Welcome to the daily MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel, Drafktkings, and Fantasydraft!

In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.

I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!

I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.

Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!

NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!

ALWAYS PAY ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER FROM OUR VERY OWN @DFSWEATHER IN SLACK!!!

Any updates will be given in our VIP Slack Channel! <– click here to see our pricing to get the whole VIP experience!

Definitions of Stats used in articles via Fangraphs.com

K% (Strikeout Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has struck out a batter, calculated as strikeouts divided by total batters faced.

An average K% is 20%, anything above is considered great or elite

BB% (Walk Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has issued a walk, calculated as walks divided by total batters faced. Average BB% for pitchers is 7.7%, anything lower is considered great or elite

BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The rate at which the pitcher allows a hit when the ball is put in play. A BABIP at or near .300 is considered average. EXAMPLE: if a pitcher has a BABIP of .200 it means he could be getting lucky and balls in play are turned into outs if they have a BABIP of .400 he could be getting unlucky on balls in play and they are turning into hits.

xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): An estimate of a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, and fly balls allowed, assuming league average results on balls in play and home run to fly ball ratio. The Lower the xFIP the better. 3.80 is around average.

SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): An ERA estimator that attempts to more accurately capture a pitcher’s performance based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, home runs, and batted ball data. The lower the better 3.90 is considered average, so anything below that is great to excellent. Anything about is poor.

Hard% (Hard Contact Percentage): Percentage of hard-hit batted balls. Anything below 30% is considered average or better. the lower Hard% the better, meaning pitchers are giving up more soft contact.

wRC+: A rate statistic that credits a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treating them all equally. League average is 100, each point above or below that is one percentage point better or worse than league average. wRC+ is a better representation of offense value.

O-Swing% = Swings at pitches outside the zone/pitches outside the zone

Z-Swing%  = Swings at pitches inside the zone/pitches inside the zone

Swing% = Swings/Pitches

O-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches outside the zone / Swings on pitches outside the zone

Z-Contact%  = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches inside the zone / Swings on pitches inside the zone

SwStr% = Swings and misses/Total Pitches

 

Main Slate

Jeremy Hellickson (7.6k FD) (8k DK) (15.4k FD2) vs SD

The first name that gets written up is Hellickson, but hear me out. He comes in facing this Padres team who we like to pick on. They still have a 23% K rate against RHP and a low ISO of .114. Hellickson just faced these Padres two starts ago and went 6.2 innings with 8 K’s and scored 54 fanduel points. He is not a guy that will light up the radar gun, but he has been effective this year. He’s got an aEV in his career against the Padres of 86.8 mph which is fairly low and an xwOBA of just .290. All stats are showing that he is legit this year.

Trevor Bauer (9.6k FD) (11.7k DK) (22.8k FD2) @ CHC

Trevor Bauer has looked very good this year and has been as consistent as it comes. He was outstanding against the Tigers in his last start going 8 innings with 10 strikeouts. On the season so far, Bauer has 6 starts over 40 fanduel points. He has had only 1 start below 30 fanduel points and has gone 6+ in 7 of his 9 starts. The Cubs are running hot of late, but like the Tigers were, Bauer has the chance to shut them down tonight. So far this season, Bauer has a 27.2% K rate with a good 3.54 SIERA. His hard contact is up there at 38%, but he is getting 48% groundballs too.

Garrett Richards (8.5k FD) (7.8k DK) (15k FD2) @ TOR

I am not sure where the ownership of this game is going to be, but I love Richards more than Happ in this matchup. Do I hear, sliders vs Toronto? YES, WE DO! Richards throws his slider MORE than any other pitch, even his fastball. He throws his slider 38% of the time, and his fastball 36.55%. Against the Jays in his career, he has a 21% K rate and 28.5% whiff rate with an xwOBA of just .228 and xBA of .189. Both of those numbers are lower than his actual numbers against them. This year he has a 27% K rate and finally is healthy. Toronto has a 25.4% K rate vs RHP and a slightly below average wRC+ at 83. Richards has actually been more a reverse splits pitcher this year, dominating lefties, allowing just .260 wOBA. The Jays have 4/5 lefties/switch hitters projected in their lineup, and the more lefties the better for Richards tonight.

Caleb Smith (7.2k FD) (6.4k DK) (13k FD2) @ NYM

Smith comes into this game after his worst outing of the year and I think that could keep his ownership down in GPPs tonight. The Mets have scuffled vs LHP for a lot of this year, but have been a tad better of late. Smith has elite strikeout stuff but is walking way too many hitters. His K% is 31.5% but his walk rate is almost 13% and he’s walking almost 5 per 9. Despite those high walks, he still only has a 3.74 SIERA and has looked very good this year. Before his last start, he was able to get 25, 44, 58, and 46 fanduel points. His Fanduel price has dropped $400 since his last start, and I do think he has GPP upside in this matchup tonight.

