Pitching Breakdown
Friday, May 11th, 2018
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!
I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that in the write-up!
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Definitions of Stats used in articles via Fangraphs.com
K% (Strikeout Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has struck out a batter, calculated as strikeouts divided by total batters faced.
An average K% is 20%, anything above is considered great or elite
BB% (Walk Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has issued a walk, calculated as walks divided by total batters faced. Average BB% for pitchers is 7.7%, anything lower is considered great or elite
BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The rate at which the pitcher allows a hit when the ball is put in play. A BABIP at or near .300 is considered average. EXAMPLE: if a pitcher has a BABIP of .200 it means he could be getting lucky and balls in play are turned into outs if they have a BABIP of .400 he could be getting unlucky on balls in play and they are turning into hits.
xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): An estimate of a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, and fly balls allowed, assuming league average results on balls in play and home run to fly ball ratio. The Lower the xFIP the better. 3.80 is around average.
SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): An ERA estimator that attempts to more accurately capture a pitcher’s performance based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, home runs, and batted ball data. The lower the better 3.90 is considered average, so anything below that is great to excellent. Anything about is poor.
Hard% (Hard Contact Percentage): Percentage of hard-hit batted balls. Anything below 30% is considered average or better. the lower Hard% the better, meaning pitchers are giving up more soft contact.
wRC+: A rate statistic that credits a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treating them all equally. League average is 100, each point above or below that is one percentage point better or worse than league average. wRC+ is a better representation of offense value.
O-Swing% = Swings at pitches outside the zone/pitches outside the zone
Z-Swing% = Swings at pitches inside the zone/pitches inside the zone
Swing% = Swings/Pitches
O-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches outside the zone / Swings on pitches outside the zone
Z-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches inside the zone / Swings on pitches inside the zone
SwStr% = Swings and misses/Total Pitches
Yesterday’s Results: (here I will post fantasy points from previous day’s picks)
Couldn’t be more happy for these members to win HUGE last weekend. Also, congrats to everyone else who is winning too! Let’s keep it rolling!
Main Slate
Kevin Gausman (8.6k FD) (8.4k DK) (16.3k FD2) vs TB
I doubt he will be very popular on this big slate and I think he makes for a fantastic GPP play tonight. Aside from his first 2 starts of the season he has been very good and has gone 6+ innings in 4 of his last 5 starts. Gausman has gotten 40 fanduel points in 3 of his last 5 as well. The thing I love about him is he has been consistently getting between 4-7 strikeouts. We would obviously rather have the 7, but for his price, if he can grab 30 fanduel points we are happy. He’s pitching with a 4.19 SIERA which is just above the league average and gets about 45% groundballs. Gausman is on pace for having a career-high SwStr% which sits at 11% right now. He’s not someone who will light people up and his advanced stats do not look amazing. He has faced some good offenses of late and I think he can keep it rolling against this below average Rays team. GPP only though!
Jake Arrieta (8k FD) (8.1k DK) (16k FD2) vs NYM
Jake the Snake against the Mets this evening. Arrieta has been very underwhelming since being on the Phillies, but luckily he gets the Mets team who over their L7 have been sliding. I like to compare L14 and L7 to see which way some teams are trending. In their L14 the Mets have a 22.5% K rate with a .155 ISO and .314 wOBA with 95 wRC+. When you compare that to their L7, their K% jumps to 26.2%, wOBA drops to .269 and wRC+ goes to 73. Arrieta has been a disappointment so far this year with the Phillies and right now I cannot trust him in cash. He has had a start with 61 fanduel points but has been around the mid-20s and we just need more than that if we are going to pay over 8k. He isn’t striking out many hitters what so ever (16%) but he also isn’t getting hit hard at all (17.6% Hard%). This year he does have a career-high 60.4% groundball rate, just some of these are finding holes as he isn’t giving up a ton of home runs. I want to point how that he’s been MUCH better at home so far this year. Arrieta has allowed a .155 LOWER wOBA at home than on the road and has 17 K’s in 18 innings compared to 5 K’s in 16 innings on the road. So, in easier terms, he’s much better at home this year. I wouldn’t mind rolling him out in some GPPs here tonight.
