Pitching Breakdown
Saturday, May 19th, 2018
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
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I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that in the write-up!
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Definitions of Stats used in articles via Fangraphs.com
K% (Strikeout Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has struck out a batter, calculated as strikeouts divided by total batters faced.
An average K% is 20%, anything above is considered great or elite
BB% (Walk Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has issued a walk, calculated as walks divided by total batters faced. Average BB% for pitchers is 7.7%, anything lower is considered great or elite
BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The rate at which the pitcher allows a hit when the ball is put in play. A BABIP at or near .300 is considered average. EXAMPLE: if a pitcher has a BABIP of .200 it means he could be getting lucky and balls in play are turned into outs if they have a BABIP of .400 he could be getting unlucky on balls in play and they are turning into hits.
xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): An estimate of a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, and fly balls allowed, assuming league average results on balls in play and home run to fly ball ratio. The Lower the xFIP the better. 3.80 is around average.
SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): An ERA estimator that attempts to more accurately capture a pitcher’s performance based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, home runs, and batted ball data. The lower the better 3.90 is considered average, so anything below that is great to excellent. Anything about is poor.
Hard% (Hard Contact Percentage): Percentage of hard-hit batted balls. Anything below 30% is considered average or better. the lower Hard% the better, meaning pitchers are giving up more soft contact.
wRC+: A rate statistic that credits a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treating them all equally. League average is 100, each point above or below that is one percentage point better or worse than league average. wRC+ is a better representation of offense value.
O-Swing% = Swings at pitches outside the zone/pitches outside the zone
Z-Swing% = Swings at pitches inside the zone/pitches inside the zone
Swing% = Swings/Pitches
O-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches outside the zone / Swings on pitches outside the zone
Z-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches inside the zone / Swings on pitches inside the zone
SwStr% = Swings and misses/Total Pitches
Main Slate
Nick Kingham (8.6k FD) (7.6k DK) vs SD
The first thing that I noticed about Kingham is how much his price has increased and this is just his 3 MLB start. After two very good starts against some tougher opponents, Kingham gets to face the Padres at home this evening. He has been getting a bit lucky with a BABIP under .200 and getting hit very hard (over 40%). Kingham does have a positive matchup versus the Padres who have a 24.3% K rate vs RHP. Strikeouts have not really been an issue for Kingham as he had a 26% rate before getting called up from AAA. Looking back it seems that number from his first two starts will come down a bit as he was only around 20-26% in the minors before this year. Despite all the hard contact and low BABIP, he still is pitching with a 2.17 SIERA over his first two starts. I do think his price is a bit high and I don’t think he’s all that safe for cash, but I do love him for GPPs tonight.
Fernando Romero (6.4k FD) (8.7k DK) vs MIL
Two rookies, two similar results, yet Romero is way cheaper on fanduel than Kingham. Since being called up. Romero has had 38, 55, and 30 fanduel points against some pretty good opponents. He only went 6 innings in 1 of them but was able to get 5+ strikeouts in each start so far this year. Unlike Kingham, Romero has had a strikeout rate more towards 22-26% in the minors and has a solid 29% so far in 3 starts this year. He walks a bit more guys than I like. And it has shown in the minors as well but his strikeout ability is still there. Romero is more of a groundball pitcher, getting 54% groundballs on this season and has always been around 54+% in the minors. The Brewers have a 25% K rate to RHP in their L14 but have been hitting for power. If I was deciding on these first two for tournaments, I wouldn’t mind pairing them on DK, but if using just 1 I would use Romero on fanduel and Kingham on Draftkings.
