Pitching Breakdown
Wednesday, May 2nd, 2018
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!
I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that in the write-up!
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Definitions of Stats used in articles via Fangraphs.com
K% (Strikeout Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has struck out a batter, calculated as strikeouts divided by total batters faced.
An average K% is 20%, anything above is considered great or elite
BB% (Walk Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has issued a walk, calculated as walks divided by total batters faced. Average BB% for pitchers is 7.7%, anything lower is considered great or elite
BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The rate at which the pitcher allows a hit when the ball is put in play. A BABIP at or near .300 is considered average. EXAMPLE: if a pitcher has a BABIP of .200 it means he could be getting lucky and balls in play are turned into outs if they have a BABIP of .400 he could be getting unlucky on balls in play and they are turning into hits.
xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): An estimate of a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, and fly balls allowed, assuming league average results on balls in play and home run to fly ball ratio. The Lower the xFIP the better. 3.80 is around average.
SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): An ERA estimator that attempts to more accurately capture a pitcher’s performance based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, home runs, and batted ball data. The lower the better 3.90 is considered average, so anything below that is great to excellent. Anything about is poor.
Hard% (Hard Contact Percentage): Percentage of hard-hit batted balls. Anything below 30% is considered average or better. the lower Hard% the better, meaning pitchers are giving up more soft contact.
wRC+: A rate statistic that credits a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treating them all equally. League average is 100, each point above or below that is one percentage point better or worse than league average. wRC+ is a better representation of offense value.
O-Swing% = Swings at pitches outside the zone/pitches outside the zone
Z-Swing% = Swings at pitches inside the zone/pitches inside the zone
Swing% = Swings/Pitches
O-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches outside the zone / Swings on pitches outside the zone
Z-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches inside the zone / Swings on pitches inside the zone
SwStr% = Swings and misses/Total Pitches
Yesterday’s Results: (here I will post fantasy points from previous day’s picks)
- Max Scherzer (46 FD) (26.5 DK)
- Clayton Kershaw (34 FD) (17.3 DK)
- Justin Verlander (70 FD) (43.6 DK)
- Chris Archer (34 FD) (17.3 DK)
- Michael Wacha (18 FD) (8.45 DK)
- Felix Hernandez (40 FD) (21.3 DK)
- Mike Soroka (21.9 DK)
We want to give a BIG congrats to DFS Army member “nadesify” on slaying this $4.44 GPP the other night and taking home $5,000! Big wins like this are happening here at the DFS Army nearly every day!
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LET’S GET DOWN TO THIS EARLY SLATE!
Early Slate
Corey Kluber (11.6k FD) (13.2k DK) vs TEX: He’s the top arm on this early slate and I believe is the best option this afternoon. He is VERY expensive but rightfully so as he comes into this game as a massive -320 favorite. He comes into this game with a 3.12 SIERA, 43% groundball rate, 28.1% K rate, and 5.4% BB rate on the young season. Texas is near the top in K% to RHP in their L14 days at 23.9% and they are a very hot/cold team. This current Rangers team does not have many at-bats against him (40) but are hitting just .225. He’s been better at home this season in the wOBA department and actually been better against left-handed hitters, which Texas is projected to have 6 of them in their starting lineup. I do not need to explain much, he will be the chalk on this early slate and I love him in all formats.
Blake Snell (8.7k FD) (9.8k DK) @ DET: While looking at the advanced stats for the Tigers I did not want to write Snell up. BUT, it is extremely hard to ignore how he has been pitching this year. He has 6 starts this year and outside of his first two (albeit vs NYY and BOS) he has not scored less than 46 fanduel points and 26.8 draftkings points. He has gone 6 innings in two of those and 7 in the other two. He’s also been RACKING up the strikeouts having no less than 6 in his last 4 starts including two 9 K games and a 10 K game. His success this year so far is no fluke either. He has a 3.30 SIERA, getting hit hard at just 28%. He has a 30% K rate this year too and getting a nice 13.8% swinging strike rate. He will most likely see all righties this afternoon with maybe a switch hitter in there. He has been much better against LHH but still allowing under a .300 wOBA to righties this year. Outside of his start against the Yankees, Snell has not given up more than 2 earned runs in any start this season. He’s a solid play I think in all formats this afternoon.
