Pitching Breakdown
Monday, May 15th, 2018
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!
I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that in the write-up!
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Definitions of Stats used in articles via Fangraphs.com
K% (Strikeout Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has struck out a batter, calculated as strikeouts divided by total batters faced.
An average K% is 20%, anything above is considered great or elite
BB% (Walk Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has issued a walk, calculated as walks divided by total batters faced. Average BB% for pitchers is 7.7%, anything lower is considered great or elite
BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The rate at which the pitcher allows a hit when the ball is put in play. A BABIP at or near .300 is considered average. EXAMPLE: if a pitcher has a BABIP of .200 it means he could be getting lucky and balls in play are turned into outs if they have a BABIP of .400 he could be getting unlucky on balls in play and they are turning into hits.
xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): An estimate of a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, and fly balls allowed, assuming league average results on balls in play and home run to fly ball ratio. The Lower the xFIP the better. 3.80 is around average.
SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): An ERA estimator that attempts to more accurately capture a pitcher’s performance based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, home runs, and batted ball data. The lower the better 3.90 is considered average, so anything below that is great to excellent. Anything about is poor.
Hard% (Hard Contact Percentage): Percentage of hard-hit batted balls. Anything below 30% is considered average or better. the lower Hard% the better, meaning pitchers are giving up more soft contact.
wRC+: A rate statistic that credits a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treating them all equally. League average is 100, each point above or below that is one percentage point better or worse than league average. wRC+ is a better representation of offense value.
O-Swing% = Swings at pitches outside the zone/pitches outside the zone
Z-Swing% = Swings at pitches inside the zone/pitches inside the zone
Swing% = Swings/Pitches
O-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches outside the zone / Swings on pitches outside the zone
Z-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches inside the zone / Swings on pitches inside the zone
SwStr% = Swings and misses/Total Pitches
Yesterday’s Results: (here I will post fantasy points from previous day’s picks)
Main Slate
Nick Pivetta (7.1k FD) (7.2k DK) (14.7k FD2) @ BAL
Pivetta has had an up and down season thus far but he’s an interesting GPP play on this slate tonight. He scored 42 fanduel points last start out in just 5 innings and has shown up his K upside. I do think he’s a tad cheap given the upside he has. Baltimore has been red-hot over the past couple of weeks, but hot offenses will slow down. I do think the recent success of Baltimore will keep people off him and he makes for a great low-owned tournament play. Pivetta this season is pitching with a 3.53 SIERA and getting hit hard just 24.5% of the time while inducing 43% ground balls. While looking at the Orioles projected lineup, they have just 3 lefties in it, and none besides Chris Davis scare me at all. The more righties the better since Pivetta has a .252 wOBA to RHH which is .113 points lower than what he gives up to lefties. Mr. Pivetta is striking out 32.5% of the righties he faces and under a 1 WHIP to them. He is also giving up just 19% Hard contact to RHH compared to 29% to LHH. Like I said, the more right-handed hitters the better for me on Pivetta tonight.
Masahiro Tanaka (8.3k FD) (8.4k DK) (16.1k FD2) @ WSH
Here is a play that is definitely hit or miss, but I do like the chances for Tanaka to have a decent game tonight. People will be off of him because he’s playing the Nationals on the road and he has HR issues. Tanaka has already given up 8 HR this year and that is his biggest problem. Pitching at Yankee Stadium does not help that issue much, but he’s actually had slightly better numbers on the road this season so far. He’s allowing a .271 wOBA on the road with under a .200 average, still, the HR ball is his issue (4 given up on road). Tanaka has an xFIP of 3.55 on the road and under a 1 WHIP, being able to generate 27.5% K rate so far. His SIERA is almost a full run lower than his ERA, so positive regression may be coming for him. When he gets ahead in the count he is much better, and he has been more this year as he has a career-high 70.5% F-Strike%. I do like him for GPPs tonight and I think he will be lower owned too.
Gio Gonzalez (8.9k FD) (8.7k DK) (17.1k FD2) vs NYY
I’m sure you did not expect to see Gio in this article tonight. There are a few things that really stood out to me about him that makes me like him for GPPs tonight. The first thing I noticed is the Yanks have the 7th worst wRC+ against LHP in their L14 games. We all know they can light up lefties with power, but outside of a few HR, they aren’t doing all that much against lefties of late and have a 23% K rate. Gio has looked very good this year so far and what I loved was his aEV against is just 82 mph. Hitters are also hitting the ball less distance and 7 mph less off the bat over his last 3 weeks. Gio has a 26% K rate this season so far and is getting an insane amount of groundballs over his last 3 weeks (66%). He has been very good at home so far and lefties can barely hit anything off him. The Yanks obviously will have a bunch of righties tonight, and Gio can struggle against them (1.55 WHIP, 9% lower K%), but I do think he COULD have a good game and will not garner any ownership because he’s facing the Yankees. If you want a low owned GPP pitcher who I can see having a good game, here he is.
Eduardo Rodriguez (7.8k FD) (9.2k DK) (17.7k FD2) vs OAK
A few weeks ago I did not want to pick on Oakland with lefties. Since then though, they have a 30% strikeout rate against LHP and have the 4th lowest wRC+ at just 71 with a .103 ISO. Oakland hasn’t seen a ton of E-Rod, but in 42 at-bats have just a .119 average with .211 wOBA. It is a small sample, but success is success. In this small sample, he also has a 38% K rate and just 3 walks. This season Rodriguez throws a lot of pitches and his walks are what hurt him, but he still is getting 11 K/9 and has a great SIERA of 3.59 this year. Despite the struggles he can have, he still has gone at least 6 innings in 4 of his 7 starts this year and has scored at least 30 fanduel points in 5 of 7 starts. This year he has shown a career-high in SwStr% at 12.7% but is getting much less first strikes, which is hurting him. The A’s put up 6 runs last night against Porcello and company, but I think E-Rod could have a solid outing if he is able to keep his walks and pitch count in check.
