Pitching Breakdown
Monday, May 7th, 2018
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!
I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that in the write-up!
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Definitions of Stats used in articles via Fangraphs.com
K% (Strikeout Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has struck out a batter, calculated as strikeouts divided by total batters faced.
An average K% is 20%, anything above is considered great or elite
BB% (Walk Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has issued a walk, calculated as walks divided by total batters faced. Average BB% for pitchers is 7.7%, anything lower is considered great or elite
BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The rate at which the pitcher allows a hit when the ball is put in play. A BABIP at or near .300 is considered average. EXAMPLE: if a pitcher has a BABIP of .200 it means he could be getting lucky and balls in play are turned into outs if they have a BABIP of .400 he could be getting unlucky on balls in play and they are turning into hits.
xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): An estimate of a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, and fly balls allowed, assuming league average results on balls in play and home run to fly ball ratio. The Lower the xFIP the better. 3.80 is around average.
SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): An ERA estimator that attempts to more accurately capture a pitcher’s performance based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, home runs, and batted ball data. The lower the better 3.90 is considered average, so anything below that is great to excellent. Anything about is poor.
Hard% (Hard Contact Percentage): Percentage of hard-hit batted balls. Anything below 30% is considered average or better. the lower Hard% the better, meaning pitchers are giving up more soft contact.
wRC+: A rate statistic that credits a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treating them all equally. League average is 100, each point above or below that is one percentage point better or worse than league average. wRC+ is a better representation of offense value.
O-Swing% = Swings at pitches outside the zone/pitches outside the zone
Z-Swing% = Swings at pitches inside the zone/pitches inside the zone
Swing% = Swings/Pitches
O-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches outside the zone / Swings on pitches outside the zone
Z-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches inside the zone / Swings on pitches inside the zone
SwStr% = Swings and misses/Total Pitches
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Yesterday’s Results: (here I will post fantasy points from previous day’s picks)
- Justin Verlander (43 FD) (23.9 DK)
- Andrew Triggs (55 FD) (34.55 DK)
- Shohei Ohtani (40 FD) (20.1 DK)
- Felix Hernandez (15 FD) (4.65 DK)
- Ross Stripling (27 FD) (15.4 DK)
Main Slate
Kyle Hendricks (7.9k FD) (9.6k DK) (18.4k FD2) vs MIA: This slate could actually be a decent one. There are some pitching options that I like and some that are going to get blown up. Starting with Hendricks here, he is one of the safer options tonight and he is cheap. He isn’t a guy that will light up anything or go out there and grab 10 K’s but he is usually consistent. He has a below average K% at 19%, but still have a near average SIERA and is allowing just over a batter on base per inning. Miami can be pesky and we know that, but their advanced stats are not improving at all. They still have the 8th highest K% in the L14 vs RHP at 24.1% and have a below average wRC+ at 73 and their wOBA is just .275 which is the lowest on the slate vs RHP. If you want to find a guy who eats up innings, Hendricks is normally safe for 6+. He has gone 7.2 and 7 in his last two then 2 of 6 innings. He faced Miami in his first start this year and went 6 innings with 5 Ks and just 1 ER. I see another performance like that one tonight and the Cubs will want to try and snag a win against a beatable Marlins team after losing a tough one last night. Talk about Mr. Consistency though, in 6 starts this year, Hendricks has just 1 that was less than 30 fanduel points and that’s when he got blown up vs the Brewers. He does a great job getting groundballs and does not normally get hit very hard either. In 64 at-bats against Hendricks, the Marlins have just a .219 average with a .265 wOBA and only 2 XBH. Like I’ve said before, the Marlins can single the crap out of pitchers, but I still think Hendricks is fairly safe tonight and he’s also the biggest favorite as of now too.
