Welcome to the daily MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel, DraftKings, and Fantasydraft!

In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.

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I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.

Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!

NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!

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Definitions of Stats used in articles via Fangraphs.com

K% (Strikeout Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has struck out a batter, calculated as strikeouts divided by total batters faced.

An average K% is 20%, anything above is considered great or elite

BB% (Walk Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has issued a walk, calculated as walks divided by total batters faced. Average BB% for pitchers is 7.7%, anything lower is considered great or elite

BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The rate at which the pitcher allows a hit when the ball is put in play. A BABIP at or near .300 is considered average. EXAMPLE: if a pitcher has a BABIP of .200 it means he could be getting lucky and balls in play are turned into outs if they have a BABIP of .400 he could be getting unlucky on balls in play and they are turning into hits.

xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): An estimate of a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, and fly balls allowed, assuming league average results on balls in play and home run to fly ball ratio. The Lower the xFIP the better. 3.80 is around average.

SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): An ERA estimator that attempts to more accurately capture a pitcher’s performance based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, home runs, and batted ball data. The lower the better 3.90 is considered average, so anything below that is great to excellent. Anything about is poor.

Hard% (Hard Contact Percentage): Percentage of hard-hit batted balls. Anything below 30% is considered average or better. the lower Hard% the better, meaning pitchers are giving up more soft contact.

wRC+: A rate statistic that credits a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treating them all equally. League average is 100, each point above or below that is one percentage point better or worse than league average. wRC+ is a better representation of offense value.

O-Swing% = Swings at pitches outside the zone/pitches outside the zone

Z-Swing%  = Swings at pitches inside the zone/pitches inside the zone

Swing% = Swings/Pitches

O-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches outside the zone / Swings on pitches outside the zone

Z-Contact%  = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches inside the zone / Swings on pitches inside the zone

SwStr% = Swings and misses/Total Pitches

MAIN SLATE

Jeremy Hellickson (6.5k FD) (8.2k DK) (16k FD2) @ BAL

Hellickson has been very good this year and has surprised a bunch of people. We have been picking on Baltimore a lot of late because they have been horrible. Over the last 14 days, the Orioles have the 2^nd worst wRC+ and the 2^nd highest strikeout rate. They also have just a .262 wOBA and have scored the least amount of runs in the MLB in these two weeks. Hellickson’s K% is up to 21.8% this year and he’s not allowing many people on base with a 0.89 WHIP. Surprising he has a 3.47 SIERA, so we can expect him to continue to be a strong starter for the Nationals right now. The biggest thing for Hellickson is he is getting a career-high 70.4% first strikes, allowing him to work ahead in the count and be able to get more creative with his pitches. I will be picking on Baltimore until they turn it around. He did leave his last start with a blister, so that will have to be monitored and because of that, I will only use him in tournaments today.

Charlie Morton (9.9k FD) (12.1k DK) (23.3k FD2) @ NYY

Morton is the most expensive pitcher across the board against a very good Yankees team. I won’t be using him in cash tonight, but I love him in tournaments. We used to pick on the Yanks for the high amount of strikeouts they get, but they are at just 19.6% over their L14. They are one of the hottest teams in baseball, but Morton shut them down last time he faced them. He had a “bad start” to his standards last time out but still gave us 37 fanduel points. Morton has only had 2 starts this year under 20 fanduel points and has topped 70 in a start. He’s in the midst of a breakout season for Houston and has a career-high 31% K rate with a WHIP at just 0.97. Morton has always been a groundball pitcher and that hasn’t changed this year with a 54.6% GB rate and 3.04 SIERA. I’m thinking people may avoid him against the Yanks tonight, but I love him for tournaments.

Nick Tropeano (7.5k FD) (7.2k DK) (14.5k FD2) @ DET

I hope too many people don’t chase his last game here, but they may because Nick’s in another great spot. The Tigers are slumping of late and have the 3^rd lowest wRC+ in the MLB vs RHP. They don’t usually strike out, but their K% is up to 21.2% in the L14. They are a bit better in the L7, but they don’t scare me much. Tropeano has looked better on the road this season with a 0.63 better wOBA and has been able to get much more K’s on the road. Tropeano gets hit hard and only gets about 35.5% of groundballs and that could be an issue tonight. He has been good for 3-6 K’s a start and I can see him getting around 5-6 tonight and go 5-6 innings. He could be good for about 25-30 fanduel points in tournaments tonight.

Kyle Gibson (7.3k FD) (7.3k DK) (14.9k FD2) @ KC

I’m not sure if Gibson just hates Minnesota or what but he is MUCH better on the road over his career. Looking at the stats on him, he has a .223 wOBA on the road and .124 BAA with a 2.61 ERA. At home, he has a .375 wOBA, .314 BAA, and 5.76 ERA. Quick note, never play Gibson at home and load up on the road. The Royals are actually a bit cold of late vs RHP with the 5^th lowest wRC+ with a 21.8% K rate. Kyle Gibson can’t seem to get a win, but on the road this year these are his following fanduel points: 34 vs LAA, 39 vs CHW, 52 vs NYY, 28 vs TB, and 46 vs BAL. Gibson almost has double the K% on the road with 30.6% and has a WHIP under 1.00. He can tend to get hard, but is able to limit the damage on the road with 45.5% GB rate and has given up less than an HR/9. I won’t use him in cash games vs KC, but I love him for tournaments on the road tonight.