Chris Sale (11.5k FD) (13.1k DK) (25.6k FD2) @ TB

Probably one of the chalk pitchers tonight is Sale against the Rays in Tampa Bay. Sale is as elite as they come and we all know that. He has 60+ point upside on fanduel and normally hovers around 40-50 points. Between him and Cole, I expect them to garner the most ownership given the matchups they are in. Sale has struck out at least 9 in his last 3 starts and the Rays have a 24% K rate to LHP in their L14. They also have just a .107 ISO and 76 wRC+. Sale is always in play when he takes the hill for the Sox.

Kevin Gausman (8.3k FD) (7.6k DK) (14.5k FD2) @ CWS

I know I keep writing up Gausman, but he’s been very good this season outside of just 3 starts. His price dropped $300 on the websites and he gets a much better matchup against the White Sox than the Red Sox. Before his starts vs BOS, he had 3 40 point fanduel games and one 30 point game. He has been constant around 5-7 strikeouts per start all year. Gausman actually has his highest SwStr% of his career this year at 11.2%. The White Sox are a team who can light people up and be sneaky, but like any offense, they can fold on any given night. They do have a 22% K rate in their L14, but the rest of their stats have looked very good. With the small discount from his last start, I think Gausman can turn in another 30-40 point fanduel performance tonight.

Gerrit Cole (11.8k FD) (12.9k DK) (24.6k FD2) vs SF

I don’t know why Cole is cheaper than Sale on DK and FD2 but $300 more on fanduel tonight. Cole actually has the better upside for strikeouts I think tonight as the Giants have a 28% K rate to RHP in their L14. Cole is also pitching at home, so that gives me a bump to him too. He has been able to show a bit more upside overall this season than Sale has and that’s why he gets the bump. Cole has the highest K% on this slate at a career-high 40.8% and has just a 2.08 SIERA. His WHIP sits under 0.80 and hitters are hitting just .165 against him this year. He has been dominating both sides of the plate, but a tad better vs LHH, also getting more K’s against lefties too. The Giants are likely to roll out equal lefties and righties tonight, we all know the upside for Cole, and if you can use him I would.

Luke Weaver (6.4k FD) (8.5k DK) (16k FD2) vs KC

I am still shocked at the price difference across the sites for Weaver. After a few rough outings, he has bounced back nicely with a 33 and 40 point fanduel games. This matchup is much harder for Weaver than the past (K potential wise). We did just see Mikolas pitch a CGSO against these same Royals last night though, and he isn’t a big strikeout guy. The Royals do only have an 18% K rate to RHP, but their ISO sits on the lower end at .127. Like Chop told me in my channel this morning, Weaver needs to be pitching like his life depends on it, because he may not be a starter much longer if he doesn’t turn it around. Despite the rough outings, he still hasn’t been hit all that hard this year, giving up just a 25% Hard%. His WHIP is a bit high for me a 1.36, but some of his statcast data doesn’t look that bad. Low launch angle, low xBA at .229 and an average xwOBA at .304. Weaver NEEDS to pitch well here tonight, and he’s cheap enough to use too.

Chad Bettis (6.7k FD) (6.3k DK) (12.7k FD2) @ LAD

I’m not sure many people will look to Bettis tonight on such a big slate, but he’s in a good spot. The Dodgers, as we all know are streaky and can fall flat at any point. Marquez pitched very well against them last night and Bettis has been much better on the road. He’s allowing a .110 LESS wOBA on the road and just over a .200 average. Bettis has never been a massive strikeout guy, but he can still get you about 5 per start which is good for his price. His ability to get groundballs help him, and since he’s been better on the road it makes me like him more tonight. I wonder what type of lineup the Dodgers will run out tonight. I wouldn’t use him in cash, but he’s a viable GPP play tonight.

Jhoulys Chacin (6.6k FD) (6.8k DK) (13.9k FD2) vs ARI

Arizona has still been scuffling of late and only scored 2 runs last night against Chase Anderson coming off the DL. Chacin has looked good this season, and very good over his last 3. He’s scored 31 fanduel points twice and 43 in his last start. His last start was against this Arizona team where he went 7 innings with 7 K’s and I see a repeat for Chacin tonight. Over his last 6 starts, he only has given up more than 2 ER once against the Reds. He is not a big strikeout guy, but this matchup with the Diamondbacks is a good one. Over their L14, they still are dead last in the MLB with a 30 wRC+, .217 wOBA, .076 ISO, and just .167 average. They do have a low BABIP, so they may start to get more hits falling soon, but I’ll continue to pick on them until they turn it around. Chacin should be able to get a few extra K’s than normal as the Dbacks have a 28.5% K rate in their L14.

MAIN SLATE RANKINGS

1. Gerrit Cole (all formats)
2. Chris Sale (all formats)
3. Garrett Richards (all formats, LOVE ON DK FOR SP2)
4. Trevor Bauer (all formats)
5. Jeremy Hellickson (GPP)
6. Chad Bettis (GPP)
7. Jhoulys Chacin (GPP)
8. Caleb Smith (GPP
9. Kevin Gausman (GPP)
10. Luke Weaver (GPP) 

Tonight, the GPP options can be flip-flopped, I just put rankings to help you. Cash options are Cole, Sale, Richards, and Bauer for me. I wouldn’t mind using any of the GPP options in my tournament lineups tonight! Good Lucky DFSARMY!!!