Noah Syndergaard (10k FD) (10.8k DK) (21.2k FD2) vs TOR
Toronto has been striking out a lot in their L14 with a 26.5% K rate. The great thing here, our boy Noah throws his slider about 18-19% of the time which we all know the Blue Jays have struggled with. Syndergaard is getting 14.4% SwStr% and still getting 36.3% O-Swing% so far this season. He hasn’t produced what we want so far but still has had 4 games with more than 40 fanduel points. At a price of 10k on fanduel, we do want that 40+. What I do like about him is he is consistently going 6+ innings. The Jays will only have 4 lefties in their lineup tonight and none really scare me that much besides Granderson who has some pop. I do think Syndergaard is a good pivot off some of the other pitchers who could be chalky. According to our new lineups page, they Jays starting 9 has an average of 25.9% K rate with an average DFSA Grade of 56.16. I love him in all formats tonight.
Zack Greinke (9.5k FD) (11.8k DK) (23.1k FD2) vs ARI
A guy who I think will be lower owned than Syndergaard is Greinke. He has a fantastic matchup with the Brewers and has been very good this year at home. He comes into this start with a 27.2% K rate and just 3% walk rate with a 3.05 SIERA. Greinke is a guy who has gotten hit fairly hard the last two seasons and it is no different this year, but he still has a 43% GB rate. The Brewers have the 4th highest K% in their L14 vs RHP at 26.9%. He’s not allowing many baserunners as his WHIP stands at 1.03 and grabs almost 10 K/9. He’s been consistent with 34+ fanduel points in 5 of his 8 starts this season so far and just had 40 last start. Zack has gone 6+ innings in all but 3 starts this year so we can expect that extra QS bonus on fanduel. I love our new lineups page that is finished because we see an OB/ISO, which is OBP+ISO for the projected starting lineup. The Brewers have a .426 OB/ISO which is on the lower side. I do think he will be lower owned than Syndergaard and Cole tonight.
Gerrit Cole (11.8k FD) (13.9k DK) (26.4k FD2) @ LAA
Cole is a VERY high price and maybe it will cause people to not play him. If that is the case, I LOVE him even more. Just looking at the BvP against him makes me like him. Over 99 at-bats, the Angels have a .162 average, .222 OBP, and just a .208 wOBA with a 29.2% K rate. He still has an unsustainable 41.4% K rate this season, but until it goes down we cannot ignore what he has done. When a guy has EVERY start this year over 40 fanduel points, we love playing him. He has been the most consistent pitcher in DFS this year and has not gone less than 6 innings in any start. I love Cole a ton tonight and he already scored 43 against the Angels this year. He is VERY expensive and for the price, we do want 50+ and he has shown that he can do that. He’s scored 50+ fanduel points 6 times already this year and I love his chances for a win tonight. I think people will be scared off him because he’s facing the Angels and they do not strikeout a lot, but I’ll take a guy with 60 point upside at low ownership.
Mike Leake (6.4k FD) (5.8k DK) (11k FD2) vs TEX
My low owned GPP play for tonight is Mike Leake. I doubt anyone will be on him or even look this low in the pitcher pool. He has had an up and down year, but at his price what he’s done we love to see. He has more than 24 fanduel points in 5 of his starts this year and really has had just 1 blow up game. He’s gone 6 innings in 5 of his 8 starts this year. Leake comes into this start facing a Texas team who over their L14 vs RHP they have a 33.4% K rate. Yes, you read that right, 33.4%. They also have just a 70 wRC+ and .217 average. On the lineups page, they have 6 of 9 of their projected lineup with higher than a 20% K rate with 3 over 30%. I remember the start a lot of people were on Leake (that was the explosion he had), and tonight I will be on him because of this matchup and he’s been very good for the most part. His advanced stats are not pretty and he’s giving up a high wOBA to both sides, but I like him as a low owned GPP option with upside in this matchup tonight.
Alex Wood (8.6k FD) (10k DK) (19.6k FD2) @ MIA
I have been going back and forth on Wood during my research today. I did notice that Wood has been better to RHH this year. Luckily for him, the Marlins have 8 of them in their lineup tonight. He’s allowing just a .239 wOBA to RHH compared to .300 to lefties. Wood has also allowed less wOBA on the road this season too. The thing about the Marlins is they have not been striking out a lot, they can also single the crap out of pitchers, but don’t hit for much power either. Mr. Wood here has also struck out more hitters on the road than at home (+8% K rate on the road). He still holds a WHIP just at 1, but just hasn’t been as electric as he was last year. I do think he can be lower owned and would not mind him in tournaments tonight, especially with all the weather problems we have tonight.
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
1. Gerrit Cole (all formats)
2. Zack Greinke (all formats)
3. Noah Syndergaard (all formats)
4. Alex Wood (lean GPP)
5. Nick Pivetta (GPP)
6. Gio Gonzalez (GPP)
7. Eduardo Rodriguez (GPP)
8. Masahiro Tanaka (GPP)
9. Mike Leake (GPP)
Good Luck DFSARMY!