Chris Sale (11.2k FD) (12.4k DK) (23.8k FD2) @ TOR
It’s a Chris Sale day folks! We LOVE to pick on the Blue Jays with pitchers who throw Sliders. Well, Sale throws a slider and a pretty damn good one too. He’s seen a lot of the Jays over his career and in 141 at-bats they have just a .213 average and .300 wOBA with a 25.5% K rate. We know Toronto has power against lefties, but they don’t hit for much average against them. He has an elite 32.3% K rate this season and just a 2.80 SIERA. I want to see him get that 50+ point game under his belt in this matchup since he’s expensive. Last time out against TOR he got us just 31. As much as I love Sale, I want to see him get 50 fanduel points more often. I do not think we NEED to force him in on this slate with some other options we have, and two other guys who I like MUCHHHHH more than Sale. I do think Sale may be lower owned than the top two guys and I definitely like in for GPPs and he will be super low owned in cash.
Aaron Sanchez (5.8k FD) (5.8k DK) (11.3k FD2) vs BOS
Here’s a pure GPP play that I doubt anyone will be on tonight. The Red Sox had a very tough series against the Yankees. Sanchez hasn’t been his best since his fantastic year in 2016 and having his season last year cut short by injury. He’s never had much higher than a 20% K rate but he’s been able to get a ton of groundballs (55.9%) this year. He’s getting hit hard just 30% of the time but he has had success against the Red Sox. The active roster has 132 at-bats against Sanchez and are hitting just .189 with a .265 wOBA. He may have a low K%, but the active roster for BOS has a 26.5% K rate against him. He’s cheap and will allow you to get any bats you want. This year he already scored up 40 fanduel points against the Red Sox at like no ownership, and I do not expect him to get any ownership here tonight either.
Trevor Bauer (9.5k FD) (11.3k DK) (22k FD2) vs KC
The Royals have been very good of late, but so has Bauer. So far this season he has not had a single start under 30 fanduel points and has just 1 start with less than 6 IP. He’s riding 6 games QS streak and hasn’t had less than 6 K’s in a game this year. He will be close to 10k I imagine in this matchup, but last time he faced them he scored 46 fanduel points. He’s had 2 games over 50 and 3 games over 40 on this young season and will look to keep it rolling tonight. Bauer opens up as a massive -240 favorite at home and has been able to keep this Royals offense in check. Over 132 at-bats they are hitting just .212 with a .267 wOBA and have just 3 HR off him and a 24% K rate. They have been one of the hotter teams in baseball, but offenses can have off nights and Bauer is a great pitcher this season. I expect him to pitch well and quiet these Royals bats tonight. I think he could be viable in all formats given the safety he has provided this year.
Justin Verlander (11.3k FD) (13k DK) (25.1k FD2) vs TEX
Verlander is a guy who I think may get a tad overlooked here tonight with Sale on the hill. He’s been just as good as the next Houston start, Gerrit Cole. Verlander has a 35% K rate this season which is a career high, and he is simply pitching out of his mind. He’s racking up strikeouts and getting 60% groundballs while giving up just 24% Hard contact. He has one of the best SIERA’s on the slate today a 2.76. There isn’t much more to say about Verlander that hasn’t been said before. This year he’s been outstanding and this Texas team has the highest K% in their L14 at 30.4% and that goes up to 33% in their L7. I see another Verlander 12 strikeout game tonight against the Rangers.
Chad Bettis (6.5k FD) (6.5k DK) (13.1k FD2) vs MIL
I think many people will just skip right over this game because it is in Coors. Well, Bettis has been pretty good this year and going deep into games. He comes in facing a Brewers team at the right time too. Over their L14 against RHP, they have a 26.3% K rate, .208 average, .115 ISO, .257 wOBA and just 56 wRC+. In simpler terms, they are slumping right now. I know this game is in Coors, but with how good Bettis has been and how bad MIL is playing on offense right now, he’s definitely worth a shot in GPPs. He’s been very consistent going 7 innings 4 times this year so far and in those starts, he hasn’t had less than 34 fanduel points and has topped 43. Even in his “bad” starts, he still has gotten 18, 23, and 27 points. For his price, I think we can easily take a shot at him in GPPs.
