Pitching Breakdown
Wednesday, May 2nd, 2018
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!
I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that in the write-up!
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Definitions of Stats used in articles via Fangraphs.com
K% (Strikeout Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has struck out a batter, calculated as strikeouts divided by total batters faced.
An average K% is 20%, anything above is considered great or elite
BB% (Walk Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has issued a walk, calculated as walks divided by total batters faced. Average BB% for pitchers is 7.7%, anything lower is considered great or elite
BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The rate at which the pitcher allows a hit when the ball is put in play. A BABIP at or near .300 is considered average. EXAMPLE: if a pitcher has a BABIP of .200 it means he could be getting lucky and balls in play are turned into outs if they have a BABIP of .400 he could be getting unlucky on balls in play and they are turning into hits.
xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): An estimate of a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, and fly balls allowed, assuming league average results on balls in play and home run to fly ball ratio. The Lower the xFIP the better. 3.80 is around average.
SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): An ERA estimator that attempts to more accurately capture a pitcher’s performance based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, home runs, and batted ball data. The lower the better 3.90 is considered average, so anything below that is great to excellent. Anything about is poor.
Hard% (Hard Contact Percentage): Percentage of hard-hit batted balls. Anything below 30% is considered average or better. the lower Hard% the better, meaning pitchers are giving up more soft contact.
wRC+: A rate statistic that credits a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treating them all equally. League average is 100, each point above or below that is one percentage point better or worse than league average. wRC+ is a better representation of offense value.
O-Swing% = Swings at pitches outside the zone/pitches outside the zone
Z-Swing% = Swings at pitches inside the zone/pitches inside the zone
Swing% = Swings/Pitches
O-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches outside the zone / Swings on pitches outside the zone
Z-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches inside the zone / Swings on pitches inside the zone
SwStr% = Swings and misses/Total Pitches
Yesterday’s Results: (here I will post fantasy points from previous day’s picks)
- Max Scherzer (46 FD) (26.5 DK)
- Clayton Kershaw (34 FD) (17.3 DK)
- Justin Verlander (70 FD) (43.6 DK)
- Chris Archer (34 FD) (17.3 DK)
- Michael Wacha (18 FD) (8.45 DK)
- Felix Hernandez (40 FD) (21.3 DK)
- Mike Soroka (21.9 DK)
Main Slate
Sean Newcomb (7.3k FD) (7.6k DK) (14.9k FD2) @ NYM: I was not on Newcomb at all until how high I saw he was on our Research Station tonight. He comes in as our 3rd highest rated pitcher. He’s actually been very good so far this season and most people are shy to pick on the Mets this year. He’s pitched to a solid 3.82 SIERA which is actually top 12 on this slate today and has a very impressive 28.1% K rate this year. He may even be getting a tad unlucky with a BABIP against of .343. The Mets have been a little better of late against LHP, but still hold a 21% K rate with a below average wRC+ at 84. They are not hitting for much power (.076 ISO) and have a .290 wOBA which is slightly below average too. Newcomb is also getting close to 50% groundballs and getting hit hard just 28% of the time which is below that 30% mark we like to use as a reference. Looking at batted ball data for the Mets vs LHP in their L14, they have a high 53% groundball rate which will only help Newcomb tonight. The Mets will likely have 6 righties in their lineup tonight which Newcomb has help to a slightly lower wOBA so far. He’s been a MUCH better pitcher on the road with a wOBA at .291 compared to .376 at home. He’s striking out more RHH per 9 than lefties and also getting a 7% increase in strikeouts on the road compared to at home. People will be on the other side of this game, while us at the DFS Army will be on Newcomb in GPPs.
Stephen Strasburg (9.7k FD) (10.8k DK) (21.2k FD2) vs PIT: Strasburg has been very solid this season. His trends this year are as follows, 40 fanduel points, then 24, then 58, then 21, then 49, lastly 25. IF this continues, it looks like he will get about 40+ here tonight. We have seen some pitchers be able to shut down this Pirates team of late and he’s a solid price. He’s pitching to a 3.31 SIERA and has a solid 26.9% K rate so far this season. This Pirates team has just 60 at-bats against Strasburg, but are hitting just .183 with a .277 wOBA. He’ll likely see 5 lefties in the lineup here today which is where he struggles more against. He’s lights out to righties though allowing just a .249 wOBA getting 39.7% K rate and not allowing many baserunners (0.87 WHIP). One thing to note, the lefties have not hit him hard at all with just a 21% Hard% rate compared to 36.8% to righties and he is getting more groundballs against lefties. His last start against this PIT team at home was his final start of 2017 and he went 7.2 innings with 8 K’s. I do like him to put up a similar stat line tonight.