Sean Newcomb (9.2k FD) (11.5k DK) vs MIA
Wow, his price has JUMPED way up. Almost a $1,000 increase on Fanduel from his last start vs MIA. Well, like I said, he just faced this Marlins team and totally dominated them through 6 innings. Over his last 3 starts he has put up 55, 46, and 46 fanduel points getting no less than 6 strikeouts in those starts. The Marlins are not striking out a ton lately, but I can easily see him getting 6 again this start. He’s pitching with an average 3.83 SIERA with a very good 28.4% K rate this year. Newcomb has not allowed much hard contact this year at just 26% and has been able to get near 50% groundballs. Sean has been very good to both sides of the plate allowing less than a .300 wOBA to lefties and righties. His home/road splits are not the best, but if that is the only bad stat on him, I’m willing to take a chance and ride the hot hand. I do hope his elevated price across the sites will make people pass on him which would make me love him even more for GPPs tonight.
Patrick Corbin (10k FD) (11.3k DK) @ NYM
Picking on the Mets with lefties has worked in the past, and now they see a lefty who has been on fire to start the year. Corbin has been priced at 10k on fanduel for 4 starts and hasn’t been able to top 40 fanduel points which I don’t like. Before that, he had a 55 and 61 point game though. Over their L14 vs LHP, the Mets have the worst wRC+ in the MLB at 36 and also have a 29.2% K rate. Corbin is having his best season in the bigs so far and has a 34.3% K rate with just a 6.4% walk rate. He has also been able to get 48.8% groundballs and pitching to a 2.58 SIERA. I think with Max on this slate, Corbin could be lower owned and he is in an amazing spot here tonight.
Luis Severino (10.5k FD) (12.6k DK) @ KC
Another guy who could be over-looked here tonight is Severino. He has a tougher matchup on the road against the Royals, but Sevvy has looked amazing this year. If we look at the Royals projected lineup, their average DFSA Grade sits at just 49.79 and Severino is a heavy -248 favorite. Mark said he isn’t too worried about the weather in this game, so I think we can roll out Severino tonight. He’s gotten a 30.8% K rate on the season so far, generating 48.6% groundballs with a 2.90 SIERA. He’s got a very high 12.6% SwStr% and getting hitters to swing at pitches outside the zone. Sevvy is giving up just a .227 wOBA on the season and hitters are hitting under .200 against him. He has had just 1 start this season under 40 fanduel points and has topped 67 as his highest. Strikeouts are never an issue with Severino as he has not had less than 6 in a start all season and normally sits around 7+. I think he’s fantastic in GPPs and even cash games tonight.
Max Scherzer (11.6k FD) (14k DK) vs LAD
The second game of the doubleheader for these teams and Max gets the nod for the Nationals. There is not much to say about Max this year. He’s been fantastic and has a career-high 40% K rate getting almost 14 strikeouts per 9 innings. He’s been more of a fly ball pitcher so far this year and that has resulted in him giving up a few home runs. Scherzer is always capable of erasing those HR’s given up with his strikeout upside. We all know the Dodgers can have struggles and Max is elite. I feel comfortable rolling him almost everytime he takes the hill.
James Paxton (9.4k FD) (12.2k DK) vs DET
The biggest favorite on this main slate is Paxton against the lowly Tigers this evening. The Tigers are projected to score just 2.72 runs right now and Paxton is a -268 favorite. He struggled the last start against the Tigers, but I see him turning it around tonight. Before that start, he was amazing in 3 straight games and has recorded 4 straight quality starts. Paxton has the ability to get 10+ strikeouts every time he takes the mound and even though the Tigers do not strike out all that much, I still like his upside tonight in the late night hammer. Paxton is up there with a 32% K rate on the season and has a 3.18 SIERA and career-high 14.1% SwStr%. Like the other higher priced guys, I think Paxton will be ignored tonight, especially being in the late night hammer. I think we can roll out Paxton in all formats this evening.
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
- Max Scherzer (all formats)
- Patrick Corbin (all formats)
- James Paxton (all formats)
- Luis Severino (all formats)
- Sean Newcomb (all formats)
- Fernando Romero (more FD)/ Nick Kingham (more DK) (BOTH GPP)
