Welcome to the daily MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel, Drafktkings, and Fantasydraft!
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!
I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!
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Definitions of Stats used in articles via Fangraphs.com
K% (Strikeout Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has struck out a batter, calculated as strikeouts divided by total batters faced.
An average K% is 20%, anything above is considered great or elite
BB% (Walk Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has issued a walk, calculated as walks divided by total batters faced. Average BB% for pitchers is 7.7%, anything lower is considered great or elite
BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The rate at which the pitcher allows a hit when the ball is put in play. A BABIP at or near .300 is considered average. EXAMPLE: if a pitcher has a BABIP of .200 it means he could be getting lucky and balls in play are turned into outs if they have a BABIP of .400 he could be getting unlucky on balls in play and they are turning into hits.
xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): An estimate of a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, and fly balls allowed, assuming league average results on balls in play and home run to fly ball ratio. The Lower the xFIP the better. 3.80 is around average.
SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): An ERA estimator that attempts to more accurately capture a pitcher’s performance based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, home runs, and batted ball data. The lower the better 3.90 is considered average, so anything below that is great to excellent. Anything about is poor.
Hard% (Hard Contact Percentage): Percentage of hard-hit batted balls. Anything below 30% is considered average or better. the lower Hard% the better, meaning pitchers are giving up more soft contact.
wRC+: A rate statistic that credits a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treating them all equally. League average is 100, each point above or below that is one percentage point better or worse than league average. wRC+ is a better representation of offense value.
O-Swing% = Swings at pitches outside the zone/pitches outside the zone
Z-Swing% = Swings at pitches inside the zone/pitches inside the zone
Swing% = Swings/Pitches
O-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches outside the zone / Swings on pitches outside the zone
Z-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches inside the zone / Swings on pitches inside the zone
SwStr% = Swings and misses/Total Pitches
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Main Slate
Gio Gonzalez (8.8k FD) (11.9k DK) (23k FD2) vs SD
There are not a ton of big names on this slate tonight, and Gio has a fantastic matchup against the Padres. San Diego has been able to hit some lefties, but they are still striking out 24% of the time. Gio has been at a 25% K rate this year this season, but the one thing I’m not a fan of is his WHIP at 1.41. He has been able to get 52% groundballs and does not get hit too hard either though. Gonzalez is nearly lights out against lefties, but righties have been able to hit him a bit this year. Looking at the projected Padres lineup, they do have a 25.1% K rate to LHP on the season and they have an average DFSA grade of just 50.26.
Mike Foltynewicz (8.3k FD) (9.6k DK) (18.7k FD2) @ PHI
Folty has had a great season after a bit of a struggle the last two years. There are some faults on Folty this year, but he has been much better this year and has just 2 starts under 29 fanduel points. He has already faced the Phillies 3 times this year and has been great in all three of those starts. Foltynewciz has 17 innings, 21 strikeouts and just 4 earned runs in those starts compiling 116 total fanduel points. The Phillies are strikeout machines and have a 25.9% K rate in their L14 to RHP. I definitely see the upside in Mike Foltynewicz tonight.
Zack Greinke (9.2k FD) (12.1k DK) (23.1k FD2) @ MIL
This matchup just happened and he got us 34 fanduel points going 6 innings with 5 strikeouts. I do not like how Greinke’s strikeouts have not gone past 6 in his last 3 starts and that limits his upside, especially at his price tonight. Zack has still gone 6+ innings in all but 3 starts this year, and has had just 2 bad starts all year where he gave up 5 runs in each one. The Brewers have been hot of late but have a 25.8% K rate over their L14 vs RHP. He has been better at home this year, and with this being on the road I am a little concerned, but he still has a 3.06 SIERA on the season with 44.4% groundballs. If Buehler is going to be very chalky, I would not mind going to Grienke at lower ownership.
Chase Anderson (6.1k FD) (6.3k DK) (13.1k FD2) vs ARI
Normally I do not like to use a pitcher coming off the Disabled List, but Anderson was out because of food poisoning and not an arm injury. He comes back at a dirt cheap price across the board and has a great matchup too. Anderson had a rough outing before he got sick, but before that he was decent. He won’t get you a bunch of strikeouts but can go deep into games. We have been picking on the Diamondbacks for the last couple of weeks, and their stats have not gotten much better. They still have the highest K% in the L14 to RHP (29.6%) and also have a very low 30 wRC+. They have just a .217 wOBA and .173 average and Anderson has some great BvP numbers against them too. It is a small sample (just 48 at-bats), but they have just 7 hits and a very high 35.4% K rate. Considering he is not a big strikeout guy, he has the Dbacks number. I think he could be a tad chalky since he is so cheap, but I still love this play today.
Masahiro Tanaka (8.1k FD) (8.9k DK) (17.2k FD2) @ TEX
My favorite GPP play on the board today is Tanaka versus the strikeout happy Rangers. Yes, they are a dangerous offense, but they also strike out a ton too. Over their L14 vs RHP, they have a 26%K rate, with a .209 average, .120 ISO, .269 wOBA, and 62 wRC+. All of those numbers rank towards the bottom in that time span. The Rangers do have some good short-term success against Tanaka and that worries me a little, but his upside is still there. As I say every time Tanaka gets the ball, he is very home run prone, but still has a 22.5% K rate to help it. His K rate is down a bit from last season, but he has faced some very tough opponents this year. His strikeouts have been down of late, but Washington and Boston are two teams who rarely strikeout anyways. Despite all of the bad looking numbers, he still has a 3.68 SIERA this year so, he should have some regression coming. Tanaka still has a very high 13.8% SwStr% this season, and he has the strikeout upside.
Walker Buehler (9.5k FD) (9.3k DK) (17.7k FD2) vs COL
Buehler is the highest price pitcher on fanduel tonight, but he is just the 5th highest on DK and FD2. He has been amazing since being called up to the MLB and has not disappointed. He does look like the real deal and will look to keep it rolling tonight vs the Rockies at home. In 5 starts this year, he has scored 30, 33, 52, 40, and 24 fanduel points. Despite the struggles in that game, he was still able to get 7 strikeouts to even out his stat line a bit. Over his short MLB career, he has just 1 start with less than 6 strikeouts and also has gotten 8 twice. The Rockies are struggling a bit vs RHP in their L14 with a 26.7% K rate, and 64 wRC+. Walker Buehler has been able to keep up with his amazing strikeout numbers in the minors. I think he is the chalk tonight and rightfully so, he’s my favorite pitcher on the board too. It is always great to see that some of my favorite plays tonight are ranked at the top of the Research Station!
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
- Walker Buehler (all formats)
- Zack Greinke (all formats)
- Gio Gonzalez (all formats)
- Masahiro Tanaka (GPP)
- Chase Anderson (GPP)
- Mike Foltynewicz (GPP)
