Pitching Breakdown
Thursday, May 10th, 2018
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!
I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that in the write-up!
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Definitions of Stats used in articles via Fangraphs.com
K% (Strikeout Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has struck out a batter, calculated as strikeouts divided by total batters faced.
An average K% is 20%, anything above is considered great or elite
BB% (Walk Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has issued a walk, calculated as walks divided by total batters faced. Average BB% for pitchers is 7.7%, anything lower is considered great or elite
BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The rate at which the pitcher allows a hit when the ball is put in play. A BABIP at or near .300 is considered average. EXAMPLE: if a pitcher has a BABIP of .200 it means he could be getting lucky and balls in play are turned into outs if they have a BABIP of .400 he could be getting unlucky on balls in play and they are turning into hits.
xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): An estimate of a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, and fly balls allowed, assuming league average results on balls in play and home run to fly ball ratio. The Lower the xFIP the better. 3.80 is around average.
SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): An ERA estimator that attempts to more accurately capture a pitcher’s performance based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, home runs, and batted ball data. The lower the better 3.90 is considered average, so anything below that is great to excellent. Anything about is poor.
Hard% (Hard Contact Percentage): Percentage of hard-hit batted balls. Anything below 30% is considered average or better. the lower Hard% the better, meaning pitchers are giving up more soft contact.
wRC+: A rate statistic that credits a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treating them all equally. League average is 100, each point above or below that is one percentage point better or worse than league average. wRC+ is a better representation of offense value.
O-Swing% = Swings at pitches outside the zone/pitches outside the zone
Z-Swing% = Swings at pitches inside the zone/pitches inside the zone
Swing% = Swings/Pitches
O-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches outside the zone / Swings on pitches outside the zone
Z-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches inside the zone / Swings on pitches inside the zone
SwStr% = Swings and misses/Total Pitches
Yesterday’s Results: (here I will post fantasy points from previous day’s picks)
- Patrick Corbin (33 FD) (19.05 DK)
- Nick Pivetta (42 FD) (26.85 DK)
- Gio Gonzalez (43 FD) (22.7 DK)
- Rick Porcello (9 FD) (0.05 DK)
- Alex Wood (24 FD) (12.45 DK)
- Joey Lucchesi (30 FD) (17.05 DK)
- Chris Stratton (18 FD) (7.6 DK)
- Julio Teheran (49 FD) (29.1 DK)
Let’s not forget about the AMAZING weekend we had here last weekend and hope we keep it rolling into this weekend!
Main Slate
J.A. Happ (9.1k FD) (11k DK) (21.1k FD2) vs SEA
Happ has been really good this year so far except for the last start where he struggled against the Rays. The Mariners have been very hot/cold this year. Over their L14 they have not been striking out a ton, but they haven’t been doing much of anything else either. They are hitting with a .212 average, .097 ISO, and below average .280 wOBA, with a 77 wRC+. Looking at Happ’s price, I do think he is too expensive for the matchup though. Before his last start, he recorded 2 straight 50 point fanduel performances against some rather tough opponents (TEX and BOS). Despite his rough outing last time out, he still has a 2.95 SIERA this season. Happ is allowing just 29% Hard% and he’s been able to get numerous groundballs (48%). Happ has had a harder time with RHH, which the Mariners will likely roll out 7 of them, and some of them have some amazing power. I don’t feel safe at all rolling him in cash, but I do think he could be a nice tournament play, just has to get around the righties.
Caleb Smith (7.6k FD) (7.3k DK) (14.4k FD2) vs ATL
Not a name you probably expected to see in this article tonight, but something is fishy about Vegas lines in this one. The total opened up at 8 and already has dropped to 7.5, with the Braves seeing a 0.4 drop in implied runs. Vegas also has this game as a pick ‘em right now. Atlanta has been great against LHP this year, but Smith has surprised a lot of us. Since his start against the Yankees, he hasn’t put up less than 44 fanduel points and even topped 58. He’s been able to limit his damage over his last 3 starts walking just 2 hitters and giving up only 2 earned runs. In this span, he also has struck out 26 hitters in 18.2 innings. Smith has been able to pitch to an outstanding 3.44 SIERA, and he is getting hit hard at 37%. One thing that is helping him, is his 12.4% SwStr% and his strikeouts are helping his fantasy output. Mr. Smith has been much better at home this year so far as well limiting hitters to a .254 wOBA while giving up just 4 ER over 17 innings. Smith will likely be very low owned tonight and I think he’s a fantastic GPP option.
