Pitching Breakdown
Tuesday, May 1st, 2018
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!
I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that in the write-up!
ALWAYS PAY ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER FROM OUR VERY OWN @DFSWEATHER IN SLACK!!!
Any updates will be given in our VIP Slack Channel! <– click here to see our pricing to get the whole VIP experience!
Definitions of Stats used in articles via Fangraphs.com
K% (Strikeout Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has struck out a batter, calculated as strikeouts divided by total batters faced.
An average K% is 20%, anything above is considered great or elite
BB% (Walk Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has issued a walk, calculated as walks divided by total batters faced. Average BB% for pitchers is 7.7%, anything lower is considered great or elite
BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The rate at which the pitcher allows a hit when the ball is put in play. A BABIP at or near .300 is considered average. EXAMPLE: if a pitcher has a BABIP of .200 it means he could be getting lucky and balls in play are turned into outs if they have a BABIP of .400 he could be getting unlucky on balls in play and they are turning into hits.
xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): An estimate of a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, and fly balls allowed, assuming league average results on balls in play and home run to fly ball ratio. The Lower the xFIP the better. 3.80 is around average.
SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): An ERA estimator that attempts to more accurately capture a pitcher’s performance based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, home runs, and batted ball data. The lower the better 3.90 is considered average, so anything below that is great to excellent. Anything about is poor.
Hard% (Hard Contact Percentage): Percentage of hard-hit batted balls. Anything below 30% is considered average or better. the lower Hard% the better, meaning pitchers are giving up more soft contact.
wRC+: A rate statistic that credits a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treating them all equally. League average is 100, each point above or below that is one percentage point better or worse than league average. wRC+ is a better representation of offense value.
O-Swing% = Swings at pitches outside the zone/pitches outside the zone
Z-Swing% = Swings at pitches inside the zone/pitches inside the zone
Swing% = Swings/Pitches
O-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches outside the zone / Swings on pitches outside the zone
Z-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches inside the zone / Swings on pitches inside the zone
SwStr% = Swings and misses/Total Pitches
Yesterday’s Results: (here I will post fantasy points from previous day’s picks)
Zack Greinke: (52 FD) (29.9 DK)
Jake Arrieta: (-1 FD) (-7.25 DK)
Jameson Taillon: (28 FD) (12.1 DK)
Aaron Sanchez: (18 FD) (7.5 DK)
Yesterday was not the best slate, we still had Greinke go off from this list as I moved him to my top play late in slack. Missed Morton and I’m kicking myself for that one, but can’t dwell on the past on to today’s LOADED slate.
first a BIG congrats to “nadesify” on his big $5,000 win last night! We have had multiple huge winners across all sports with this being the most recent! Way to go and don’t spend it all at once!
Main Slate
Max Scherzer (11.5k FD) (12.7k DK) (24.9k FD2) vs PIT: There are a ton of higher priced guys here tonight and all of them are in play. Scherzer opens this game as a hefty -235 favorite and comes in with the best SIERA and K% on the slate tonight. The Pirates have just a 21.3% K rate over their L14 vs RHP, but that doesn’t worry me at all, Max can strike out 10+ any start. Early this season, Max has a 38% K rate allowing a .165 average and allowing less than a hitter on base per inning (0.82 WHIP). We know he can give up a homer or 2, more so against lefties, but the PIT lineup doesn’t scare me at all, as they are hitting .213 with a 36% K rate in their careers against Max. With a ton of options tonight, he’s definitely near the top.
Chris Archer (8.7k FD) (9.2k DK) (18k FD2) @ DET: We just saw Jacob Faria pitch an absolute gem against these Tigers last night, and I see no reason why Archer cannot do the same here. I think Newcomb and Archer could be a lethal pairing on DK and FD2 in tournaments here tonight. The Tigers have been average against RHP, and have been hitting for some power (except last night). He has a solid 28.4% K rate against the current Tigers roster and just 7% walk rate. According to our weather station (THANK YOU MARK), we see that we have wind blowing in at about 12 mph and that will just help Archer keep the ball in the park. Archer has struggled heavily against lefties this year, and thankfully for us, the Tigers are only projected 3 of them tonight. I do believe Archer is getting a tad unlucky with his .376 BABIP and just 3.73 SIERA this year while getting 45.5% groundballs. Once the official lineup for the Tigers comes out will determine how much I like Archer, if they have 6+ righties I like him a lot, if they happen to roll out more lefties, I may tamper my expectations on him. But as of now, I love him for GPPs tonight.