Aaron Nola (8.9k FD) (9.9k DK) (19.7k FD2) @ MIA: Our 2nd highest pitcher on the RS tonight is Nola against the pesky Marlins. The one thing I HATE about the Marlins is they can single the crap out of anyone and hit for virtually no power. Nola still has yet to get up to his 26% K rate that he had last year, but he is walking less hitters than last year (by a little). His SIERA is a tad high but he isn’t getting hit hard at all (18.5% Hard%) and is getting more than 50% groundballs. What I do like is his first pitch strike% has gone up nearly 4% from last season and he is working ahead in the count more than he ever was and getting more hitters to swing at pitches outside of the zone. The Marlins will likely roll out just 2 lefties here and Nola has been DOMIANT against righties so far this year. Allowing just a .161 average, .213 wOBA and being able to get 34.5% strikeouts. Let’s hope he can move around Bour and be able to rack up the strikeouts tonight against this pesky Marlins team.
Luis Severino (10.2k FD) (9.2k DK) (17.7k FD2) @ HOU: I think Severino will be quite overlooked here tonight. He’s been very solid so far this season and the first two games in this series have been very low owned. He’s gone 7 innings in each of his last two starts, and at least 6 innings in 4/6 starts this season getting no less than 6 K’s in each one. He has an outstanding 29.2% K rate this season so far which is right up to what he was doing last year. He has a wonderful SIERA at 3.20 and 27.8% Hard% against. He’s been able to get 50% groundballs which will always help especially in his home games. This series has been DOMINATED by pitching in the first two games and I see it happening again here tonight. They do have good success against him in short term, but I think tonight will be different. Houston has a 21% K rate which is just above average and have been hot/cold this season much like other teams. Pitching duels continue here tonight I believe. I will leave him for GPPs only though.
Dallas Keuchel (8.5k FD) (7k DK) (13.9k FD2) vs NYY: Another guy I will only use in GPPs tonight. Like I said, this series has been pitching on pitching on pitching. Keuchel has looked bad this year, but still doesn’t get hit hard (24% hard%) and is still generating 56.6% groundballs. Last year he was getting more grounders, but he’s also throwing his sinker a little less (52% last year, and just 47% this year). He’s throwing his 4SFB more, his change less and cutter a bit more compared to last year. Maybe, for his sake he should go back to throwing more sinkers as he had more success last year throwing it more. But hey, I’m not a coach I’m just a college kid writing pitching articles haha. ANYWAYS, Keuchel has been amazing against the Yankees in his career and the current roster has just a .170 average against him with a .232 wOBA. In his career, he has 9 K/9 against the Yankees, and dominated them in the ALCS last year racking up 10 K’s in Game 1. Last year they didn’t even score a run off him! They only scored by an Ellsbury catcher interference. So, yeah, he dominates the Yankees most of the time. Let’s put in to play that the Yanks have the HIGHEST strikeout rate to LHP in their L14 at 31.6%. We know they hit for power, but with his history against them, I think we can take a shot on him in GPPs.
Dylan Bundy (9.3k FD) (7.8k DK) (15.2k FD2) @ LAA: First off, I think he is too cheap on DK and FD2 tonight. Yes, he faces an Angels team that is MUCH improved from last year, but they still have some holes. When looking at their advanced stats, in their L14 against RHP, they have the lowest wRC+ in the league at 62 and are striking out at a 24% clip. Outside of his last start, Bundy has put up no less than 32 fanduel points on the year with a 50 point game and three 40 point games. He has a wonderful 28.4% K rate and isn’t walking many hitters either. He has one of the better SIERA’s on the slate at 3.27. He’s getting a career-high 15.8% SwStr% on the year and a career LOW 69% contact rate. The way the Angels have been scuffling of late, I think we can take a shot at Bundy in GPPs tonight and he’s a fringe cash play too.
These are my main targets for tonight’s slate. I had some interest in James Paxton, but the way Oakland hits LHP I’m not fully in on him. His heavy favorite helps out and his ability to rack up K’s is good. If you want to take a shot in GPPs on him, I wouldn’t be opposed to it.
Zack Godley is another arm I don’t love and he almost made the list. The Dodgers have been good lately and Godley has been shaky. He has 1 good and 1 bad start against the Dodgers. I have SOME interest in him, but not a ton. Again, if you want to be risky in GPPs I don’t hate it and he should be lower owned.
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
- Aaron Nola (all formats)
- Stephen Strasburg (all formats)
- Sean Newcomb (GPP)
- Dallas Keuchel (GPP, viable SP2 in cash)
- Luis Severino (GPP)
- Dylan Bundy (GPP)
These rankings are very loose here tonight. I think ownership will be fairly spread out. Nola is my top arm though even facing the pesky single hitting happy Marlins. I like all of these guys for GPPs and all have the chance to pitch well tonight. I do think most of these pitchers have some risk though.
