Pitching Breakdown
Monday, May 14th, 2018
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!
I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that in the write-up!
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Definitions of Stats used in articles via Fangraphs.com
K% (Strikeout Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has struck out a batter, calculated as strikeouts divided by total batters faced.
An average K% is 20%, anything above is considered great or elite
BB% (Walk Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has issued a walk, calculated as walks divided by total batters faced. Average BB% for pitchers is 7.7%, anything lower is considered great or elite
BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The rate at which the pitcher allows a hit when the ball is put in play. A BABIP at or near .300 is considered average. EXAMPLE: if a pitcher has a BABIP of .200 it means he could be getting lucky and balls in play are turned into outs if they have a BABIP of .400 he could be getting unlucky on balls in play and they are turning into hits.
xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): An estimate of a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, and fly balls allowed, assuming league average results on balls in play and home run to fly ball ratio. The Lower the xFIP the better. 3.80 is around average.
SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): An ERA estimator that attempts to more accurately capture a pitcher’s performance based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, home runs, and batted ball data. The lower the better 3.90 is considered average, so anything below that is great to excellent. Anything about is poor.
Hard% (Hard Contact Percentage): Percentage of hard-hit batted balls. Anything below 30% is considered average or better. the lower Hard% the better, meaning pitchers are giving up more soft contact.
wRC+: A rate statistic that credits a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treating them all equally. League average is 100, each point above or below that is one percentage point better or worse than league average. wRC+ is a better representation of offense value.
O-Swing% = Swings at pitches outside the zone/pitches outside the zone
Z-Swing% = Swings at pitches inside the zone/pitches inside the zone
Swing% = Swings/Pitches
O-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches outside the zone / Swings on pitches outside the zone
Z-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches inside the zone / Swings on pitches inside the zone
SwStr% = Swings and misses/Total Pitches
Yesterday’s Results: (here I will post fantasy points from previous day’s picks)
We couldn’t be more happy for these members to win HUGE last weekend. Also, congrats to everyone else who is winning too! Let’s keep it rolling!
Main Slate
Rick Porcello (9k FD) (10.5k DK) (20.5k FD2) vs OAK
There are a few different arms that I really like on this slate tonight, first, we get Porcello against the Oakland A’s. Oakland has been struggling of late and after facing the Yankees, they go into Boston. Over their L14, they have a 25% K rate and are barely hitting .200 as a team. Porcello has looked very sharp this season so far aside from his recent start vs NYY. Outside of that start, he has not had less than 31 fanduel points and has had over 40 in 5 of his starts this year. Porcello comes into this start with a 24% K rate and just 4% walk rate on the season allowing less than a baserunner per inning and has a SIERA of 3.36. I expect Porcello to garner some ownership here tonight, but I love him at a discount compared to the other options tonight.
Carlos Carrasco (9.8k FD) (12.2k DK) (24.1k FD2) @ DET
Do not think twice about this one. Carrasco is my #1 tonight and it isn’t close. The Tigers are an offense we do like to pick on and Carrasco will be the chalk in cash games tonight and I’m going to eat it. This is already his 2nd start against these Tigers and in the first one, he tossed a CG with 6 K’s. Carlos dominated the Brewers in his last start getting the CG with 14 K’s and just 2 ER. Carrasco has a brilliant 26% K rate on the year and just 5% walk rate. This is equal to 9 K/9 and just 1.89 BB/9. The Tigers have been scuffling and have a 23.6% K rate with just a .117 ISO in their L14. Over their L7, DET’s strikeout rate has jumped to 26% against RHP. He’s had success against these Tigers with a 27% K rate and just a .220 average with a .252 wOBA. Carrasco is my top option tonight in all formats.
Patrick Corbin (10k FD) (12.7k DK) (24.6k FD2) vs MIL
With Carrasco on this slate, I think he gets the majority ownership and Corbin may go under owned against the Brewers. I do have some concerns about him with his fastball/sinker velocity has been down his last two starts, but his breaking stuff has remained the same. Despite being down in velocity he still has only given up 1 run in each of his last 2 and had 7 and 5 strike outs against the Dodgers. The Brewers are not striking out a ton to LHP in their L14, but they rank in the bottom half in wRC+ and average. People may look at the BvP with MIL against Corbin and will see that it is very good, but he’s a different pitcher this year than he was before. He still has the best SIERA on the slate this year and has been better at home too. Milwaukee will likely have 6-7 RHH in their lineup, where Corbin has had struggles against, with 6 HR against them, but the wOBA is still .247 and average of .168. I love him in GPPs tonight as a lower owned pitcher tonight.
Lance McCullers (9.3k FD) (10k DK) (19.7k FD2) @ LAA
Another pitcher I think could be lower owned tonight because he is on the road and facing a good offense. McCullers did not have the best outing against OAK, but he will look to turn it around here against the Angels. His strikeouts have been very sporadic this season, but he’s normally good for 6+. He still has a 27% strikeout rate, but his walks are killing him. Lance has been able to get 62% ground balls and that will help him against the Angels lineup tonight. McCullers actually has great BvP against them over 99 at-bats. Los Angeles is hitting just .202 with a .284 wOBA against him and the 3 hitters with more than 15 at-bats are a combined 10-61 (.163) with 17 strikeouts. The numbers just given were from three of the Angels better hitters in Trout, Calhoun, and Pujols. McCullers is a wonderful GPP play tonight and I do love him in cash games too.
Tyler Anderson (6.9k FD) (7.5k DK) (14.k FD2) @ SD
Anderson is very cheap coming into this game that isn’t in Coors. The Padres are a team that we do like to pick on because they do strikeout a ton. Anderson has had an up and down season, but the ups are very good. In his good starts, he’s been around 30-40 fanduel points while getting a season high 52 against the Cubs. His advanced stats do look pretty good as he has a 25% K rate, but high walk rate. The Padres do have a 25% K rate to LHP hitting just over .200. They do have some good RHH, but Anderson is actually allowing a lower wOBA to RHH than LHH. This game has a low total and I do like both pitchers in this game in a good pitcher’s park. Pure GPP play for me here tonight, but he is cheap and will allow you to get the big bats you want.
Joey Lucchesi (8.3k FD) (8.1k DK) (16.1k FD2) vs COL
Some people may think Lucchesi is too expensive, but I love him in this spot. The Rockies for some reason cannot hit on the road right now and have a higher 24.3% K rate to LHP. Colorado also has the 4th lowest wRC+ in the MLB in this span at 57. They are hitting with just a .252 wOBA, .081 ISO, and a .194 average. The Rockies do have RHH who mash LHP, but they simply are not hitting on the road and now come into this nice big park against a good young lefty. The one thing I do not like about him is he hasn’t gone past 6 innings in this last 4 starts. Joey here has been steady around 6 strikeouts per game and was able to get 7 and 8 against them in his first two starts against them. I do think these pitchers will both be lower owned on the main slate and I love them in tournaments. Lucchesi i think reaches the 6 innings mark tonight with 7 strikeouts. He is one of my favorite GPP options on this main slate tonight.
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
- Carlos Carrasco (all formats)
- Lance McCullers (all formats)
- Rick Porcello (all formats)
- Joey Lucchesi (GPP, borderline SP2 in cash)
- Patrick Corbin (GPP)
- Tyler Anderson (GPP)