Zack Greinke (9.3k FD) (10.2k DK) (19.9k FD2) vs WSH
Greinke comes into this start having the 2nd best SIERA on the slate tonight with a top 10 K%. He’s allowing just over 1 baserunner per inning, and over his career, he has always allowed more hard contact. He’s doing a great job limiting the walks this year with just 3% BB rate. The biggest thing hurting him this year is the HR ball, he has given up 1.5 HR/9 on this young season. He is doing well missing bats though, with a 12.6% SwStr% and a 28% Whiff rate so far this year. Greinke is allowing the lowest contact rate of his career at 72.6% and getting 35% of O-Swing%. He’s coming in and facing a hot Nationals team, so I do not think he’s all that “safe” but I do not think any pitching is very “safe” tonight. Greinke is still not overly expensive, but he’s only topped 40 fanduel points twice this season and has hovered around the 34 point mark. Whenever he starts, he is usually in play, he just isn’t the top option for me tonight, but he is up there.
Garrett Richards (8.8k FD) (8.9k DK) (17.2k FD2) vs MIN
Outside of a couple starts this season, Richards has looked very good. Heh as 2 50 fanduel point games, 1 40 point game and a 30 this year. His worst outing came against the Yankees, which is not very surprising. Other than that, he hasn’t had less than 4 K’s in a start (his first one) and has been as high as 11. Over their L14, the Twins have been fairly average across the board, but in their L7 they have been scoring less against RHP. So far this season Richards has a 30% K rate which comes out to getting almost 12 K/9 and only gives up about 1 HR/9. Walks are his issue as that is at a career-high 13% but he does have a SIERA of 3.79, which is just about average. He hasn’t been getting hit all that hard and has gotten a very high 58% groundball rate. The Twins can be dangerous, but I like Richards chances here at home tonight.
Miles Mikolas (8.5k FD) (10.2k DK) (19.4k FD2) @ SD
I have been on Miles his last few starts and now he gets to face the Padres in a good pitchers park. He has the 4th lowest SIERA on the slate at 3.34 and has been able to grab a few strikeouts. Not as many as the next guy I will list, but still able to get about 7 K/9 this year. One thing I absolutely love about him is his ability to limit his walks, having just a 1.2% walk rate so far this season and a WHIP under 1. He’s been getting hit a bit hard at 34% but has a 51% GB rate which helps him keep it in the yard. Lefties have been a bit better against him so far this year and the Padres will likely have 5 of them in their lineup tonight. Overall though, he is allowing just a .268 wOBA to hitters and able to leave about 82% of baserunners on base. Lefties are the ones who hit him harder and hit fewer groundballs against him. If he is able to limit their damage he will have a great game here tonight. Over their L14 the Padres do have the 5th highest K% at 25.6%, so that will help him snag a couple more strikeouts here tonight. Compared to their L14, over their L7 they have been even worse. Having a 28% K rate, 68 wRC+, just .114 ISO and .265 wOBA. Mikolas should have a solid outing tonight in San Diego.
Walker Buehler (8.6k FD) (10.5k DK) (20.6k FD2) vs CIN
WOW, his price has shot way up, and rightfully so. He’s doing work in the majors just like he was over his minor league career. I’m so happy to see that he is maintaining his K% in the bigs that as it sits at 30.2%. His walks may end up starting to hurt him at 11%, but he has a crazy high 88.2% LOB% which means he’s leaving a lot of runners on base. He has just over a 1 WHIP, which helps us in the DK/FD2 formats and hitters are hitting just .179 against him so far. Buehler has one of the better SIERA’s on the slate at 3.28 and has gotten 64% groundballs. I watched his last start in Mexico and he looked fantastic and throws very hard, WITH movement. This kid has a bright future and has lived up to the hype. The Reds are a team that has been very good of late, but now they are going to LA to face this young kid. They have cooled off over their L7 and have a 1% K rate increase over the last week compared to their L14. I expect Buehler to be popular tonight, but I do really like him.
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
- Miles Mikolas (All formats)
- Walker Buehler (all formats)
- Zack Greinke (all formats)
- Garrett Richards (lean GPP)
- A. Happ (GPP)
- Caleb Smith (GPP)
NOTE: I love this slate for GPPs tonight and I’m not on it as much for cash games. Tonight I believe that no pitcher is very “safe” but we have some in decent spots. Good Luck DFSA!
