Pitching Breakdown

Wednesday, May 9^th, 2018

In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.

I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!

I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.

Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!

NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that in the write-up!

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Definitions of Stats used in articles via Fangraphs.com

K% (Strikeout Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has struck out a batter, calculated as strikeouts divided by total batters faced.

An average K% is 20%, anything above is considered great or elite

BB% (Walk Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has issued a walk, calculated as walks divided by total batters faced. Average BB% for pitchers is 7.7%, anything lower is considered great or elite

BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The rate at which the pitcher allows a hit when the ball is put in play. A BABIP at or near .300 is considered average. EXAMPLE: if a pitcher has a BABIP of .200 it means he could be getting lucky and balls in play are turned into outs if they have a BABIP of .400 he could be getting unlucky on balls in play and they are turning into hits.

xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): An estimate of a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, and fly balls allowed, assuming league average results on balls in play and home run to fly ball ratio. The Lower the xFIP the better. 3.80 is around average.

SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): An ERA estimator that attempts to more accurately capture a pitcher’s performance based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, home runs, and batted ball data. The lower the better 3.90 is considered average, so anything below that is great to excellent. Anything about is poor.

Hard% (Hard Contact Percentage): Percentage of hard-hit batted balls. Anything below 30% is considered average or better. the lower Hard% the better, meaning pitchers are giving up more soft contact.

wRC+: A rate statistic that credits a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treating them all equally. League average is 100, each point above or below that is one percentage point better or worse than league average. wRC+ is a better representation of offense value.

O-Swing% = Swings at pitches outside the zone/pitches outside the zone

Z-Swing% = Swings at pitches inside the zone/pitches inside the zone

Swing% = Swings/Pitches

O-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches outside the zone / Swings on pitches outside the zone

Z-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches inside the zone / Swings on pitches inside the zone

SwStr% = Swings and misses/Total Pitches

Above is just a little reminder on how amazing this past weekend was from you all! We love how amazing all the members have been doing across all sports!

Yesterday’s Results: (here I will post fantasy points from previous day’s picks)

Corey Kluber (25 FD) (11.9 DK)
Aaron Nola (64 FD) (38.75 DK)
Lance McCullers (24 FD) (11.85 DK)
Luis Severino (49 FD) (27.9 DK)
James Paxton (58 FD) (45.45 DK)
Sean Manaea (12 FD) (4.45 DK)
Sean Newcomb (46 FD) (26.5 DK)
Blake Snell (34 FD) (17.9 DK)
Jeremy Hellickson (52 FD) (32.3 DK)

Overall we SMASHED pitching last night. Only TWO guys did not perform well and as I said in my write up, we could fade Kluber and the fade worked! Send those screenshots in! Let’s get to tonight!

Main Slate

Rick Porcello (9.4k FD) (10.8k DK) (21.1k FD2) @ NYY

It’s never fun to pick on the Yankees, but they do still strike out. Porcello already faced them earlier this year and went 7 innings with 6 strikeouts. Overall, the Yanks do not have the best history against Porcello. Looking back at his game logs though, the time he did struggle was when he pitched in Yankee Stadium. Over their L14 vs RHP, they have a 27.5% K rate and just below average 91 wRC+. We all know how good the Yankees have been, winning 16 of their last 17 games, but win streaks do come to an end. Now, the Yankees can still win this game, but I think Porcello can have a good game. Porcello has been great this year and he hasn’t scored less than 31 fanduel points this year. He also has been able to grab 40+ fanduel points in 5 of his 7 starts. Ricky will grab at least 6 strikeouts per start and they usually range from 6-9 strikeouts per start. One thing that will help Porcello tonight is he has the lowest walk rate on the slate at 2.8% and he isn’t allowing many baserunners at all since his WHIP is 0.82. The Yankees we all know hit for tons of home runs and power, but Porcello doesn’t give up any home runs and has a 47% groundball rate and only gives up 27% Hard contact. I think Porcello is a fantastic GPP play here tonight.

Nick Pivetta (6.7k FD) (6.9k DK) (14k FD2) vs SF

UHM, WHY is Pivetta so cheap?!?! This is a spot we take advantage of. The Giants have looked AWFUL these last two games against Phillies pitching and they see another guy who can rack up strikeouts. Eflin and Nola just totally shut down this offense and it is hard to move off them now. Pivetta has the LOWEST Hard% on the day today at just 23% and has a 24% strikeout rate. He’s pitching with a 3.74 SIERA which is just around average too. He has a couple rough outings in a row against 2 very good offenses and his salary drops a lot when he gets a plus matchup tonight. I expect Pivetta to go 6 innings tonight while getting around 7-8 strikeouts in this one. The Giants have a 24.7% K rate in their L14 vs RHP and 26% in their L7. They are still getting extremely lucky with a .380 BABIP, so their struggles are not surprising to me at all. Pivetta is an EXCELLENT SP2 in all formats tonight and I love him in GPPs for FD.