Kyle Freeland (7.4k FD) (7.9k DK) (15.4k FD2) vs SF

People do not like using pitchers in Coors, but I actually do more than most. Freeland has been great this season and is actually better at home. He’s allowing just a .274 wOBA at home and under a .200 average. Freeland has been one of the most consistent pitchers for the Rockies this year scoring at least 40 fanduel points in 4 of his last 6 starts. The Giants have been a bit better of late vs LHP but still have a 23.3% K rate. Kyle has been lights out to lefties and has a 38.9% K rate against them. The Giants will likely roll out 6-7 RHH so that could be a bit of a concern, but I still like Freeland’s upside for tournaments at low ownership in Coors.

Luis Castillo (7.8k FD) (8k DK) (15k FD2) @ ARI

The Humidor in Arizona is definitely helping the pitchers at Chase Field and the Diamondbacks have been awful of late. In their L14 vs RHP, they have the worst wRC+ of just 20 and have a 28.3% K rate. Between them and the Orioles, those are two we are loving to pick on. They are getting very unlucky with a low BABIP and are still getting 34.6% Hard%. I do love Castillo tonight though and he’s been very solid this year. He has not given up more than 2 earned runs since his April 27^th start vs the Twins. 4 of his last 5 starts have had more than 30 fanduel points His strikeouts have been between 4-8 in most starts and his K% has been trending up since his struggles in the beginning. I will continue to pick on Arizona until they turn it around.

Blake Snell (8.7k FD) (10.6k DK) (20.2k FD2) @ OAK

Oakland has really been struggling against LHP after being very hot against them. In their L14 vs LHP, they have the worst wRC+ and have a 25.2% K rate. They have a horrible .236 wOBA too. Don’t throw him against Baltimore or the Yankees, but anyone else he has looked very good against. In last two starts came against some very hot offenses in the Red Sox and Angels and he was able to get 48 and 52 fanduel points in those. Snell has pitched to a 27% K rate this season and has a WHIP of just 1.02 allowing hitters to hit just .192 against him. On the better side of the SIERA department with a 3.58 and he’s getting 12.6% Swinging Strikes. Snell also has been able to get hitters to swing at pitches outside of the zone 32.4% of the time. Snell is one of my favorite plays of the night.

Tyson Ross (8.4k FD) (9.2k DK) (17.8k FD2) vs MIA

Ross has been very good this season and he will not slow down. He’s proving to everyone how good he was always was when he was healthy. He has a 25.4% K rate this year and allowing just a .208 BAA. He’s been hit very hard this year (39.5% Hard%) but has an average SIERA of 3.77. He has a very good matchup against the Marlins tonight who have actually been striking out a bit more to RHP (23%) than usual. I do think Ross is a tad over-priced but he has put up at least 40 fanduel points 3 times in his last 5 starts. The Marlins projected lineup has an average of 27% K rate this season vs RHP and just an average DFSA Grade of 54.87. Ross is a great play tonight.

Jake Arrieta (8.1k FD) (7.5k DK) (14.4k FD2) @ LAD

We have had some coaches earlier say that Arrieta has success against the Dodgers, and he does. It is a small sample, just 51 at-bats but they have just 4 hits off him and a 35% K rate. I hate how his strikeouts have been way down this year, but he’s been up and down this year too. Despite the shaky season and lower K%, he still isn’t getting his hard (23.5% Hard%) but when his sinker is working, he gets a ton of groundballs. Arrieta has been up and down all season, so I can’t use him in cash games, but I don’t hate him for GPPs.

Kenta Maeda (9.3k FD) (10.8k DK) (21.6k FD2) vs PHI

Maeda has been amazing this year and he has a wonderful matchup against the Phillies tonight. He has been striking out hitters left and right this year and has a 30.8% K rate. His last two starts he has 14.2 innings with 20 K’s and 0 ER with 66 and 58 fanduel points. The Phillies have been a little cold of late and are still striking out a ton. Maeda seems to be a bit safer from the Dave Roberts treatment and he has elite upside in this matchup tonight.

MAIN SLATE RANKINGS

1. Kenta Maeda (all formats)
2. Blake Snell (all formats)
3. Charlie Morton (lean GPP)
4. Tyson Ross (all formats)
5. Luis Castillo (lean GPP)
6. Kyle Gibson (GPP)
7. Jake Arrieta (GPP)
8. Jeremy Hellickson (GPP)
9. Kyle Freeland (GPP)
10. Nick Tropeano (GPP)