I have been discussing in this article and in our members only Slack about a theory on how to approach MME and GPP’s in general. It’s a method I created to basically diversify your portfolio in a low-risk fashion while boosting your potential ROI by having a dart or two hit the top of the standings.
Rather than trying to identify the top pitcher, hitters, or stacks and going with “heavy exposure” on said targets, we are going to set minimum exposures on specific targets and allow the optimizer to flex its muscles and take a non-biased approach as to who and what are the most optimal options.
This hopefully will allow us to have exposure to specific targets that allow us to have a handful of lineups that are “in the hunt” for the top of the standings if some of the top targets bottom out and sink most of your lineups.
Let’s get to work!
Pitchers for FanDuel (throw a minimum of 3-10% exposure to ensure that you have at least 7-15 out of your 150 lineups with each pitcher)
Kenta Maeda (@SD 3.5 IRT, -197 Fav) *
Charlie Morton (@ARI 3.6 IRT, -125 Fav) *
Eduardo Rodriguez (@TEX 4.1 IRT, -149 Fav)
Jameson Taillon (@MIL 4.3 IRT, -107 Fav)
Tyler Mahle (MIA 4.1 IRT, -122 Fav) – Delay possible, I’ll cap 10% max exposure
Trevor Cahill (BAL 3.9 IRT, -140 Fav) *
Kevin Gausman (@OAK 4.7 IRT, +129 Dog)
After setting those minimums I’ll allow the DS to fill in the rest of my exposure settings for each pitcher listed above with a maximum cap set to 40%.
Pitchers for DraftKings (throw a minimum of 5-10% exposure to ensure that you have at least 1-2 out of your 20 lineups with each pitcher)
Kenta Maeda (@SD 3.5 IRT, -197 Fav) *
Charlie Morton (@ARI 3.6 IRT, -125 Fav) *
Eduardo Rodriguez (@TEX 4.1 IRT, -149 Fav)
Jameson Taillon (@MIL 4.3 IRT, -107 Fav)
Tyler Mahle (MIA 4.1 IRT, -122 Fav) – Delay possible, I’ll cap 10% max exposure
Trevor Cahill (BAL 3.9 IRT, -140 Fav) *
Kevin Gausman (@OAK 4.7 IRT, +129 Dog)
Zack Greinke (HOU 4.0 IRT, +115 Dog) *
Lance Lynn (CWS 4.8 IRT, -106 Fav)
All of the same pitchers on FanDuel apply on DK but the only difference is that I’ll set the minimum exposure to 5% (one lineup out of 20) and let the optimizer work its magic.
Value Hitters FanDuel (throw a minimum 5-10% exposure setting on 7-10 of your favorite guys from this category)
Robbie Grossman
Travis Janikowski
Jurickson Profar
Kurt Suzuki *
Yolmer Sanchez
Matt Kemp *
Justin Bour
Noel Cuevas
Johan Camargo *
Leury Garcia *
Joc Pederson
Welington Castillo *
Alex Verdugo *
Nicky Delmonico *
Matthew Joyce *
Value Hitters for DraftKings (throw a minimum 5-10% exposure setting on a handful of your favorite guys from this category)
Johan Camargo *
Brandon Nimmo
Alex Verdugo *
Welington Castillo
Yolmer Sanchez
Ian Kinsler
Nicky Delmonico
Pat Valaika
The objective of selecting value hitters is to give the optimizer your specific favorite cheap/value options to use when creating lineups. The algorithm then has some extra salary to make sure it can grab the correct studs and stacks.
Stacks for FanDuel (3-7% each = 5-10 lineups, or just use the min stack % feature in the optimizer and keep it between 3-7% and don’t worry about who is actually stacked from the team – just trust the optimizer algorithm to optimally slap it all together). As far as what stack setting, 4-3 etc. that’s all preference and you can run what you’re comfortable with.
ATL – Acuna, Albies, Suzuki, Camargo (this is my favorite BUT I love the entire team tonight pretty much for GPP stacks) *
LAD – Taylor, Verdugo, Pederson, Kemp *
CIN – Winker, Votto, Suarez, Duvall
OAK – Joyce, Lowrie, Davis, Olson
BOS – Betta, Benintendi, Ramirez, Martinez
LAA – Kinsler, Trout, Upton *
Stacks for DraftKings (5-10% each = 1-2 lineups out of 20)
LAD – Taylor, Verdugo, Grandal, Bellinger, Pederson *
BOS – Betts, Benintendi, Ramirez, Martinez, Bogaerts
ATL – Albies, Acuna, Suzuki, Camargo, Freeman *
LAA – Kinsler, Trout, Pujols, Simmons
Beyond the stacks, I actually want to try to run the optimizer without ANY restrictions and just allow the optimizer to select players most optimally without any preset stacks. If you don’t want to do specific stacks just use the min % stack feature and use the min % rule set I listed for FanDuel and DraftKings. I.E. I want the Yankees stacked at 10% minimum, I don’t care about who ends in the stack and just trust the optimizer algorithm is baller enough to fit together the most optimal pieces.
My hope is that the combination of my tweaking and also allowing the optimizer to have the freedom to still flex its algorithm muscle will be a perfect blend of human touch and computing power. The optimizer routinely will stack together 2 or 3 bats from the same team for each lineup just due to our killer projection and value algorithms.
The only way to continue to perfect an MME approach is to continue to fine tune it. This is a trial and in no way shape or form a “perfect approach”. This process will likely be tweaked and manipulated by the time I finish this and likely will take a week or two before I feel comfortable with the actual delivery of this concept. As always, I will continue to share my findings with you in the hopes that we are able to find an edge over our competition!
Fortune favors the bold. Go make your own luck!
<3 Donuts
