Pitching Breakdown

Friday, May 4^th, 2018

In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.

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I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.

Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!

NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that in the write-up!

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Definitions of Stats used in articles via Fangraphs.com

K% (Strikeout Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has struck out a batter, calculated as strikeouts divided by total batters faced.

An average K% is 20%, anything above is considered great or elite

BB% (Walk Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has issued a walk, calculated as walks divided by total batters faced. Average BB% for pitchers is 7.7%, anything lower is considered great or elite

BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The rate at which the pitcher allows a hit when the ball is put in play. A BABIP at or near .300 is considered average. EXAMPLE: if a pitcher has a BABIP of .200 it means he could be getting lucky and balls in play are turned into outs if they have a BABIP of .400 he could be getting unlucky on balls in play and they are turning into hits.

xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): An estimate of a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, and fly balls allowed, assuming league average results on balls in play and home run to fly ball ratio. The Lower the xFIP the better. 3.80 is around average.

SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): An ERA estimator that attempts to more accurately capture a pitcher’s performance based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, home runs, and batted ball data. The lower the better 3.90 is considered average, so anything below that is great to excellent. Anything about is poor.

Hard% (Hard Contact Percentage): Percentage of hard-hit batted balls. Anything below 30% is considered average or better. the lower Hard% the better, meaning pitchers are giving up more soft contact.

wRC+: A rate statistic that credits a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treating them all equally. League average is 100, each point above or below that is one percentage point better or worse than league average. wRC+ is a better representation of offense value.

O-Swing% = Swings at pitches outside the zone/pitches outside the zone

Z-Swing%  = Swings at pitches inside the zone/pitches inside the zone

Swing% = Swings/Pitches

O-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches outside the zone / Swings on pitches outside the zone

Z-Contact%  = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches inside the zone / Swings on pitches inside the zone

SwStr% = Swings and misses/Total Pitches

 

Yesterday’s Results: (here I will post fantasy points from previous day’s picks)

We have a MUCH better slate of pitching options tonight than we had all day yesterday, so without further ado let’s get after it!

Main Slate

Gio Gonzalez (8.8k FD) (10.2k DK) (19.3k FD2) vs PHI: The first pitcher listed is already better than anyone we had yesterday. Gio has been fairly good so far this season with just one game under 30 fanduel points. The one issue I have with him is he only has gone 6+ twice this year and all the rest have been 5 or 5.1 innings. The thing helping him is he has been around 5-8 strikeouts each outing. This year he’s pitching with a 3.85 SIERA which is right around where we call average. He’s getting 25% K rate while getting 48.5% groundballs. Philly was a team I didn’t like to pick on for a while, but now they are just not doing good and are striking out a TON. They have the 3^rd highest K rate against LHP in their L14 at 28.6% and have just a .046 ISO, .262 wOBA, and 59 wRC+. All of these numbers rank at or near the bottom of the league in this span. Their current roster has 93 at-bats against Gio and are hitting only .161 with a .222 wOBA and 27.9% K rate. They have just TWO extra-base hits in this span as well. I’m thinking he could be a tad popular tonight but I still like his upside in all formats.

J.A. Happ (9.5k FD) (11.7k DK) (22.8k FD2) @ TB: Happ has surprised a lot of people this year, me included. He has gone at least 6 innings in 4 of his 6 starts so far this year with his last two games going 7 innings. He has 3 outings over 50 or more fanduel points and just one under 30. The aspect of his pitching right now that I LOVE is his ability to get strikeouts. He faced a couple teams (BOS and KC) that do not strike out a lot and he was able to get 10 vs BOS and 8 vs KC. Now he faces a Rays team that we know can struggle even though they have been fairly hot recently. The Rays roster has just a .230 average with .283 wOBA in 61 at-bats. At age 35, Happ is looking like he’s 25 again on the mound. He’s getting a career-high 34% K rate this season average 12.5 K/9 with just a 4.8% walk rate. He’s not allowing many baserunners at all with a WHIP just around 1. One thing I love about his advanced stats is he isn’t getting lucky in the BABIP stat, it’s pretty average a .296. He’s pitching to a wonderful 2.45 while allowing 27% Hard% and generating 48% groundballs. Guess what else he has a career high in? Swinging Strike% at 13.1%, he’s only giving up 72.5% contact rate, and he’s getting a decent 33.09% whiff rate so far this year. Happ has been so good this year and he will slow down the Rays hot offense right now.

