Pitching Breakdown
Friday, May 18th, 2018
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
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I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that in the write-up!
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Definitions of Stats used in articles via Fangraphs.com
K% (Strikeout Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has struck out a batter, calculated as strikeouts divided by total batters faced.
An average K% is 20%, anything above is considered great or elite
BB% (Walk Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has issued a walk, calculated as walks divided by total batters faced. Average BB% for pitchers is 7.7%, anything lower is considered great or elite
BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The rate at which the pitcher allows a hit when the ball is put in play. A BABIP at or near .300 is considered average. EXAMPLE: if a pitcher has a BABIP of .200 it means he could be getting lucky and balls in play are turned into outs if they have a BABIP of .400 he could be getting unlucky on balls in play and they are turning into hits.
xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): An estimate of a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, and fly balls allowed, assuming league average results on balls in play and home run to fly ball ratio. The Lower the xFIP the better. 3.80 is around average.
SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): An ERA estimator that attempts to more accurately capture a pitcher’s performance based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, home runs, and batted ball data. The lower the better 3.90 is considered average, so anything below that is great to excellent. Anything about is poor.
Hard% (Hard Contact Percentage): Percentage of hard-hit batted balls. Anything below 30% is considered average or better. the lower Hard% the better, meaning pitchers are giving up more soft contact.
wRC+: A rate statistic that credits a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treating them all equally. League average is 100, each point above or below that is one percentage point better or worse than league average. wRC+ is a better representation of offense value.
O-Swing% = Swings at pitches outside the zone/pitches outside the zone
Z-Swing% = Swings at pitches inside the zone/pitches inside the zone
Swing% = Swings/Pitches
O-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches outside the zone / Swings on pitches outside the zone
Z-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches inside the zone / Swings on pitches inside the zone
SwStr% = Swings and misses/Total Pitches
Main Slate
Max Scherzer (11.6k FD) (14k DK) (27.2k FD2) vs LAD
The first thing I will say about Max is please watch the weather here this evening. Weather aside, Max is the best pitcher on this slate tonight and his numbers show it. He has the lowest SIERA on the day at 2.11 with a 40% strikeout rate. He’s barely allowing any baserunners on base with a 0.82 WHIP this season. He comes in facing a Dodgers team with a 22% K rate in their L14. Max has had success against their current roster, allowing just a .165 average, .235 wOBA, and a 36.8% K rate over 103 at-bats. Max is as consistent as they come. Make sure to watch the weather with him tonight. If it’s clear a top option tonight.
Jacob deGrom (10k FD) (9.8k DK) (18.4k FD2) vs ARI
In a way, I really hope that Washington plays tonight and people look right over/under deGrom. He’s coming off an elbow injury and only pitched 45 pitches last start after struggling in the first inning after a lengthy rain delay He said there was no elbow pain and it was just precautionary reasons. Tonight he gets to face a strikeout happy Diamondbacks team at home too. Over the L14 vs RHP, they have the 2nd highest K% at 28% and have the LOWEST wRC+ at 40, and lowest wOBA at .232. They simply are not getting it done of late. deGrom was dominant before he hurt his elbow, and if the Mets want to stay somewhat close in the race he will need to stay healthy and pitch well. Despite being hurt and having a few rough outings, he still has a very high 32% K rate with just a 3.00 SIERA this season. Looking at our new Lineups Page, the projected Dbacks lineup has a 26% K rate and just a .271 wOBA vs RHP this year. This is a perfect start for deGrom to bounce back and show us he is healthy.
Sean Newcomb (9.2k FD) (11.5k DK) (22.4k FD2) vs MIA
Wow, his price has JUMPED way up. Almost a $1,000 increase on Fanduel from his last start vs MIA. Well, like I said, he just faced this Marlins team and totally dominated them through 6 innings. Over his last 3 starts he has put up 55, 46, and 46 fanduel points getting no less than 6 strikeouts in those starts. The Marlins are not striking out a ton lately, but I can easily see him getting 6 again this start. He’s pitching with an average 3.83 SIERA with a very good 28.4% K rate this year. Newcomb has not allowed much hard contact this year at just 26% and has been able to get near 50% groundballs. Sean has been very good to both sides of the plate allowing less than a .300 wOBA to lefties and righties. His home/road splits are not the best, but if that is the only bad stat on him, I’m willing to take a chance and ride the hot hand. I do hope his elevated price across the sites will make people pass on him which would make me love him even more for GPPs tonight.
