Welcome to the daily MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel and DraftKings!

In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.

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I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.

Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!

NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!

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Definitions of Stats used in articles via Fangraphs.com

K% (Strikeout Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has struck out a batter, calculated as strikeouts divided by total batters faced.

An average K% is 20%, anything above is considered great or elite

BB% (Walk Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has issued a walk, calculated as walks divided by total batters faced. Average BB% for pitchers is 7.7%, anything lower is considered great or elite

BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The rate at which the pitcher allows a hit when the ball is put in play. A BABIP at or near .300 is considered average. EXAMPLE: if a pitcher has a BABIP of .200 it means he could be getting lucky and balls in play are turned into outs if they have a BABIP of .400 he could be getting unlucky on balls in play and they are turning into hits.

xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): An estimate of a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, and fly balls allowed, assuming league average results on balls in play and home run to fly ball ratio. The Lower the xFIP the better. 3.80 is around average.

SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): An ERA estimator that attempts to more accurately capture a pitcher’s performance based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, home runs, and batted ball data. The lower the better 3.90 is considered average, so anything below that is great to excellent. Anything about is poor.

Hard% (Hard Contact Percentage): Percentage of hard-hit batted balls. Anything below 30% is considered average or better. the lower Hard% the better, meaning pitchers are giving up more soft contact.

wRC+: A rate statistic that credits a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treating them all equally. League average is 100, each point above or below that is one percentage point better or worse than league average. wRC+ is a better representation of offense value.

O-Swing% = Swings at pitches outside the zone/pitches outside the zone

Z-Swing%  = Swings at pitches inside the zone/pitches inside the zone

Swing% = Swings/Pitches

O-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches outside the zone / Swings on pitches outside the zone

Z-Contact%  = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches inside the zone / Swings on pitches inside the zone

SwStr% = Swings and misses/Total Pitches

 

Early Slate Rankings

1. Justin Verlander (all formats)
2. Michael Fulmer (all formats)
3. Zack Godley (lean GPP)
4. Michael Wacha (GPP)
5. Jake Junis (GPP)

Outside of Verlander for this early slate, every pitcher is VERY risky for cash games. My opinion, lock up Verlander in cash/gpps, then other GPP lineups get different with the other guys listed!

 

MAIN SLATE

C.C. Sabathia (7.5k FD) (7.9k DK) @ TEX

I do not always like picking on Texas in Texas but I am intrigued by CC tonight. The Rangers are a dangerous team, but they also strike out a ton. Tanaka didn’t do well, and German got 6 k’s despite the bad start. The Rangers have been worst vs LHP in their L14 with a 30% K rate and 52 wRC+. Sabathia still has a very low aEV of 84 and he’s getting a good amount of groundballs. CC is allowing just a .290 xwOBA this year and isn’t getting hit very hard (28% hard%). He won’t light up the gun anymore, but can still grab a few strikeouts per start. I think facing Texas can help him tonight.

Tyler Skaggs (9.1k FD) (9.6k DK) @ TOR

I’m not sure how many people will be on him with that elevated price tag against Toronto. Skaggs has been very good, and healthy this year and will look to get the Angels back in the win column. Richards struggled in the first inning yesterday but an error didn’t help him and he gave up just 1 ER. Outside of his start against Boston this year, Skaggs has been consistent to date. Since that start, he has 2 40 point fanduel games and 3 30 point fanduel games. He’s pitching to a 3.54 SIERA so far this year, a 25% K rate, and 51% groundballs. He, like normal lefties, are much better against LHH, but righties are all that great against him. He will give up hard contact, but has been able to limit damage and gets about  9 K/9. I do think he’s a bit risky, but there are not too many options that are “safe” for cash tonight.