Rick Porcello (9k FD) (10.8k DK) (21.6k FD2) @ TEX: Porcello, unlike Price has had a great season thus far. He does not have an outing under 31 fanduel points and 4 of the 6 have scored over 40 fanduel points. The thing I do love about him is he has gone 6+ innings in every start except his first one. Texas TEE’d off on Price last night, but they have not been as good to RHP as they have LHP. They have been around average in everything, but have a 25% K rate. Another thing I love about him right now is he is walking virtually no one (now that I said it he will have like 5 tonight). He has a 24.2% K rate which is rather high for him in his career and for once he isn’t getting hit hard, just a 25% Hard% against, and has a career-best 3.16 SIERA to this point. Being able to generate 49% groundballs is helping him out and having a 31.91% whiff rate helps too. He should get plenty of strikeouts tonight. I think we could use Porcello in most formats tonight.

Jose Berrios (8.4k FD) (9.8k DK) (18.5k FD2) @ CHW: A young stud that is pitching amazing this year. He’s been a bit better with his control only walking batters in 3 games this year and having no more than 3 in these. He had a rough last two outings but he faced the Reds and the Yankees both teams who were and have been hot lately. Now, he gets a White Sox team who he totally crushed earlier this year when he went 7 innings with 11 K’s. Chicago has AWFUL numbers against Berrios in 83 at-bats. They are striking out at an insane 46.9% rate while hitting just .108 with a .165 wOBA. That is some OWNAGE right there. He has a 22.54% whiff rate so far this season and will likely get you 6+ strikeouts in this matchup. Righties will have a very hard time hitting him as he is allowing just a .199 wOBA against them striking out 31.8% of them too. I love that his WHIP is 0.92 because it means he’s not allowing that many baserunners. There are actually a TON of options here tonight and I think COULD get overlooked. He’s in a fantastic spot tonight. I do think I will leave him more towards GPPs but I do think there are so many options in his price range that he could get overlooked.

Nick Kingham (8k FD) (6.8k DK) (13.6k FD2) @ MIL: WOW, fanduel has jacked his price up really quick. I like his value on draftkings and Fantasydraft tonight, FD may be a tough pill to swallow for a guy making his 2^nd MLB start. He did look amazing in his first big league start. I have been talking back and forth with another DFSArmy staff member “Thunder Dan” who has followed Kingham during his minor league career and he sees a lot of promise in the kid. His minor league numbers are nothing too special, but all above average. The Brewers can strike out a ton and he’s one of the top prospects for the Pirates. He has showed near a 50% groundball rate in the minors and this year was getting 10.72 K/9 in AAA. I won’t be trusting him in cash just yet, but he could be a good GPP play, I just hope after his first start he isn’t TOO popular.

Walker Buehler (7.7k FD) (8.6k DK) (17.1k FD2) @ SD: Both sides of this game feature young guns who have impressed so far this year. Buehler has yet to go past 5 innings in his first two starts, but they are probably just getting him accustomed to the MLB. He’s still put up 30 Fanduel points in both of his first starts and now gets to face the Padres in a pitcher-friendly park against a team that likes to strikeout. With the options tonight and Buehler’s price skyrocketing from his last start, I think people may forget about it. He is the Dodgers top pitching prospect and shows a lot of promise. He was able to snag over 10 K/9 every stop of the way in the minors and has a 25.6% K rate this year in his two starts. An amazing thing about him is his ability to light up the radar gun and grab 66% groundballs. He can throw near 100 with movement! That’s outstanding! The Padres rank in the bottom 10 in wRC+ and have a 26.6% strikeout rate in their L14 vs RHP.

Joey Lucchesi (8.6k FD) (8.3k DK) (16.3k FD2) vs LAD: This young gun has impressed a lot of people this year too. I think this game has the chance to go under the 7.5 total with two young and promising pitchers on the mound for both teams. He’s pitched 5 innings in every start in his young season and only had one that was under 30 Fanduel points, that’s pretty impressive for a rookie. He’s been able to show off strikeout stuff with a 26.9% K rate so far on this young season. He’s pitching to a 3.56 SIERA which is pretty good. The Dodgers have been a little better against LHP and haven’t been striking out as much, but I think the upside for Lucchesi is there. He’s been fairly split neutral so far, but pitching better at home allowing just a .252 wOBA compared to .322 on the road. Lefties will have a hard time not striking out against him as the Dodgers will likely have just 3 in their lineup, but LHH have a 34.4% K rate against him. He’s been able to get more groundballs against lefties too, but righties have hit more flyballs on him and are the only ones to hit a HR off him this year. There are a ton of GPP options that I like tonight and Lucchesi is up there.

