Pitching Breakdown
Sunday, May 6th, 2018
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
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I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that in the write-up!
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Definitions of Stats used in articles via Fangraphs.com
K% (Strikeout Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has struck out a batter, calculated as strikeouts divided by total batters faced.
An average K% is 20%, anything above is considered great or elite
BB% (Walk Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has issued a walk, calculated as walks divided by total batters faced. Average BB% for pitchers is 7.7%, anything lower is considered great or elite
BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The rate at which the pitcher allows a hit when the ball is put in play. A BABIP at or near .300 is considered average. EXAMPLE: if a pitcher has a BABIP of .200 it means he could be getting lucky and balls in play are turned into outs if they have a BABIP of .400 he could be getting unlucky on balls in play and they are turning into hits.
xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): An estimate of a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, and fly balls allowed, assuming league average results on balls in play and home run to fly ball ratio. The Lower the xFIP the better. 3.80 is around average.
SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): An ERA estimator that attempts to more accurately capture a pitcher’s performance based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, home runs, and batted ball data. The lower the better 3.90 is considered average, so anything below that is great to excellent. Anything about is poor.
Hard% (Hard Contact Percentage): Percentage of hard-hit batted balls. Anything below 30% is considered average or better. the lower Hard% the better, meaning pitchers are giving up more soft contact.
wRC+: A rate statistic that credits a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treating them all equally. League average is 100, each point above or below that is one percentage point better or worse than league average. wRC+ is a better representation of offense value.
O-Swing% = Swings at pitches outside the zone/pitches outside the zone
Z-Swing% = Swings at pitches inside the zone/pitches inside the zone
Swing% = Swings/Pitches
O-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches outside the zone / Swings on pitches outside the zone
Z-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches inside the zone / Swings on pitches inside the zone
SwStr% = Swings and misses/Total Pitches
Yesterday’s Results: (here I will post fantasy points from previous day’s picks)
Late Slate
Andrew Triggs (7.4k FD) (7.9k DK) (15.2k FD2) vs BAL: The days of picking on Baltimore continue! With Verlander on this slate, Triggs could be overlooked even against Baltimore. He struggled his last start against the Mariners, but before that he’s been solid. He’s only had 2 bad starts this year and has 3 starts with 30 or more fanduel points, with one being 43 points. He’s been able to grab a 21.6% K rate and near 50% groundballs on the year so far. The Orioles have the 5th highest K% to RHP in the L14 at 24.4% and have a below average wRC+. I was surprised to see Triggs as the top pitcher on this slate on our Research Station. Baltimore has a slate low 72.5% contact%, a slate high 13 SwStr% so far this year which will just help Triggs. It is actually surprising to see that he grades out 15 points higher than the 2nd ranked player. I like Triggs in all formats this afternoon and he will likely be lower owned.
Justin Verlander (11k FD) (13.2k DK) (25.4k FD2) @ ARI: The Astros pitching has been simply amazing over the last couple of weeks and Gerrit Cole racked up 16 K’s against them the other night. Verlander has not scored less than 40 fanduel points since his second start of the season and racked up 70 in his last start against the Yankees when he racked up 14 strikeouts. Outside of 2 starts this year, he hasn’t had LESS than 9 strikeouts in a game. He has the highest strikeout rate on this slate at 35.2% and he isn’t really walking anyone either. When you see a guy allowing just a .145 BAA and a WHIP that is at 0.67, yes you read that correctly. No one is really getting on base against him and he’s pitching to a 2.60 SIERA which is top on the slate as well. The Diamondbacks have a 23% K rate in their L14 and Verlander has the chance to grab 10+ K’s again in this one. As I have said before, Verlander is a very high flyball pitcher, but he has been more flyball over his career anyways. Hitters are just not hitting the ball hard against him either (25.2% Hard%). He’s the top option on this late slate today, he’s expensive but WELL worth it.
Shohei Ohtani (8.4k FD) (8.5k DK) @ SEA: I don’t think there are too many viable options on the later slate today, but Ohtani has the ability to get swing and misses. He is just under Verlander in K% in his 4 starts this year at 32%. He has an average SIERA of 3.45 and he’s really just had that really bad start against Boston. He did okay against Houston, but still a hard matchup. He hasn’t pitched since April 24th because they were holding him out due to his ankle. He’s our 2nd highest rated pitcher in the RS for this slate. So far, he’s actually been giving up more power to RHH in his short stint and much less ISO to lefties. He is allowing under a .300 wOBA, but walking too many people for my liking. Seattle has been fairly hot of late, but we do know they can put up goose eggs in any spot. This is their first time seeing Ohtani and I think Ohtani can get the better of them today. I wouldn’t trust him too much in cash though, but he’s a great GPP play.
Felix Hernandez (6.1k FD) (6.9k DK) (13.9k FD2) vs LAA: Hear me out on this one. I don’t like picking on the Angels, BUT Hernandez has actually been very good this year so far and no one is even talking about it. Outside of his horrible outing against the Giants, He has put up no less than 23 fanduel points (which isn’t horrible for how cheap he is ). His last two starts he went 6 innings and got wins in both of those games. He’s been surprising me with his strikeouts this year as he has been able to get at least 5 in his last 4 starts. He has A LOT of history against the Angels as their current roster has 326 at-bats against him. Yes, they have power numbers, but that is a ton of at-bats, they are going to have decent numbers. Overall they have a 26% K rate against him with a .242 average and .328 wOBA. Last year he only faced them once, but in 2016 he faced them 4 times. So, in his last 5 starts against the Angels, he has 35 innings with 33 strikeouts and 15 earned runs. Those are pretty decent numbers and he has been going at least 6 innings against them in each of his last 5 starts. He’s been much better at home this year, which he is tonight, allowing just a .258 wOBA and getting a 26% K rate. He is a high risk, high reward for me this afternoon.
Ross Stripling (5.5k FD) (4k DK) (8k FD2) @ SD (in Mexico though): Not a pretty play here today, but when you are playing against the Padres, you are most likely going to be in play. Over their L14 games against RHP they have the highest K% at 28.9% with a below average wRC+ and low ISO at .114. Mostly coming out of the bullpen this year he has generated a 23% K rate and isn’t getting hit too hard (31.6%). Over his career, he has been more of a groundball pitcher so that will help him in the thinner air they are playing in. He’s been at almost a strikeout per inning this year and the biggest issue with him is the Dodgers don’t let their starters go very long, even if they are doing good (thanks Roberts). He’s min price across the board so you can take a shot on him in as an SP2 if needed, on Fanduel though, I would only use him in large field GPPs and it would be only if you are playing a ton of lineups tonight.
LATE SLATE RANKINGS
- Justin Verlander (all formats, clear cut #1)
- Andrew Triggs (all formats)
- Shohei Ohtani (GPP)
- Felix Hernandez (GPP)
- Ross Stripling (GPP)
