Pitching Breakdown
Sunday, May 20th, 2018
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!
I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that in the write-up!
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Definitions of Stats used in articles via Fangraphs.com
K% (Strikeout Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has struck out a batter, calculated as strikeouts divided by total batters faced.
An average K% is 20%, anything above is considered great or elite
BB% (Walk Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has issued a walk, calculated as walks divided by total batters faced. Average BB% for pitchers is 7.7%, anything lower is considered great or elite
BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The rate at which the pitcher allows a hit when the ball is put in play. A BABIP at or near .300 is considered average. EXAMPLE: if a pitcher has a BABIP of .200 it means he could be getting lucky and balls in play are turned into outs if they have a BABIP of .400 he could be getting unlucky on balls in play and they are turning into hits.
xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): An estimate of a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, and fly balls allowed, assuming league average results on balls in play and home run to fly ball ratio. The Lower the xFIP the better. 3.80 is around average.
SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): An ERA estimator that attempts to more accurately capture a pitcher’s performance based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, home runs, and batted ball data. The lower the better 3.90 is considered average, so anything below that is great to excellent. Anything about is poor.
Hard% (Hard Contact Percentage): Percentage of hard-hit batted balls. Anything below 30% is considered average or better. the lower Hard% the better, meaning pitchers are giving up more soft contact.
wRC+: A rate statistic that credits a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treating them all equally. League average is 100, each point above or below that is one percentage point better or worse than league average. wRC+ is a better representation of offense value.
O-Swing% = Swings at pitches outside the zone/pitches outside the zone
Z-Swing% = Swings at pitches inside the zone/pitches inside the zone
Swing% = Swings/Pitches
O-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches outside the zone / Swings on pitches outside the zone
Z-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches inside the zone / Swings on pitches inside the zone
SwStr% = Swings and misses/Total Pitches
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Main Slate
Eduardo Rodriguez (7.7k FD) (9.4k DK) (17.8k FD2) vs BAL
Rodriguez has faced this Baltimore team already this year and had a great showing. His issue, that has been all season is throwing a ton of pitches during his starts. When he faced them earlier this year, he scored 49 fanduel points and had 8 K’s over 6 innings of work. Despite his high ERA, E-Rod is pitching to a 3.57 SIERA, which ranks top 10 on the day today. His walks can be an issue, or if he isn’t walking he’s getting into a lot of deep counts, but he still has a very high 28.5% K rate this year. He has been much better on the road this year and has struggled against RHH, which Baltimore will have at least 6 righties in their lineup tonight. Still, overall this season he’s allowing just over a .300 wOBA to batters this year which is not horrible. Lefties almost stand no chance against him as he has a 48% K rate to them this year. Baltimore has been very hot of late, and not striking out a ton but Rodriguez has good BvP numbers against them. Across 165 at-bats, the Orioles are hitting .236, with a .303 wOBA, and 28.4% K rate. E-Rod always has upside and he’s never safe, but in play for tournaments.
Noah Syndergaard (10.3k FD) (10.2k DK) (19.4k FD2) vs ARI
Thor has been a bit disappointing of late not getting more than 36 fanduel points in his last 3 starts. He comes in facing this Diamondback team at the perfect timing to turn it around. For his price, we want him to be able to get about 40-50 points on fanduel, which he is capable of doing. Arizona comes into this game with a very high 29.7% K rate and the lowest wRC+ vs RHP in the MLB. They were able to score 4 runs last night, but I doubt they do that against Thor today. I am surprised that he isn’t a higher favorite to open this game (-116), but the matchup is wonderful. Looking at our lineups page, the Dbacks projected lineups has just a .263 wOBA and .116 ISO vs RHP while having a 26.74% K rate this season. So from those, down to where they are now with a .223 wOBA and .084 ISO, we see Thor is a great play this afternoon.
Stephen Strasburg (10.5k FD) (13.4k DK) (25.8k FD2) vs LAD
One thing that I did notice, he is only $200 more expensive than the next on fanduel, but he is MUCH more expensive on DraftKings and Fantasydraft than the next guy. He has the 2nd best SIERA on the day at 3.07 and he has a WHIP at just 1.03. Strasburg has been very good so far this season with a 28.2% K rate and just 5.4% walk rate. I won’t be playing Alex Wood today against Stras, but I do love Strasburg today. This Dodgers team has had some history against him. Over 126 at-bats they are hitting just .190 with a .263 wOBA and a 33.3% K rate. He has not had fewer than 5 strikeouts in a game this year and usually hovers around 7-8 per game. Surprisingly, RHH have a higher hard contact rate vs Strasburg, but they aren’t hitting any better against him. This season he’s allowing just a .279 wOBA to all hitters and has been fantastic all year. I love him in all formats today.