Chris Stratton (7.6k FD) (5.9k DK) (12.1k FD2) @ PHI

I do think Stratton is a bit expensive on fanduel here tonight, but he is appealing on DK and FD2. In 4 of his last 5 starts, Stratton has scored 43, 46, 49, -5, and 37 fanduel points. That one horrible game came against the Dodgers, and they are the only team this year that he has not done well against. Excluding those 3 starts vs LAD, he has gone 6+ in every other outing. The main reason he is appealing to me in GPPs tonight is the amount the Phillies strikeout. Yes, I know they are starting to heat up of late, but they still have the 3^rd highest K% in their L7 games at 28% which is up 3% from their L14 days. He is allowing just a .303 wOBA and .218 BAA so far this year and has only given up 3 home runs. Now, pitching in Philly hasn’t been all that easy for many pitchers this year, but I do think Stratton is a guy who can put up a nice number considering he can get some strikeouts. He’s struggled a bit at home so far this year, and no way I trust him in cash, but with a lot of people looking towards the Phillies bats, I think he’s a good GPP play. Just because I wrote him up though, doesn’t mean that I won’t play Phillies bats because they have been on fire.

Julio Teheran (7.4k FD) (8.9k DK) (17k FD2) @ TB

Another game in TB that I like a pitcher in. Teheran was fantastic last start, and he’s always better on the road since ATL moved. He’s throwing more of this slider this year and more changeups than last year and that could be resulting in more success. Newcomb just shut down this Rays offense last night and they have been a little worse over their last week. He’s registering a career-high 12.3% SwStr%, a career low 72% contact rate, a good 30.7% whiff rate on the season so far. Some of his other advanced stats do not look that great, but he still has a 23% K rate. He’s walking too many hitters for me and his SIERA is a bit high, but outside of 3 starts this year he has been great. Teheran has scored 37, 52, 43, and 49 fanduel points in his best starts and the ones he struggled in were against the Nationals and Phillies. I do think Teheran has upside in this matchup with the Rays tonight in GPPs.

Patrick Corbin (10k FD) (13.3k DK) (25.5k FD2) @ LAD

This is his 3^rd start of the year against the Dodgers and he’s been good in his first two. On this young season, Corbin has generated a 34.7% K rate which is top on the main slate. He’s also pitching with just a 2.42 SIERA and allowing much less than a baserunner per inning. Corbin has been getting his a little hard this year (35%), but he’s also been getting 50% groundballs. He’s developed a wonderful curveball to go with his amazing slider and fastball. This could be the reasons why he is getting a career-high 15.7% SwStr%, career low contact rate at 65%, and he’s getting almost 37% O-Swing%, plus a 37.71% Whiff rate on his pitches too. The Dodgers are a very hot and cold team but tonight in LA, I think Corbin prevails and he is one of the better cash options tonight.

Alex Wood (8.4k FD) (7.6k DK) (14.8k FD2) vs ARI

Wood is definitely not the pitcher he was at the beginning of last season and has seen his velocity on just about all his pitches drop, but he still isn’t pitching horribly. The main reason I really like him tonight is the amount the Diamondbacks are striking out to LHP in their last 7 games. In the Dbacks projected lineup, they have just 2 lefties and 7 righties. This season so far, Wood has been better against RHH allowing just a .220 wOBA, .182 average, while getting 24.6% strikeouts. The thing I like about Wood is he is stranding runners on base which is good and he has a WHIP under 1 still. Arizona has the 3^rd highest K% in the last week against LHP at 31.7% with a higher .355 BABIP too. Wood isn’t getting as many groundballs as we are used too and that could be because of his decline in velocity on his sinker, but he still isn’t pitching badly by no means. He has history against these Dbacks team and while they have some great power numbers against him, the fact that he’s been able to get more RHH out helps him. We cannot trust him in cash in this matchup, but in larger field GPPs I think he could be worth a shot, hot offenses slow down at some point and tonight could be the night for Wood and the Dodgers in LA.

MAIN SLATE RANKINGS

Patrick Corbin (all formats)
Nick Pivetta (All formats)
Rick Porcello (GPP)
Alex Wood (GPP)
Chris Stratton (GPP)
Julio Teheran (GPP)

NOTE: I think this is a great GPP slate and there are more viable pitchers than usual with not many studs on the hill tonight. Yes, I just listed these 6 pitchers, and they are my favorite, but guys like Gio and Lucchesi are interesting to me but just missed the cut for me tonight and they are very boom or bust in their matchup against each other. I’ll be in and out of slack during the day today and we have tons of other articles and coaches around! If you want to chat pitching today feel free to ask any question in my slack channel #mdell-mlb-pitching!

GOOD LUCK DFSARMY!