Pitching Breakdown
Thursday, May 17th, 2018
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!
I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that in the write-up!
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Definitions of Stats used in articles via Fangraphs.com
K% (Strikeout Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has struck out a batter, calculated as strikeouts divided by total batters faced.
An average K% is 20%, anything above is considered great or elite
BB% (Walk Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has issued a walk, calculated as walks divided by total batters faced. Average BB% for pitchers is 7.7%, anything lower is considered great or elite
BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The rate at which the pitcher allows a hit when the ball is put in play. A BABIP at or near .300 is considered average. EXAMPLE: if a pitcher has a BABIP of .200 it means he could be getting lucky and balls in play are turned into outs if they have a BABIP of .400 he could be getting unlucky on balls in play and they are turning into hits.
xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): An estimate of a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, and fly balls allowed, assuming league average results on balls in play and home run to fly ball ratio. The Lower the xFIP the better. 3.80 is around average.
SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): An ERA estimator that attempts to more accurately capture a pitcher’s performance based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, home runs, and batted ball data. The lower the better 3.90 is considered average, so anything below that is great to excellent. Anything about is poor.
Hard% (Hard Contact Percentage): Percentage of hard-hit batted balls. Anything below 30% is considered average or better. the lower Hard% the better, meaning pitchers are giving up more soft contact.
wRC+: A rate statistic that credits a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treating them all equally. League average is 100, each point above or below that is one percentage point better or worse than league average. wRC+ is a better representation of offense value.
O-Swing% = Swings at pitches outside the zone/pitches outside the zone
Z-Swing% = Swings at pitches inside the zone/pitches inside the zone
Swing% = Swings/Pitches
O-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches outside the zone / Swings on pitches outside the zone
Z-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches inside the zone / Swings on pitches inside the zone
SwStr% = Swings and misses/Total Pitches
Main Slate
Chad Kuhl (7.7k FD) (8.2k DK) (16.1k FD2) vs SD
It does not feel right writing up Chad Kuhl, but the matchup is there for him to do well. The Pirates are also riding a hot streak so I do think he has a good chance of getting the win tonight. He’s actually been pretty good on the year scoring at least 30 fanduel points in 5 of his 7 starts. As @ThunderDan told me earlier today, if he is locating his fastball and slider he will have a good game. Kuhl has a decent 22% K rate on this season, and we could expect a few more from him tonight against the Padres. Over their L14 vs RHP, they have the highest K% at 27%. Kuhl needs to find ways to navigate the lefties tonight in order to have a good game. He’s definitely not safe for cash games, but I don’t mind a risk in GPPs this evening.
Kevin Gausman (8.6k FD) (7.9k DK) (14.9k FD2) @ BOS
Risky play here with Gausman against the Red Sox. Boston has not been striking out a ton vs RHP, but Gausman has some good history vs BOS. As a team, they have had 186 at-bats against him and are hitting just .220 with a .286 wOBA and a 23% K rate. Mookie and Hanley have done the most damage with 5 HR combined, but other than that no one has done all that much. He’s coming off an extra day of rest after throwing a ton of pitches in his last few starts and I think that will help him here tonight. Gausman has had just 3 starts with less than 30 fanduel points this season and has been able to top 40 four different times. He has been steady around 4-7 strikeouts per game and hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER in his last 5 starts. Going deep into games has not been a problem this season for Gausman, as he has gone at least 6 innings in 5 of his 8 starts.
Vince Velasquez (8.3k FD) (7.3k DK) (14.8k FD2) @ STL
I actually like both sides of this game for pitching tonight. Velasquez has actually been very good this season outside of a couple starts. His strikeouts have been up and down this year, but he did get 12 last game against the Giants. He still comes into this game with a very good 28% K rate and faces the Cardinals who have a 26.5% K rate to RHP in their L14. They also have one of the lower wRC+’s in that span as well and a below average wOBA. I think this game is set up nice for a pitcher’s duel with two young arms facing off. VV has the 3rd best SIERA on this main slate tonight at 3.55. Once we see the STL lineup, I will like Vince a lot more if they run out a bunch of righties. Right now, they have 7 RHH projected in their lineup and Velasquez has been much better against righties. He’s limited them to a .229 wOBA and just .162 average with a 31% K rate. The more RHH for STL, the better.