Mike Clevinger (8.8k FD) (9.1k DK) (17.8k FD2) @ HOU
Clevinger has been very good this season and has gone 5 straight starts with 6 or more innings pitched. Houston has been a little shaky of late and pitchers have been doing very well against them. He’s been getting more strikeouts over his past 4 starts which is a positive sign. The Astros are never a team we like to pick on, but for tournaments, Clevinger has the upside tonight. He has shown a 21.2% K rate on the season thus far and has knocked his walk rate in half from last year. Walks are always his problem, but he’s been much better this year with them. Aside from his start vs the Yankees, he hasn’t had more than 2 walks this season. He has not been hit overly hard this year (28.7% Hard%) and still has a good 47.6% groundball rate. I think this game has what it takes to be a solid pitching duel.
Charlie Morton (9.7k FD) (12.2k DK) (23.8k FD2) vs CLE
Not many of the Astros pitchers are having bad seasons, and Morton has been one of their top pitchers. Their whole rotation has been simply amazing this year and they have a good matchup here. He’s pitching to his best SIERA in his career at 2.93 and isn’t getting hard either. Morton is allowing just 25.5% hard contact with almost 58% groundball rate. Over their L14 vs RHP, the Indians have a 25% K rate and Morton has a 32.3% K rate this year with under a 1.00 WHIP. When we look back at our lineups page, this year vs RHP, the Indians have less than a .300 wOBA with a 24.36% K rate. Morton has only 2 starts this year with less than 46 fanduel points and has 3 starts with more than 10 strikeouts. Morton will give you innings as he has gone 6 innings in all but 2 starts this year. Morton could be lower owned against this Indians team tonight and makes for a fantastic play.
CC Sabathia (7.5k FD) (7.5k DK) (15k FD2) @ KC
Here’s a name I did not think was going to show up tonight. No one will look here to play CC, but he actually has been very good this year. Over 102 at-bats, they have not had the best success with a .196 average, and .247 wOBA. The Royals have the 5th lowest wRC+ vs LHP in their L14 and have not been hitting for much power either. CC is not a big strikeout guy but he gets it done by limiting hard contact. This season, he’s allowing an average EV of just 84 mph which is excellent. He has an excellent WHIP at 1.02 and a slightly above average SIERA at 3.97. He gets to pitch in Kansas City here tonight which is a rather large ballpark and usually favors the pitchers. The Yanks finally get to play again and I think they have a good game and CC has a chance at the win and QS tonight.
Kyle Freeland (7.8k FD) (9.3k DK) (17.5k FD2) @ SF
We get a big park upgrade for Freeland here against the Giants on the road. Freeland has looked amazing this year and is on a bit of a hot streak. He’s gone at least 6 innings in his last 4 starts racking up 55, 31, 49, and 47 fanduel points in those starts. He has a little high SIERA at 4.13, but it is to be expected when his home park is Coors. Freeland has been able to get 46% groundballs and is not getting hit very hard either. Against LHP in their L14, the Giants have a high 24% K rate but have been rather hot. Freeland, like CC, has a very low aEV at just 85 mph, and pitching in this big park in SF will help him out too. The Giants do have some good righties, where Freeland has struggled against, but I do think he comes in low owned and can put up a solid 30+ fanduel point game here tonight. The Rockies have a fantastic matchup against Holland, so I think his chances of a win are good as well.
Tonight, I wouldn’t mind a flier on Jake Arrieta while you are MME’ing, his strikeouts are down which I do not like, but he has had some success against the Cards. This game has a rather low implied total and Vegas things it could be a pitcher’s duel. I can see Jake having a good game, and he just missed the cut as a mainstay in my article.
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
- Max Scherzer (all formats, weather depending)
- Jacob deGrom (all formats)
- Charlie Morton (all formats)
- Sean Newcomb (all formats)
- Mike Clevinger (GPP)
- Kyle Freeland (GPP)
- CC Sabathia (GPP)
I will be in and out of Slack during the day today for any questions! Feel free to ask anyhing after reading this in my channel #mdell-mlb-pitching!
