Hey, hey, hey…..it’s your DFS MLB buddy @Choppodong!! I am a coach and contributor inside DFS Army, where our entire goal is teaching you the fundamentals that will make you a better, more competitive player as quickly as possible.
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Remember, this article is designed to get you pointed in the right direction. It’s not a slate write-up and it’s not a player picks piece. I would rather get you started, then have you interact with us in our VIP slack forums as we banter picks and strategies back and forth. Learning MLB the right way is the fastest way to grow your skill level.
DFS Army is about teaching first. This is a video breakdown covering the important parts of today’s slates….you might even get some tips as I walk through my process. Even I don’t know what I’m going to say… (May 30)
DFS MLB Slate Overview
Main Slate
If you want deeper dives, jump into our VIP content as it drops via the MLB Tab on site.
This slate today rounds into form with some decent pitching holding back the bats a little. There are only a few easily exploitable pitchers. The rest are somewhat competent, but as always, a few rise above everyone and become our options today.
BAL and STL have some weather concerns when it comes to rain, so keep an eye to the skies in those spots. I’m not as worried about bats as I am arms.
The NYY and HOU clubs carry the higher implied team totals today, so they should be popular. However, you won’t likely be able to afford both. Will you make one lineup and have to choose, or will you make a few and mix and match them both?
I am of the latter persuasion, and when I coach inside the army I recommend people play a few lineups. Just last night i made lineups finishing in the 99th, 46th, and 3rd percentiles, respectively. If you make a few lineups, you don’t tend to dwell on the bad ones. You also realize the variance of MLB is real, and everyone suffers from it. By making a few lineups, you tend to stay more positive day after day instead of enduring horribly long losing streaks that seem to stretch for weeks on end.
Back to Basics
It’s always a good idea to know which teams are scoring runs and which are giving them up. I will simply sort by the last 30 days and rank the teams. Here are your top 10 in terms of runs scored and your top 10 highest team ERAs (worst pitching).
The very basic idea is to try and play offensive players from the teams scoring runs and try to attack the pitchers from the teams giving them up. If you see CLE going up against KCR, for example, you should have a pretty good matchup most times.
MLB DFS Pitching
We are always looking for the best combination of price, Vegas, strikeout upside, and matchup (ballparks, weather, etc). We will normally be looking to the top tier on Fanduel and will likely come off that a little so we can afford a decent SP2 on Draftkings. Generic rules like that always have exceptions. Be flexible. KScore is the pitcher’s strikeout potential with the opposing team’s vulnerability to striking out. The DFSA Grade is proprietary to our VIPs but will give you guys something to track in terms of a catch-all safety rating.
Main Slate Pitching
Kershaw day isn’t what it used to be, but his price isn’t what it used to be, either. Solid pick and our DFSA Grades love him, but he’s not the dominant force yet this year we have grown so accustomed to seeing.
McCullers is viable with very strong Vegas support and a hot offense behind him. I wouldn’t normally attack BOS bats, and our DFSA Grade agrees. But, as a gpp pick, I wouldn’t be completely opposed to the choice. I just think there is a little safer out there, and I tend to avoid getting cute with pitching.
Quintana becomes my second choice after Kershaw. Solid across the board, and I don’t mind attacking Mets at all. And, if you follow me, you know I love me some low 8k pitching because it has upside to bring great value and allows a very balanced lineup structure with quality bats, too. I personally find my easiest pathway to 200 on Fanduel with 8k pitching that has a good night and a stack that connects on the slate.
Jack Flaherty is another option with solid strikeout stuff. He has plenty of upside, but PIT is pesky and that aspect of their personality squelches Flaherty’s ceiling a bit in my opinion. Vegas seems to think STL will win the game and I might have a few shares of him when it’s all said and done. But, I’m a little meh on him right now.
Newcomb is another upper 8k pitcher, but I think I’d rather save the $500 or so and simply drop to Quintana tonight. Looking at the numbers, he has a lower KScore and less Vegas support. That’s enough for me to avoid overthinking this one…..especially when it costs me a little more in cap money.
Want more pitching breakdowns? See MDell’s article our members are raving about – Painting the Black
MLB Pitching to Exploit
I’m not going into much detail here. Just rest assured if our DFSA Grades like the aces with high marks, they are going to hate the scrubs with low marks. For one, Alex Cobb is currently sporting a 13.33ish ERA. Now, it won’t stay that way for long, but get on these guys while they are struggling. That’s what DFS is all about. In parentheses are the bats you should be stacking, especially when it’s also a high-powered offense….
MAIN
Cashner (NYY)
Chen (@SDP)
Pomeranz (@HOU)
Odorizzi (CLE)
How about some more winning?! I change these screenshots like I change mistresses. Seriously, why are you just taking the free content? Why aren’t you in here receiving the tools, optimizer, and coaching? These guys are, and these guys are dominating the competition.
DFS MLB Bats and Stack Considerations
I focus on attacking the pitchers above, and I love it when I see Vegas supporting the cause or a high powered offense matching up with these attackable pitchers. I will then focus on the better bats within the offense and key in on our batters grading out over 75 in our Research Station. Bear in mind, I’m listing day-to-day and 10day DL guys, too. Your job is to follow the news, or plug into our Slack Channels and get the details as our slates lock for the day.
Main Offenses to Stack
NYY – Judge, Gardner, Andujar, Bird, Torres, Romine
HOU – Springer, Bregman, Altuve, Gattis, JD Davis, Stassi, Kemp………………Astros hot hitting right now.
STL – Carpenter, Ozuna, Munoz
CLE – Encarnacion, Ramirez, Lindor, Brantley, Alonso
BAL – Trumbo, Jones, Valencia, Sisco
SEA – Segura, Heredia, Gamel
For more on DFS Stacking, see CeeGee’s article – MLB DFS Top Stacks
#DongCall Time!
This section takes on a change. I will simply leave it at my #200on200 guys for the foreseeable future. Posting pictures on the web is becoming more trouble than it’s worth, and it’s not like many people comment out on Twitter anyway. That’s a shame because it was fun.
#200on200 – #DongCall worthy
MAIN – Harper, Villanueva, Cruz, FReyes, Encarnacion, Adams, Bour, Bird
Note ^ the frequent teams and other potential stacks.
Pay attention to the other DFS Army articles like Dong Detector for deeper dives into which bats are in the best spots. Hopefully, your research is started for today. If it feels like it’s pointing in a funky direction, no worries…….I feel just like you right now. Let’s keep our eyes peeled for directions the industry is pointing and re-evaluate as the day goes on. We can zig when they zag or hide in the herd. The choice is ours, and we will be discussing it in our Slack Forums all day long. Join us!
Final MLB DFS Thoughts
For MLB cash games, keep the stacking to a minimum. You can’t afford to grab stack Rockies in Coors and have them fall flat, which they occasionally do. ISO is a great stat to look at with wOBA for hitter-friendly parks. Remember to head over to DFSARMY.com, your one-stop-shop for stats, player recommendations, coaching, winning lineups discussion, and everything DFS related. Use code CHOP to trigger a 10% discount every month as long as you remain a member regardless of any future price increases. You are grandfathered in at your rate permanently!!
Your greatest compliment is helping me spread the word. Retweets and shoutouts are my favorite. Feel free to use #DongCall when you hit yours, too!