Max Scherzer (11.7k FD) (13.3k DK) (25.9k FD2) @ ARI
Mad Max has been himself this year so far and no one should be surprised. He’s getting an insanely high 40% K rate this season getting almost 14 K/9! That is NUTS. He has the best SIERA on the slate at 2.22 and this Arizona team can definitely be stopped. They still strike out a bunch and the humidor in Arizona has shown to be helping the pitchers in this park so far this year. In 110 at-bats this ARI team has just a .200 average, .259 wOBA, and 34.5% K rate. I think Max is going to be one of the top options for me on this slate and is ranked above Sale given the fact that he has reached that 50 point mark on fanduel that we look for when pitchers are this high. He’s gotten 50 fanduel points 4 times this year and 60 twice. He has looked much better than Sale and is one of my top options tonight.
Tyler Skaggs (8.2k FD) (8.6k DK) (16.9k FD2) vs MIN
Skaggs has looked very good this year so far and faces a MIN team who has been good vs LHP. Right now though, they have 4 projected LHH in their lineup and that helps me like him more. Skaggs for some reason has not been that good at home, but over his last 3 starts, he has 31, 34, and 40 fanduel points. He only has had 1 bad start this year given his pricing. He’s done well against some tough opponents like Seattle, NYY, HOU, TEX, CLE. His one bad start came against the Red Sox. Skaggs has only gone more than 6 innings twice this year which concerns mean, but his 24% K rate overall and 27% K rate to LHH help him tonight. Skaggs is pitching with a 3.59 SIERA and has been able to get 51% groundballs. We cannot use him in cash against a MIN team who has the ability to crush LHP, but I do think he could be a good low owned option on this big Friday slate.
Luke Weaver (5.9k FD) (7.9k DK) (15.4k FD2) @ SD
I’m not sure what has gotten into Weaver, but he has fallen off the planet since his first few starts. Luckily, he comes into this game facing the Padres who have not been good against RHP. They have a 25.6% K rate over their L14 that jumps up to 28% in their L7. San Diego has just a .265 wOBA in their L7 and are hitting for virtually no power. They were bad over their L14, but their L7 has been even worse. San Diego is a team we will pick on a lot this year and Weaver faces them at the perfect time. His price has come WAY down and rightfully so, but this is the time we at DFS Army jump back on him and watch him shine in this one. He hasn’t gone 6 innings since his 3rd start this season and hasn’t been the sharpest. His strikeouts have been down, but he still isn’t walking all that many hitters (aside from his 6 vs NYM). He hasn’t been able to get as many Swinging Strikes as he did before, but this kid has a lot of talent. Like I said, I cannot trust him in cash but I do like him in tournaments. I think he will be lower owned because many people have a recency bias and do not look deep into stats like me! He’s also very cheap tonight, especially on Fanduel.
Sonny Gray (6.4k FD) (6.7k DK) (12.8k FD2) vs OAK
Gray is facing his former team tonight in the Bronx. Since having Romine as his full-time catcher Gray has looked much better of late. He also faces Oakland at the PERFECT time. The A’s have the LOWEST wRC+ over their last 14 vs RHP at just 62 and have a horrible wOBA at .261. Gray is usually close to a K per inning, and the A’s are striking out 28.8% of the time right now. NO one will be on him except us here at the DFSArmy and not going to lie I was on the fence about him, then @ThunderDan talked me onto him and I agree 100%. Believe me, being a Yankee fan it’s hard to write up Gray with how bad he has been, but he could be turning it around now. He’s still giving up runs but had 7 K’s last start and I think he’s cheap enough to not kill your lineups tonight.
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
- Justin Verlander (all formats)
- (1a). Max Scherzer (all formats)
- Chris Sale (all formats)
- Trevor Bauer (all formats)
- Kevin Gausman (GPP)
- Tyler Skaggs (GPP)
- Jake Arrieta (GPP)
- Aaron Sanchez (GPP)
- Luke Weaver (GPP, LOVE AS A CHEAP SP2 in all formats)
- Chad Bettis (GPP)
- Sonny Gray (GPP)
Note: The top 4 guys are the exact order that I like them. In cash lineups, I would be rolling Verlander and Max. I think Sale could be a fade but I still like him due to his upside. All of the GPPs plays can be flip-flopped though. Check this article with the DS and the RS and your own research and roll with it! Good Luck DFSArmy!