Jarlin Garcia (7.1k FD) (5.9k DK) (11.8k FD2) @ CHC: The first thing I notice about Garcia is the pricing difference. He is VERY cheap on Draftkings and Fantasydraft tonight and makes for an excellent SP2 in all formats. His BABIP suggests he has been getting fairly lucky this year, but to only give up 4 earned runs in 33 innings means something. He’s not a high strikeout guy but he’s been able to go 6 innings 4 times this year (1 of them wasn’t even a start). He’s started 4 in a row after 2 relief appearances and has surprised a lot of people. His first outing this season came against these cubs and he went 6 innings in relief getting 6 K’s and allowing just 1 hit. The Cubs just played a LONG game last night that had a few rain delays and they could be tired and rest some guys tonight. Put into account that they haven’t been able to do much against lefties in their L14 helps too. They have just a 20% K rate, but also are bottom 5 in wRC+ vs LHP at just 62 with a .260 wOBA in that span. They also rank bottom 3 in wOBA to RHP in their last 14 days too. They just are not hitting all that much. Regression will likely come to Garcia sooner rather than later, but if he can continue to go 6 innings in a game and have a chance to win, I think we can risk it right now, especially on a smaller slate like tonight.
Michael Fulmer (8.3k FD) (8k DK) (15.4k FD2) @ TEX: I’ve been going back and forth on Fulmer all morning, but I think we could take a shot at him. I do not think he is particularly safe given the matchup in hot Texas with a lineup projected to have 6 lefties in it. If Fulmer struggles, it comes to left-handed hitters, and Texas has some powerful ones. The one thing that led me to writing him up is the Rangers have the highest K% to RHP in their L14 at 29%. This could open up to a couple more strikeouts than Fulmer is used to. He’s also been very good so far this year going at least 6 innings in all but 2 of his starts and only had 1 start where he scored less than 30 fanduel points. He’s never been a big strikeout guy, but usually is good for 4-6 per game. This play will hinder mainly on how many lefties they actually roll out as too how much exposure I want to him in MME format tonight, but probably cap him around 25% max with a low 3% min just to have at least a couple lineups with him in it. I do not think I will be using him in cash games because there is a ton of risk in hot Texas, but in large-GPPs, given the fact that the Rangers strikeout a TON, I would be willing to take a small chance on him.
Stephen Strasburg (10k FD) (13.6k DK) (26.7k FD2) @ SD: Here’s your chalk of the night, and he’s going to be good chalk, in your cash games just eat it. He goes back home to pitch in San Diego where he is very familiar with as he grew up there and went to SDSU for college. In my quarter games tonight I do think I will go up a bit from the 40% max exposure that Donuts explains, up to maybe 50% and set a min of 15-20% for him as I do think he’s the best option tonight and will be the highest scorer. The Padres are not that good and have a 28.2% K rate in their L14 to RHP. Strasburg has also shut down pretty much everyone on their roster as they are hitting just .206 against him with a lowly .250 wOBA and a high 30% K rate. Not going to waste all your time on the best play on this slate, single lineup guys and gals use him and differentiate with hitters, for the multiple lineup people, limit exposure, but make sure you still have a ton of him.
P.J. Conlon (4k DK) (8k FD2) @ CIN: What a surprise, he isn’t in the fanduel player pool. Well, he is min price on the other two sites tonight and he’s worth the risk in tournaments. In his short minors stints since he’s been drafted, he has gotten around 7 K/9 and has very good control. He doesn’t give up many home runs at all (in the minors) and walks less than 3 per 9. He’s been fairly split neutral in the minors so far too. The Reds have been pretty good of late, but have a 24.8% K rate in their L14 vs LHP. He has a bit of a deceptive delivery which helps his best pitch look even better (his changeup). Speaking of pitches, he throws a fastball that has a little sink to it that normally is up in the high 80s, a change-up, and a curveball. Tournament play on those two sites and he could come away with a respectable MLB-Debut.
For MME folks out there, I will set a MIN exposure to John Gant (STL) and Fernando Romero (MIN) at 3-5% so I get a couple lineups with them, but also make sure to have a hedge stack because like Mitch (donuts) said the other day with some of his pitchers, they can pitch well or get absolutely shredded. I do like how they look, and they are worth a shot in MME.
That’s all from me today, below are the rankings and see y’all in Slack! Good Luck DFSArmy and keep the money train rolling!
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
- Stephen Strasburg (all formats, will also be my highest owned pitcher and is the clear cut #1 tonight)
- Kyle Hendricks (all formats)
- Jarlin Garcia (GPP)
- Michael Fulmer (GPP)
- J. Conlon (GPP)
- John Gant/Fernando Romero (GPPs)
