Pitching Breakdown Tuesday, May 8^th,  2018

In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.

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I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.

Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!

NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that in the write-up!

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Definitions of Stats used in articles via Fangraphs.com

K% (Strikeout Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has struck out a batter, calculated as strikeouts divided by total batters faced.

An average K% is 20%, anything above is considered great or elite

BB% (Walk Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has issued a walk, calculated as walks divided by total batters faced. Average BB% for pitchers is 7.7%, anything lower is considered great or elite

BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The rate at which the pitcher allows a hit when the ball is put in play. A BABIP at or near .300 is considered average. EXAMPLE: if a pitcher has a BABIP of .200 it means he could be getting lucky and balls in play are turned into outs if they have a BABIP of .400 he could be getting unlucky on balls in play and they are turning into hits.

xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): An estimate of a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, and fly balls allowed, assuming league average results on balls in play and home run to fly ball ratio. The Lower the xFIP the better. 3.80 is around average.

SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): An ERA estimator that attempts to more accurately capture a pitcher’s performance based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, home runs, and batted ball data. The lower the better 3.90 is considered average, so anything below that is great to excellent. Anything about is poor.

Hard% (Hard Contact Percentage): Percentage of hard-hit batted balls. Anything below 30% is considered average or better. the lower Hard% the better, meaning pitchers are giving up more soft contact.

wRC+: A rate statistic that credits a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treating them all equally. League average is 100, each point above or below that is one percentage point better or worse than league average. wRC+ is a better representation of offense value.

O-Swing% = Swings at pitches outside the zone/pitches outside the zone

Z-Swing%  = Swings at pitches inside the zone/pitches inside the zone

Swing% = Swings/Pitches

O-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches outside the zone / Swings on pitches outside the zone

Z-Contact%  = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches inside the zone / Swings on pitches inside the zone

SwStr% = Swings and misses/Total Pitches

 

Yesterday’s Results: (here I will post fantasy points from previous day’s picks)

1. Stephen Strasburg (37 FD) (19.55 DK)
2. Kyle Hendricks (37 FD) (20.4 DK)
3. Jarlin Garcia (0 FD) (-3.8 DK)
4. Michael Fulmer (21 FD) (11.05 DK)
5. P.J. Conlon (-0.85 DK)
6. John Gant (18 FD) (8.45 DK)
7. Fernando Romero (55 FD) (31.3 DK)

 

Main Slate

Luis Severino (10.1k FD) (10k DK) (19.5k FD2) vs BOS

I do not think he will be all that popular here especially against the Red Sox. I don’t trust him in cash games tonight, but love him for GPPs. In his career, he seems to have a good game every other start against the Sox, that is good news since his last start against them was bad. Since that start, Severino has gone 6+ in all 4 games, including a CGSO vs Houston in Houston. Over his last 4 starts he has 29 innings, just 4 earned runs and striking out 32 hitters in that span. Severino has gotten a 26.5% K rate on the season and his walks have been going down in recent starts. His last 2 starts he’s gotten almost 60% groundballs in each start and hitters are hitting just 28% hard contact against him. He has a decent SIERA at 3.48 so far this season. It seems like every time he faces the Sox Benintendi hurts him somehow, so he is the one I am MOST worried about. The Red Sox do have a 28.2% K rate against Severino and he had 8 K’s in his first start against them this season even though he gave up 5 runs. He opens up as a -200 favorite but like I said, I’ll keep him in GPPs tonight.

