBA to LHH compared to .248 average and .287 wOBA to RHH. Lastly, McCullers has a 31.6% strikeout rate against lefties too. He will look to repeat from last start.

Alex Wood (8.7k FD) (10.1k DK) (19.7k FD2) vs SD

Good ole pick on the Padres tonight. Wood has been “okay” this season, but nothing like he was last year. His strikeouts are WAY down and he’s giving up a ton of hits. The thing I like about him is last time he faced the Padres he was able to get 37 fanduel points and 7 strikeouts. For his price, we definitely want more than just mid 30s, but tonight it could be enough. The Padres rank 5^th lowest in wRC+ vs LHP in their L14 and have a 25% strikeout rate. Despite the shaky season so far, he still has a better than average SIERA at 3.46. He’s getting 48% groundballs, but also getting hit hard. Wood doesn’t allow many walks, so that will help him out so he can go 6+. Alex Wood has been better against RHH so far this season, and San Diego is projected to have 8 in their lineup tonight, with Hosmer being the only lefty. Against RHH Wood has allowed just a .248 wOBA and .208 average this season. He’s got 2 straight quality starts and will look to make it 3 tonight, which I think he will.

Tyler Anderson (6k FD) (6.4k DK) (12.7k FD2) vs CIN

I get Anderson is pitching in Coors tonight, but he is in a great spot and no one will play him. The Reds are a definite hit or miss team, but have had some problems with LHP in the last 2 weeks. They rank in the bottom 8 in wRC+ and have a 25% K rate. They also have just a .114 ISO and .273 wOBA. Over their last week, they have been even worse! Their wRC+ drops from 72 to 30, they have a 26.7% K rate and have had virtually no power. Their wOBA is also under .200 too. Anderson is an average strikeout guy with a 22.4% K% this season and actually has gotten more K’s at home. His WHIP is a bit high for DK or FD2, but fanduel it won’t matter. The Reds are rolling out a bunch of righties, but they have been a bit cold of late. I think in larger field GPPs we can take a shot at Anderson who has been able to pitch well in Coors.

Wade LeBlanc (6.2k FD) (4.4k DK) (8.4k FD2) vs MIN

I think LeBlanc is going to be quite popular here tonight and rightfully so, he’s extremely cheap and has upside. The Twins have been really bad of late with a 54 wRC+, 26% K rate and just .254 wOBA in the L14 vs LHP. Looking at just the last week alone, those numbers are getting worse. The strikeout rate goes up to 28.7% and their BABIP suggests they are just cold right now. LeBlanc has put on some solid performances this season and for his price a 20-30 fanduel point game is perfectly fine. He hasn’t scored under 20 fanduel points in his last 4 starts and has been around 3-6 strikeouts this year. LeBlanc has been worse at home so far this year, but overall still is allowing under a .300 wOBA. He strikes out more RHH and Minnesota is projected to roll out 7 of them tonight. I love his price tag for GPPs, but I do think he will be quite popular tonight, but he’s a great play.

MAIN SLATE RANKINGS

1. Lance McCullers (all formats)
2. Alex Wood (all formats)
3. Wade LeBlanc (GPP, solid SP2)
4. Tyler Anderson (GPP)

I don’t have Carrasco listed today, because frankly I love McCullers and Wood much better. They have better matchups and Houston has been solid of late against RHP and not striking out a lot. If you do want to roll out Carrasco, I wouldn’t be against it, he’s just not someone I am playing tonight. Like I said, I like the other two better. Good Lucky DFSArmy!