Gerrit Cole (11k FD) (12.4k DK) (23.7k FD2) @ ARI: The most expensive pitcher on the slate today by a wide margin and I think it may cause him to be lower owned. Cole has been one of the best pitchers this year and the Astros rotation has been on fire. He comes into this start with an outrageous 39.4% K rate and just a 5% BB rate. He’s pitching to a slate low 2.13 SIERA this year and has looked un-hittable at times this year. His success can be because he’s getting an unimaginable swinging strike rate at 16% while hitters are making contact just 67% of the time which is very low. They virtually are not making contact on pitches outside the zone and are swinging at 32.6% of pitches outside the zone. He’s getting the 4^th highest whiff rate this season at 32.17% while getting 49.48% swing rate on his pitches. That’s a really good ratio right there. I think the success of the Diamondbacks recently, along with the price of Cole may scare people away from him, but that makes me like him even more. He’s simply been amazing this year and he will look to shut down the Dbacks tonight.

Miles Mikolas (7.4k FD) (8k DK) (14.9k FD2) vs CHC: A play I don’t think many people will be on tonight. Mikolas has been very good this year and the Cubs have not been great recently. Aside from his first two starts this season, he has gone 7 innings in his last 3 scoring at least 40 fanduel points in all of his last 3. He will likely be able to get you 5-7 strikeouts in his one tonight and if he is able to limit the damage from the Cubs power bats he could have a solid game. Looking back at the Cubs game scores, they have not scored more than 3 runs in their last 8 games. Yes, you read that correctly. The last time they scored more than 3 runs was April 24^th against the Indians. A great thing about Mikolas is he isn’t walking anyone and has a WHIP under 1 to start this season. He’s also pitching with a very solid SIERA at 3.39 and getting 50% groundballs this year. Miles is allowing just a .276 wOBA this year and to go along with his great SIERA he has a great xFIP at 3.22. He’s been a tad better against righties this year so far and the Cubs will likely have 5 in their lineup with 4 lefties, but one being the pitcher. I think Mikolas can easily put up another 30+ point game here tonight at home.

Mike Foltynewicz (8.1k FD) (9.4k DK) (18.1k FD2) vs SF: Okay you guys have made it to my last pitcher of the article! WOO! Give yourself a pat on the back! Folty has been a guy we used to pick on last year A LOT, but this year he has been very good. He has just 2 starts this year that have been under 30 fanduel points, but he has been able to generate strikeouts. Outside of 1 start he has at least 6 K’s in every start this year. He’s getting a 29.3% K rate this season pitching with a 3.77 SIERA. He’s getting a career-low contact% against and a career-high swinging strike rate. There are SO many options on this slate tonight, I think we can take chances in some places. The Giants lineup does not scare me all that much outside of Belt who is the main guy hitting for them right now. They come in with the 8^th highest K% to RHP in their L14 at 24%. His struggles usually come against LHH, but he has changed that around this year. He’s allowing just a .205 average and .297 wOBA against this year getting strikeouts all over the place. I think he’s a good shot in GPPs tonight and I doubt he will be owned much.

MAIN SLATE RANKINGS

1. Gerrit Cole (all formats)
2. A. Happ (all formats)
3. Jose Berrios (all formats)
4. Rick Porcello (lean GPP)
5. Gio Gonzalez (lean GPP)
6. Walker Buehler (GPP)
7. Joey Lucchesi (GPP)
8. Nick Kingham (GPP)
9. Mike Foltynewicz (GPP)
10. Miles Mikolas (GPP)

 

As you see, we have a bunch of options here tonight. I wouldn’t not be opposed to using any of these guys in my lineups. Pair this with your own research and choose the pitchers you think are best! I know there are other options on the slate tonight, but out of 30 options, I cannot list all of them and even 10 is a lot to list.

Good Luck everyone on this #freebiefriday !