Justin Verlander (10.8k FD) (11.7k DK) (22.8k FD2) vs NYY: Morton just completely shut down one of the hottest offenses in baseball last night and Verlander will look to do the same. We know how much power the Yankees have, but we also know they have a 25.5% K rate to RHP in their L14. Verlander will be VERY low owned just like Morton was last night and he’s a great play off the chalk. The whole Houston pitching staff has been lights out this year and Verlander comes in with a 2.96 SIERA and 32.4% K rate. The one thing that I would be concerned about is his 57.8% flyball rate this year which could lead to some home runs and doubles for the Yanks tonight. He doesn’t get hit overly hard this year (25.6% Hard%). The way the Astros pitching staff has been this year, I think we can roll Verlander in some GPPs tonight and hope he keeps his hot start going.
Michael Wacha (7k FD) (8k DK) (15.2k FD2) vs CWS: I feel he may be too highly owned and if that is the case, I will likely move off him. He opens up as a heavy -214 favorite at home against these White Sox tonight. His WHIP is quite high for my liking, especially on DK where they take points away from walks and hits. He’s getting about 20% K’s which is near his average. A big help to this game is the White Sox are throwing Shields and I think his chances to get the win are huge. He’s very cheap and has had 30, 27, 36, and 49 fanduel points over his last 4 starts. It does not come without any risk though as the White Sox have a .181 ISO and 124 wRC+ against RHP on the road in their L14. I do hope he doesn’t get too popular though.
Clayton Kershaw (11.1k FD) (11.9k DK) (22.8k FD2) @ ARI: I’m not sure what is wrong with Kershaw this year, and him walking as many batters as he did against Miami. BUT, he always seems to do good against the Diamondbacks. Over the last 3 seasons, he hasn’t had higher than a .257 wOBA against these Dbacks, with 35+% K rates against them. He simply has owned them over his career and I see him getting back on track tonight. Their current active roster is hitting just .187 against him with a .250 wOBA and 30.7% K rate. Goldy has hit 3 HR off him but that’s the most of his damage. He’s not pitching to “Kershaw” standards, but still has a 3.20 SIERA and 28.6% Hard% and getting 12% SwStr%. He’s already pitched against them twice this year and put up 64 fanduel points and 34 fanduel points in those starts. Look for him to bounce back here tonight.
Felix Hernandez (5.9k FD) (6.6k FD) (12.6k FD2) vs OAK: King Felix is not the best he used to be, but he still owns Oakland. He’s faced them already today and went 6.1 innings with 7 K’s and 2 ER getting 38 fanduel points. He’s very cheap and I think could be worth a risk in large-field GPPs. He’s been better at home this year and will look to keep it rolling in Seattle. He’s also allowing just a .236 wOBA at home this year with a 7% increase in strikeout rate at home. Virtually all of his stats are much better at home and the active roster for Oakland has 192 at-bats against him in their career. They are hitting just .188 with .252 wOBA and 24.47% K rate.
Mike Soroka (4k DK) @ NYM: Total wildcard here tonight as Soroka is getting called up to make his MLB debut tonight against the Mets. We don’t have a TON of data on him, but we have some minor league numbers that I am very intrigued by. This year he is 2-0 with a 1.99 ERA and 2.43 xFIP (I would use SIERA, but we don’t have that data for minors). One thing I LOVE about him is his 69% groundball rate this season and just 19% flyball rate. Now, I expect that to change a bit in the bigs, but it is definitely intriguing for min price. He’s also been getting 27.6% K rate with 5.8% walk rate in AAA this season. The Mets have been about average against RHP in their L14 but they can be hit or miss and we have all been burned by them once or twice this year. He’s given up a lower batting average against RHH this year and .167 compared to .250 to LHH. I definitely think we can take a shot at this kid in GPPs tonight.
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
- Max Scherzer (all formats)
- Clayton Kershaw (all formats)
- Justin Verlander (lean GPP)
- Chris Archer (GPP)
- Michael Wacha (GPP)
- Felix Hernandez (GPP)
- Mike Soroka (DK GPP)
Before y’all freak out on me for not having Sale or Syndergaard in this write-up, let me explain.
Sale is great, we all know that. The Royals have seen A LOT of Sale over their careers and they have been hitting LHP very well lately. They have a 35.6% Hard contact rate, 113 wRC+, .201 ISO, .343 wOBA. Their current roster against Sale has a .273 average with .298 wOBA and have seen him 271 times. That is A LOT. Now, can Sale go out and get you 40 fanduel points? Yes, but can he get you 50+? He CAN, but I do not see it in this matchup here tonight. For this price of over 11k, we need and want more than 40. He’s only gone more than 6 innings one time this year and for his price, I want more. I will not fault you for wanting to use him, but I will not be using him tonight and these are the reasons why.
For Syndergaard. I do not like using pitchers against the Braves. They have been very good and pesky. They also have much short-term success against him. Hitting .377 with a .422 wOBA in 53 at-bats. He just faced this team and only got 31 fanduel points. If we are paying 10.6k on FD for him, I want upper 30s or 40+. He, like Sale, has only gone 7 innings once this year and we just need that for an expensive pitcher.
These are my reasons for fading and not including these two studs on tonight’s slate.
GOOD LUCK DFSARMY!