Luke Weaver (6.2k FD) (8k DK) (15.3k FD2) vs PHI
Luke Weaver is WAY too cheap on fanduel for me tonight. He’s the 3rd lowest priced pitcher there and actually has a decent matchup against the Phillies tonight. Weaver has had a rough way of late but bounced back nicely the last start against the Padres. Despite his struggles, he still is only giving up 26% Hard% and 43% groundballs this year. The Phillies are a dangerous team, but they still have the 4th highest K rate vs RHP at 27%. The upside in this matchup is hard to pass up considering Weaver’s price. The Phillies have some powerful lefties in their lineup and that is where Weaver has struggled this year, but if he is able to strikeout those righties and limits the damage against the lefties he could have a good game.
Tyler Skaggs (9k FD) (10.4k DK) (20.7k FD2) vs TB
The highest priced pitcher on fanduel tonight and 2nd highest on DK/FD2 comes in with a decent matchup vs the Rays tonight. The Rays are traveling from KC to LA and they could be a little tired from it. Skaggs has looked very good this season scoring at least 30 fanduel points in 6 of 8 starts and has surprised a lot of people so far. I am surprised to see him be so expensive, but he has earned that price tag. He’s been able to generate at least 5 K’s in 6/8 starts too. The Rays had their hot streak and actually have won their last 3 games, but Skaggs has been very good. He actually has the 2nd lowest SIERA on the slate at 3.54 and has a 25% K rate with just over a 1 WHIP. He has had some struggles at home this year, but the matchup vs TB is a good one. I do think people will shy away from the top priced guys on this slate tonight, but he is in a wonderful spot and I can see another 30+ fanduel point performance.
Chris Archer (8.6k FD) (6.9k DK) (13.9k FD2) @ LAA
Chris Archer is priced way to low on DK and FD2 for how good he is. Yes, he has a tough matchup against the Angels, but he actually has some good BvP against them. Just like Verlander last night, Archer has good numbers against them. In 103 at-bats they are hitting just .204 with a .244 wOBA and a 33.9% K rate against Archer. Normally the Angels do not strike out all that much, but over their L14 they do have a 21.1% K rate. It isn’t that high, but higher than their season numbers of 19%. It was shocking to see Archer as our 2nd highest pitcher on the RS tonight, but when he pops like that I need to take a deeper look. He’s been better against RHH this year and has looked better in May, lowering his wOBA from .378 down to .296. I do think tonight is more a GPP type slate, and Archer could have himself a good game at low ownership.
Chad Bettis (7.2k FD) (7.4k DK) (14.9k FD2) @ SF
Another great matchup for Bettis and he has been very good on the road this year. Bettis has scored the following fanduel points on the road this year: 27, 43, 41, 34, and 37. People will look to the other side of this matchup, but not me. Bettis has a 1.35 ERA on the road and allowing just a .260 wOBA with a .197 average over 33.1 innings this year. He is not a big strikeout guy but he can grab 3-5 per game and maybe more against this Giants team that has a 25.7% K rate to RHP. They have been on a hot streak of late, but Bettis I think can stop them. He does not give up a ton of hard contact. But it is a little above average but his 45% groundball rate will help him tonight. I doubt he garners any ownership in the late night hammer on the road, but I love this play for GPPs.
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
- Tyler Skaggs (all formats)
- Vince Velasquez (all formats)
- Luke Weaver (GPP, SP2 because he’s so cheap)
- Chris Archer (GPP)
- Chad Kuhl (GPP)
- Chad Bettis (GPP)
- Kevin Gausman (GPP)
These are rather loose rankings tonight, Hamels is my top option if you are playing cash games tonight. I love all of these pitchers for GPPs tonight and I think this is a great GPP type slate. Good Luck DFS Army!