Jacob deGrom (10.4k FD) (13.2k DK) vs MIA

The chalk of the main slate tonight will be deGrom. He faces a pesky Marlins team, but I’m not too worried about them. Over their L14, they have actually been one of the hotter teams in the MLB vs RHP, but deGrom can shut any offense down. deGrom seems to be healthy now and has a 34.3% K rate this season with a very low 2.64 SIERA. Hitters are not making hard contact against deGrom this year (24%) and he has a career-high 15.4% SwStr%. We know the Marlins won’t hit for much power, but they are very pesky with singles. He’s been lights out this season and allowing just a .218 wOBA to RHH where he will see 6+ tonight. I love deGrom for all formats tonight.

David Price (7.9k FD) (8.8k DK) @ TB

I actually think Price’s price on fanduel is a bit low for this matchup. He has already faced the Rays 3 times this year and has 2 40 fanduel point games. He struggled for a few starts but has bounced back with 34 and 55 point games. The Rays best hitter BvP wise against Price is Ramos, no one else is hitting over .278. As a team, they are just hitting .177 over 113 at-bats with a .237 wOBA and .115 ISO. Price is getting about 8 K/9 and has a 21.6% K rate this season so far. The Rays have not been awful vs LHP, but are still striking out almost 25% of the time. I think people could be on Price after his last 2 starts, if he becomes chalky I’ll likely fade, but for now, I do like him.

Chris Archer (8.4k FD) (6.7k DK) vs BOS

Probably not a play you thought you would see tonight. It definitely is a risky one, but it could pay off, especially on DraftKings where he’s rather cheap. Archer pitched a wonderful game vs the Angels and gets another tough matchup here. His K% is down from last year, which is concerning, but he’s been better in 3 of his last 4 starts. He seems to have settled down a bit after a horrible start to the year and he’s been sitting around 5-7 strikeouts per start. In his career vs BOS, he does have a 26% K rate and just an aEV of 85 mph. Mookie, who is on fire, has the best numbers against him, and that scares me a bit. I doubt anyone will use Archer tonight, but we know how good he was and can be. I like him MORE on DRAFTKINGS for that lower price though.

Kenta Maeda (8.7k FD) (9.8k DK) vs COL

Maeda has been up and down this year, but his ups are VERY good. He twirled a gem last start against the Marlins but before that didn’t have more than 40 fanduel points in 3 starts. 4 of his 7 starts this year though, have had more than 40 fanduel points. He gets a good matchup with the Rockies her tonight too. Over their L14 vs RHP, they have the 2^nd worst wRC+ and a 25.7% K rate. They are hitting just .208 with a .272 wOBA and are not hitting for much power either. Maeda has a wonderful 28.6% K rate this season with a great 3.24 SIERA. He has a career-high 13.9% Swinging Strike rate as well. The thing with Maeda is we cannot trust Dave Roberts to let his pitchers go. He did go 8 innings last start, so if he is doing well, we can hope Roberts doesn’t give him a short hook tonight. Lefties have given him a lot of trouble this year, and the Rockies are going to have at least 4 in their lineup tonight. Since the Rockies are so cold as an offense right now, I still like Maeda.

Kyle Freeland (8.3k FD) (10.1k DK) @ LAD

He is VERY expensive on DraftKings, but a more affordable price on fanduel tonight. Freeland has been outstanding this season so far and looks to continue his success vs the Dodgers. He has seen an uptick in strikeouts this season (+7% K% from last year). He isn’t getting hit very hard (25%) and is getting 48.6% groundballs. Freeland has had just 1 bad outing this year and has gone 6+ innings in 6 of his 9 starts. When looking for pitching, we want length, Freeland has gone 7 innings in 3 of his last 5 starts. Over his last 5 starts, he hasn’t had less than 31 fanduel points, and that is great for his price. The Dodgers are a very hit or miss offense and Freeland can definitely shut them down. They do have a 25% K rate to LHP and .090 ISO too. Freeland will likely be very low owned on DraftKings given that price.

MAIN SLATE RANKINGS

1. Jacob deGrom (all formats)
2. Kenta Maeda (all formats)
3. Kyle Freeland (lean GPP, cash viable though)
4. Tyler Skaggs (lean GPP)
5. David Price (lean GPP, still cash viable)
6. C. Sabathia (GPP)
7. Chris Archer (GPP, better price on Draftkings)