Aaron Nola (9k FD) (10.1k DK) (19.3k FD2) vs SF

Zach Eflin just dominated this Giants team last night, and I hope writing up Nola doesn’t make him have a bad start here. The Giants have been a lot better of late, but after Eflin dominated them last night, I think Nola can match him here tonight. Before last night, the Giants have been rather hot of late, but a .422 BABIP vs RHP helps that. They haven’t been striking out a lot either, but Nola has top-notch K stuff, even though he hasn’t shown much of it this year so far. He did get back over the 20% K rate mark after his last start, and he should be back on his way up to getting almost 9 K/9 like his last 2 seasons in the bigs. What I love about his pitching is he is only giving up 21.6% Hard contact and getting 51% groundballs. The Giants will probably roll out 5 lefties and Nola has been a little worse against them. He’s been MUCH worse getting strikeouts against lefties as he only strikes out 9.8% of lefties opposed to 32.5% righties. Once he figures out how to grab some more strikeouts against lefties, he will be nearly unhittable and fantasy gold. He still has less than 1 WHIP which shows us he isn’t allowing that many baserunners. Although lefties do not strike out a lot against him, they only get 16% Hard contact and still groundout 53% of the time with just a .253 wOBA. He’s been very good all season and will look to keep it rolling here tonight.

James Paxton (9.5k FD) (11k DK) (21.6k FD2) @ TOR

 No, it’s not a Slider against the Blue Jays, but it is James Paxton. He has been phenomenal this year and has been able to get a 35.7% K rate on the year with a fantastic 2.93 SIERA. He’s allowing a bit more flyballs this year than last year which worries me some, but still only gives up 1 HR/9. With the number of strikeouts he can get 1 HR won’t kill him. He was able to get 16 K’s last start, I don’t see it happening again tonight, but he can still snag 8+. The history against the Blue Jays isn’t the best, but he’s still one of the better pitchers on the slate. He’s had 2 bad starts this year and other than that has been able to get 30+ fanduel points in every start but those two. He’s usually good for 6 innings and about 7 K’s per start. I do see him having a quality outing here tonight.

Blake Snell (8.5k FD) (8.9k DK) (17.1k FD2) vs ATL

 I do not usually like to pick on the Braves, but I do like the way Snell has been pitching this season, especially at home. He’s allowing just a .223 wOBA at home and under a .200 average with a 24.6% K rate and just 3% walk rate. His ability so far this year to keep hitters off base has been key to his success as he has less than a 1.00 WHIP this year. The Braves are VERY good against lefties and rarely strike out (14.5%) but, it is hard to ignore how Snell has been this year. He has been very reliable this year and been able to eat up innings, going at least 6 innings in each of his last 5 starts and hasn’t had less than 30 fanduel points with 3 50+ point outings. He has faced some good teams too and has still been successful. Outside of his 2^nd start of the year he has not allowed more than 2 ER in his starts and has racked up 5 straight quality starts allowing only 5 hits in each game and 1 hit against the White Sox. I don’t think we can use him in cash tonight, but I do think he could be a lower owned GPP play because people do not like to use pitchers against the Braves.

Sean Newcomb (7.9k FD) (8.5k DK) (16k FD2) @ TB

 I do think this one has the chance to be either a very low scoring game or very high. I think we can see a well-pitched game by both young lefties tonight, plus Vegas has this at just 7.5 total to open up. Newcomb was amazing in his last start and will look to keep it rolling tonight. Over their L14 they have been VERY good against LHP, but in their last 7 they have cooled off a bit. Outside of his first start this year, Newcomb has put up no less than 27 fanduel points and has gone 6+ innings in 4 of his last 5 starts. He’s got a very nice 29% K rate on this young season pitching with a better than average SIERA of 3.58. His ability to get almost 7% more groundballs this year could be leading to more success and he has gotten 9% more soft contact than he did last year. He has a very good 11% SwStr% and a low 73% contact% on the year. He’s also been much better on the road this year able to get 2 more K/9 and walking fewer batters. The Rays have hitters who his LHP well, but Newcomb actually has a higher K% against RHH so far this year and giving up less HR to them too. I think he can limit this Rays team here tonight and I do think this will be a lower scoring game, while these two are in the game anyways.