Carlos Martinez (9.5k FD) (11.2k DK) vs CWS: If you don’t want to spend all the way up for Kluber, Martinez is not a bad option either. He’s gone at least 6 innings in all of his starts this year except 1 and only gave up more than 1 ER in his first start. That is expected to change, but for now, he’s been doing great. Command is always his issue and he allows about 4 BB/9 which is not good and actually highest of his career so far. He still has a 25.3% K rate on the season and the White Sox do not scare me that much. They have slightly above average K rate at 22.2% in their L14, which actually goes up to 23% in their L7. He gets hit hard, which is no different than usual but still has a career-high 58% GB rate this year. I would like to see him get more swinging strikes, as that is lower than normal at 9% this year. On this early slate, he can be considered.
Michael Fulmer (8k FD) (7.2k DK) vs TB: Not a sexy pick by no means, but there are only a few I like and he would be the cheapest I will go on both sites. If Fulmer is anything, it is consistent. Four of his five starts have more than 30 fanduel points with the one bad start coming against the Indians. His K% is nothing we love to see but will likely get you around 4-6 of them almost every start. He has a decent SIERA of 4.16 and TB has scored just 6 runs in their last three games and seem to be cooling off a bit. Fulmer won’t get hit overly hard and will usually keep the ball in the yard. He’s been very consistent and after the Rays were RED hot, he gets them at a nice time where they are a bit cooler. A worry I have with him is his struggles to LHH where they will have 4 most likely in their lineup, but none of which scare me THAT much. If he navigates these lefties he should have no problem getting the rest of the Rays lineup who has struggled over their last 3.
Yu Darvish (8.5k FD, all day slate only) (8.4k DK) vs COL: Darvish has been bad this year outside of his two outings against the Brewers, but the Rockies have been struggling to RHP lately. In their L14, they have a 24.6% K rate and the 2nd worst wRC+ at 61. They have not been hitting for much power (.101 ISO) or average (.219). Darvish has still been able to get a 25% K rate and isn’t getting hit all that hard (26.4% Hard contact). The current Rockies roster only has 47 at-bats against him and hitting just .191 with a .249 wOBA and 46.8% K rate. Yes, I know it isn’t many at-bats, but success is still success. I don’t think anyone will be on him because he has been so bad so far this year, but I think he could be worth a flier in GPPs.
Tyler Anderson (5.7k FD, all day slate only) (6.9k DK) @ CHC: Here’s another play no one will be on here today. The Cubs have been struggling recently and have not been good against LHP in their L14 days. They have a 23.1% K rate and 70 wRC+ which is 4th lowest in the MLB, they also have the 3rd lowest Hard% at 27%. Anderson left his last start to dizziness, and it seems like he will be okay to make this start here today. Outside of his start in Arizona and the one he left early, he has been pretty solid. Scoring 29 or more in 4 of his 6 starts and getting 40 twice (fanduel scoring) with one of the 40 point games being against these Cubs in Coors. The wind has not been a big factor in these first two games, and I hope for the low owned GPP purposes it stays that way for these two pitchers. Anderson has a 24.4% K rate but a high 13% walk rate which is not good but he is normally around 7% so I expect that to go down. He’s more of a fly ball pitcher which is not good when the wind is blowing out though. There is a massive risk here, but he’s very cheap and WILL be low owned on DK.
EARLY SLATE RANKINGS
- Corey Kluber (all formats)
- Michael Fulmer (CASH ONLY)
- Carlos Martinez (all formats)
- Blake Snell (lean GPP, but viable in cash)
- Yu Darvish (GPP ONLY)
- Tyler Anderson (GPP ONLY)
Note: I think all these guys have some risk outside of Kluber on this early slate. I DO believe there is upside to be had with these pitchers. Good luck to everyone on this early slate today!
