Welcome to the May 28th edition of the daily MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel, DraftKings, and Fantasydraft!
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
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I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!
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Definitions of Stats used in articles via Fangraphs.com
K% (Strikeout Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has struck out a batter, calculated as strikeouts divided by total batters faced.
An average K% is 20%, anything above is considered great or elite
BB% (Walk Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has issued a walk, calculated as walks divided by total batters faced. Average BB% for pitchers is 7.7%, anything lower is considered great or elite
BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The rate at which the pitcher allows a hit when the ball is put in play. A BABIP at or near .300 is considered average. EXAMPLE: if a pitcher has a BABIP of .200 it means he could be getting lucky and balls in play are turned into outs if they have a BABIP of .400 he could be getting unlucky on balls in play and they are turning into hits.
xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): An estimate of a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, and fly balls allowed, assuming league average results on balls in play and home run to fly ball ratio. The Lower the xFIP the better. 3.80 is around average.
SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): An ERA estimator that attempts to more accurately capture a pitcher’s performance based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, home runs, and batted ball data. The lower the better 3.90 is considered average, so anything below that is great to excellent. Anything about is poor.
Hard% (Hard Contact Percentage): Percentage of hard-hit batted balls. Anything below 30% is considered average or better. the lower Hard% the better, meaning pitchers are giving up more soft contact.
wRC+: A rate statistic that credits a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treating them all equally. League average is 100, each point above or below that is one percentage point better or worse than league average. wRC+ is a better representation of offense value.
O-Swing% = Swings at pitches outside the zone/pitches outside the zone
Z-Swing% = Swings at pitches inside the zone/pitches inside the zone
Swing% = Swings/Pitches
O-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches outside the zone / Swings on pitches outside the zone
Z-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches inside the zone / Swings on pitches inside the zone
SwStr% = Swings and misses/Total Pitches
EARLY SLATE
Gio Gonzalez (9.2k FD) (10k DK) (18.8k FD2) @ BAL
With the first game on the docket this afternoon, Gio takes on Baltimore. The Orioles have been very bad of late and are a team that I like to pick on. They have some hitters who can hit LHP, but it is not happening. Over their last week, they have a 26% K rate with just a 54 wRC+. Their wOBA sits at just .252 and are hitting under .200. Gonzalez has seen some of these hitters a bunch and they have 123 at-bats against him. Over those, he is allowing just a .220 average, .291 wOBA, and has a 29% K rate against them. Gio is getting about 9 K/9 and is getting 51.6% groundballs this year with a 28.5% Hard%. He has been very consistent this year and has 2 40 point fanduel games in his last 3 starts and has topped 52 fanduel points this season before. The Nationals should be able to win this one easy with Cobb throwing for the O’s, and it makes Gonzalez a great play.
David Price (8k FD) (10.2k DK) (17.2k FD2) vs TOR
David Price is much more appealing on fanduel this afternoon than the other sites simply because of the price. After some really bad games, Price has seemed to turn it around against 3 different AL East opponents. He has scored 46, 55, and 34 fanduel points in his last 3 starts. Price faced this Jays team on May 12 and was able to get 6 k’s in 5.1 IP. His strikeouts have been up in his last two games and Toronto has a 29.7% K rate over the last week vs LHP. They have immense power, but they can also strikeout a ton. The Blue Jays roster has seen Price A LOT with 201 at-bats. Over those, they have a .214 average and .281 wOBA with a 31.3% K rate. Toronto has mostly RHH, as usual, but Price has a higher K% (24.5%) against RHH rather than just 16.7% to LHH. It looks like Price has finally turned around his season and will look to take down Toronto again.
Justin Verlander (11.6k FD) (12.6k DK) (24.6k FD2) @ NYY
Verlander gets his second go around with the Yankees, this time in New York. Verlander has been pitching out of his mind this season. He has a career-high 33.5% K rate this season and his WHIP sits a 0.71. Along with a career-high K%, he also has a career low BB% at just 5.4%. Good luck trying to make hard contact against him because he only is giving up 23.4%. Being a flyball pitcher at Yankee Stadium is never good, but Verlander has had success vs the Yanks. They have just 88 at-bats against him but are hitting only .182 with a 37.5% K rate. The Yankees have not been striking out as much as they were earlier. They actually have the 4th lowest K% to RHP in the last 14 days. Verlander scored 70 fanduel points in his last start vs NYY and has been able to get 7-9 strikeouts nearly every start. The Astros pitching staff is been very good this year and Verlander will look to keep it rolling vs the Yanks today.
Jacob deGrom (10.7k FD) (11.1k DK) (25.8k FD2) @ ATL
It was surprising to see that deGrom was more expensive than Verlander on FD2 today, but comes at a hefty discount on FD and DK. People do not like to pick on the Braves, but with deGrom today, I have no problem with it. He has faced them twice this year and looked amazing in both starts. His last one against them he only went 4 innings (when he got injured) and still got us 30 fanduel points. Before that, he went 7 and struck out 10 vs the Braves, good for 55 fanduel points. Since coming off the DL he has been great in two starts scoring 49 and 67 fanduel points. deGrom has also gone 7 innings in both of those starts which shows he is healthy. The Braves are trending down and their K% is up to 22% in their L14 vs RHP. They also have one of the lower wRC+ in the MLB at just 67 and an ISO of .085. Jacob is having one of, if not the best season of his career right now. He comes into this start with a 33.3% K rate with a 0.99 WHIP and a 2.74 SIERA. No one is really hitting him that hard (25.2% Hard%) and he has a career-high 15% SwStr% this year. I love deGrom in all formats this afternoon.
Tyler Skaggs (8.8k FD) (9.2k DK) (18.8k FD2) @ DET
Not always a team I like to pick on, but they are also trending down. Skaggs has been pretty solid for the Angels this year butting up 4 30 fanduel point games and 3 40 point games. I wish he went deeper into games as he has only gone 6 IP in 4 starts this year. Skaggs has been around the 6-8 strikeout mark in his last 5 starts and has a 25.4% K rate this season with a 3.50 SIERA. Hard contact is an issue for him, and the Tigers can do well. I won’t be using him in cash games today, but I do like him for tournaments.
Luke Weaver (7.6k FD) (8.3k DK) (16k FD2) @ MIL
Since struggling in two straight starts, Weaver has shifted gears and put up two straight 40 fanduel point games. He hasn’t been able to get the win in those but does have 2 QS. Aside from the little stretch there, Weaver has been very good this year and is an amazing young talent for the Red Birds. Weaver was priced up to 8.8k on fanduel earlier this year and will be back up there shortly. The Brewers are a hot or cold team and they have the tendency to strikeout a lot. Over their L14 vs RHP, they have the 7th highest K% at 25.1%. Weaver’s strikeouts have been on the upward trend over his last 4 starts and as long as he stays cheap, I like using him.
EARLY SLATE RANKINGS
- Justin Verlander (all formats)
- Jacob deGrom (all formats)
- Gio Gonzalez (all formats)
- Luke Weaver (lean GPP)
- David Price (lean GPP)
- Tyler Skaggs (GPP)