Corey Kluber (11.4k FD) (13.6k DK) (26.4k FD2) @ MIL

Kluber comes in and faces a Brewers team who have not been doing much at all lately. Against RHP in their L14 they have just a 66 wRC+ but are not striking out as much as usual at just 21%, BUT if you look at their K% in their L7 it goes up to 25.6%. He’s been one of the most consistent pitchers this year and has not gone LESS than 6 innings in any start and has won 5 straight decisions. He is expensive and rightfully so. If we can find the value hitters which we should be able to on such a big slate he will likely be a bit chalky. For his price over 11k on fanduel, we do want to see a 50+ point start which he has the ability to do BUT has only done it twice this year. Now, it does not make me like him any less, but I don’t want to feel the need to jam him in if the value doesn’t open up as I do think others could do well value-wise compared to Kluber. Don’t be fooled though, Kluber still has a 27.5% K rate this year and a low 4.7% walk rate with a 3.11 SIERA on this young season. I can see Kluber being able to get 10+ strikeouts in this start though against the Brewers.

Lance McCullers (9.1k FD) (11.3k DK) (22.3k FD2) @ OAK

We get a nice discount down to McCullers and I love him tonight. Lance has been very good this year with a 29% K rate and a very low 3.14 SIERA, allowing just 31% Hard contact, getting 62.4% groundballs, and getting a career-high 13.9% SwStr%. Add in that he is also getting a career-low 69% contact rate with a 31.82% whiff rate, he looks like a fantastic play tonight. The A’s have the highest K% to RHP over their L14 days and have one of the lowest wRC+ at 68 and lowest wOBA at .269. When a whole offense is at the top/bottom of the league in these categories I absolutely love to pick on them for a bit. McCullers has been suburb this year only have 1 start below 30 fanduel points and that was his blowup game against the Twins. Just facing the A’s on April 28^th, he racked up 52 fanduel points, going 7 innings allowing just 2 hits with 7 K’s. I’m not sure how many people will go down to Lance tonight, but I love him in this spot for all formats.

Sean Manaea (8.6k FD) (9.5k DK) (18.7k FD2) vs HOU

 I think Houston may have used up all their runs last night and did not save many for tonight. Manaea just faced this Houston team 2 starts ago and put up 52 fanduel points. He’s been one of the most consistent pitchers this year scoring no less than 21 fanduel points and having 3 different 40 point games, 2 50 point games, and his 67 point no-hitter against the Red Sox. He comes into this game with a 23% K rate, a 24.92% whiff rate, and isn’t walking many hitters (3.8%) while having the 3^rd lowest ERA in the AL. His SIERA of 3.56 will call for a little bit of regression, but not too much. The Astros also do not have the best success against him over 161 at-bats. They are hitting just .211 with a wOBA of .267 and only have 6 extra-base hits with a 24.2% K rate. No one on the HOU roster has over a .300 average against him (besides Reddick, but only has 6 at-bats). I expect this to be a nice pitcher’s duel tonight with both starts riding hot streaks.

Jeremy Hellickson (6k FD) (6k DK) (11.7k FD2) @ SD

 Hellickson is not a pretty play by no means, but he’s been decent so far this season. As Keith showed us in Slack, he actually has the 2^nd lowest aEV on the slate tonight and is allowing just 26.6% Hard%. His ability to get groundballs is helping him out a bit this year because he doesn’t strike many hitters out. I think he is good for about 20-25 Fanduel points here tonight against the Padres. San Diego has not been the best against RHP and owns a 29.3% K rate. which is the 3^rd highest over the L14 and they have a low .108 ISO. Hellickson will not light up the gun or rack up 8 K’s, but I think he can snag 5 tonight and if he goes deep enough can get a QS and Win against these Padres. I also think he can be a cheap SP2 in tournaments considering he is so cheap in a positive matchup with San Diego.

MAIN SLATE RANKINGS

1. Corey Kluber (all formats)
2. Aaron Nola (all formats)
3. Lance McCullers (all formats)
4. Luis Severino (lean GPP)
5. James Paxton (lean GPP)
6. Sean Manaea (GPP)
7. Sean Newcomb (GPP)
8. Blake Snell (GPP)
9. Jeremy Hellickson (GPP)