Pitching Breakdown
Wednesday, May 16th, 2018
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!
I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that in the write-up!
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Definitions of Stats used in articles via Fangraphs.com
K% (Strikeout Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has struck out a batter, calculated as strikeouts divided by total batters faced.
An average K% is 20%, anything above is considered great or elite
BB% (Walk Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has issued a walk, calculated as walks divided by total batters faced. Average BB% for pitchers is 7.7%, anything lower is considered great or elite
BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The rate at which the pitcher allows a hit when the ball is put in play. A BABIP at or near .300 is considered average. EXAMPLE: if a pitcher has a BABIP of .200 it means he could be getting lucky and balls in play are turned into outs if they have a BABIP of .400 he could be getting unlucky on balls in play and they are turning into hits.
xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): An estimate of a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, and fly balls allowed, assuming league average results on balls in play and home run to fly ball ratio. The Lower the xFIP the better. 3.80 is around average.
SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): An ERA estimator that attempts to more accurately capture a pitcher’s performance based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, home runs, and batted ball data. The lower the better 3.90 is considered average, so anything below that is great to excellent. Anything about is poor.
Hard% (Hard Contact Percentage): Percentage of hard-hit batted balls. Anything below 30% is considered average or better. the lower Hard% the better, meaning pitchers are giving up more soft contact.
wRC+: A rate statistic that credits a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treating them all equally. League average is 100, each point above or below that is one percentage point better or worse than league average. wRC+ is a better representation of offense value.
O-Swing% = Swings at pitches outside the zone/pitches outside the zone
Z-Swing% = Swings at pitches inside the zone/pitches inside the zone
Swing% = Swings/Pitches
O-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches outside the zone / Swings on pitches outside the zone
Z-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches inside the zone / Swings on pitches inside the zone
SwStr% = Swings and misses/Total Pitches
Yesterday’s Results: (here I will post fantasy points from previous day’s picks)
Early Slate
Nick Pivetta (7.1k FD) (7.2k DK) (14.8k FD2) @ BAL
Pivetta has had an up and down season thus far but he’s an interesting GPP play on this slate today. He scored 42 fanduel points last start out in just 5 innings and has shown up his K upside. I do think he’s a tad cheap given the upside he has. Baltimore has been red-hot over the past couple of weeks, but hot offenses will slow down. I do think the recent success of Baltimore will keep people off him and he makes for a great low-owned tournament play. Pivetta this season is pitching with a 3.53 SIERA and getting hit hard just 24.5% of the time while inducing 43% ground balls. While looking at the Orioles projected lineup, they have just 3 lefties in it, and none besides Chris Davis scare me at all. The more righties the better since Pivetta has a .252 wOBA to RHH which is .113 points lower than what he gives up to lefties. Mr. Pivetta is striking out 32.5% of the righties he faces and under a 1 WHIP to them. He is also giving up just 19% Hard contact to RHH compared to 29% to LHH. Like I said, the more right-handed hitters the better for me on Pivetta today.
Jameson Taillon (8k FD) (7.6k DK) (14.5k FD2) vs CWS
This play all depends on the health of his finger. He was amazing last start in 3 innings before he was forced to leave because of a cut on his finger. If he is good, I do like him for GPPs, mainly because that finger can open up. He looked really good his first 3 starts this year and has regressed a lot since then. Taillon still has a 3.88 SIERA, which is near average and has a 53.5% GB% this year. His strikeout rate of 21.1% is a bit low for me but the White Sox have a 25% K rate to RHP in their L14. He has been very good this year allowing less than a .300 wOBA to both sides of the plate and just has given up 4 HR in 39.2 innings this year. The White Sox have a ton of power in their lineup so I will only use him in larger field GPPs this afternoon.
Trevor Bauer (9.3k FD) (12.8k DK) (24.9k FD2) @ DET
Another starter against the Tigers, let’s hope this one actually does his job. He will likely be the chalk on this early slate and rightfully so. The Tigers lineup has actually been rather hot the last few games and their BvP is pretty good against Bauer. His last start was his worst of the season, but other than that he has not had a game with less than 30 fanduel points. He has topped 40 fanduel points in 5 starts and 50 in two of them. The good thing about this has he faced them already this year and got us 46 fanduel points. Bauer has gone at least 6 innings in 6 of his 8 starts this year so far and averages about 7 K’s per start. This season he has a 26% K rate and is pitching with a 3.84 SIERA which both are great numbers. Detroit usually rolls out mostly RHH in their lineup and he’s actually struggled a bit more with them this year. He does have electric stuff, but I wouldn’t mind a fade off the chalk this afternoon.
J.A. Happ (8.6k FD) (9.3k DK) (17.5k FD2) @ NYM
Happ is coming off two of his worst starts of the year but gets a nice matchup with the Mets here this afternoon. They had a bad looking lineup last night, so I do wonder what they will roll out today. His price has dropped $500 on fanduel and he gets a great opportunity to bounce back here. Over their L14 vs LHP, the Mets have the 2nd worst wRC+ at 37. YES, 37 and they have a K rate of 29%. Adding to those horrible numbers, they are hitting just .158, ISO of .017, and wOBA of .218. All these numbers point towards Happ being able to dominate them today. The Mets have 86 at-bats against Happ and are hitting just .186 with a .251 wOBA and a 27.9% K rate. Happ is having one of his best seasons this year and has generated a 29.2% K rate with a wonderful 3.16 SEIRA and near 50% walk rate. The risk here is the RHH that the Mets can and probably will roll out as Happ has struggled against them. I do think Happ bounces back this afternoon giving the Jays a win today.
Miles Mikolas (9k FD) (11k DK) (21.6k FD2) @ MIN
His price is something I am not a big fan of, but he has been very good this year. Mikolas has gone at least 6 innings in every single start this year except for his first one where he went 5.2 innings. He hasn’t been a big strikeout pitcher but still has gotten at least 4 every start this year. Miles has gotten 40 fanduel points in 4 of his 7 starts and reached 39 in his last start. He’s looked amazing this season back in the MLB and is pitching to a 3.34 SIERA and his groundball rate of 53.5% will help him this afternoon against a Twins team who hits a lot of flyballs. Miles’s walk rate is amazing at 1.6% and he’s allowing less than a baserunner per inning which helps limit the runs he gives up. Minnesota will likely roll out equal lefty and righty hitters, but Mikolas has limited RHH to a .235 wOBA this season thus far. RHH are hitting 60% groundballs while LHH is at just 49% but both are very good numbers. The Twins do worry me here and I think he is rather expensive, but that is what makes me like him more for GPPs.
Early SLATE RANKINGS
1. Trevor Bauer (all formats)
2. J.A. Happ (all formats)
3. Miles Mikolas (lean GPP)
4. Nick Pivetta (GPP because of weather)
5. Jameson Taillon (GPP because of the finger issue)
Good Luck DFSARMY!