Aaron Nola (9.6k FD) (10.8k DK) (21.3k FD2) @ STL
One of the later games in the main slate this afternoon Nola comes to face the Cardinals team who has been okay of late. We do know how they can go cold at any time, and Nola is having a great season thus far. Over their L14 vs RHP, the Cardinals have a 22.9% K rate and Nola has a 3.53 SIERA with a 23% K rate on the season. Nola has gone at least 6 innings in 7 of his 9 starts this season and has gone 7 in 4 of his last 5. He’s riding a 5 game winning streak where he has not scored less than 34 fanduel points and has topped 64. During this streak, he has been all over with strikeouts being as low as 4 and as high as 12. Nola is an electric young pitcher and has amazing strikeout upside. I see him going 6 innings tonight, getting about 6-8 strikeouts. The Cardinals projected lineup has just 3 lefties in it, and Nola has been lights out against RHH this year. Overall on the season, he has allowed just a .248 wOBA and .216 BAA, allowing just 22.3% hard contact. With the top two priced guys on fanduel in great spots, I think Nola could be a tad under-owned on this main slate today.
Jake Odorizzi (7.1k FD) (7.6k DK) (14.5k FD2) vs MIL
Not a pretty play here today, but I do see Odorizzi’s upside in this matchup against the Brewers. We all have known the struggle with the Brewers, they either hit tons of home runs or strike out a ton. Odorizzi has actually been very consistent this year having just 2 starts with less than 27 fanduel points. He also has topped 30 fanduel points 5 times this season and is always cheap. He’s been fairly good this year and has a 22.3% K rate and allowing just a .222 BAA. His walks are very high for me and same with his WHIP over 1.20, but he has amazing upside today. The Brewers have a 25.7% strikeout rate against RHP in their L14, and Odorizzi has mainly been around 5 strikeouts per game this season. He has been better since the calendar turned to May, and has pitched better at home too. No surprise lefties have had more success against him, but MIL only has 3 in their projected lineup right now. I think Odorizzi has great upside in tournaments this afternoon.
Jordan Lyles (6.9k FD) (8.3k DK) (15.9k FD2) @ PIT
It seems like fanduel doesn’t agree with his recent success as he’s still under 7k after two amazing starts. Lyles finally has gotten the starting nod for San Diego the last two games and he has gotten 30 and 62 fanduel points in those starts. This season (starting and bullpen) he has about a strikeout per inning and has 16 combined K’s in his last 2 starts. Lyles fairly split neutral pitcher, giving up 40% groundballs and flyballs and pitching in PIT today should give him some upside. Lyles is giving up just 29% Hard% which is lower than average. He has been able to generate a career-high 11.3% SwStr% so far this season. People do not like to pick on the Pirates, but they, just like any offense can go cold for a day. Lyles has seen an uptick in velocity on his fastball almost 2-3 MPH from last year and has a top 30 whiff rate at 28.57% this year. He has increased his FB and CB usage this year and that could be part of his success. I don’t think anyone will be on Lyles this afternoon and he could be sneaky.
Reynaldo Lopez (5.7k FD) (7.1k DK) (13.9k FD2) vs TEX
I don’t think people ever go this low for pitching. Texas loves to strikeout and I will take advantage of it. Mind you, this is a STRICT GPP play and only if you are playing more than 1 lineup. He has not really been good this year and only has a 15% K rate on the season. He’s a flyball pitcher and gives up 33% hard contact too. The reason I like him is his dirt cheap price and the fact that the Rangers have a 26% K rate vs RHP in their L14. Guaranteed Rate Field ranks towards the bottom in park factors this season and that will help him today. The Rangers are normally a good power hitting team, but in their L14 vs RHP, they have the 6th lowest ISO in the MLB at .125. Like I said, large-field, multi lineup play, but he could surprise us this afternoon.
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
- Stephen Strasburg (all formats)
- Noah Syndergaard (all formats)
- Aaron Nola (all formats)
- Eduardo Rodriguez (lean GPP)
- Jake Odorizzi (GPP)
- Jordan Lyles (GPP)
- Reynaldo Lopez (GPP)
