Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
Recap
Let’s take a look at how our free squares did last night. Our pitcher free square was Rich Hill who ended up with right around 3.60 DKFP which was good enough for .5x value. Our infielder free square was Ian Desmond who ended up with 0 DKFP. Our outfielder free square was Shin-Soo Choo who ended up with right around 12 DKFP which was good enough for right around 3.2x value.
Today
Let’s take a look at the MLB slate for Wednesday night. The teams with the highest implied run total are the: Baltimore Orioles (5.05), Philadelphia Phillies (4.71), and the Toronto Blue Jays (4.68). The highest priced hitters on the slate are Mookie Betts, Bryce Harper, and Aaron Judge. The highest priced pitchers on the slate are Patrick Corbin, Gio Gonzalez. and Rick Porcello.
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Free Squares
- Julio Teheran P ATL ($8,900)
- Julio Teheran and the Atlanta Braves will take on the Tampa Bay Rays on the road tonight. The Rays have an implied total sitting at right around 4.05 runs and the Braves are currently +101 underdogs. Tropicana Field was the was the 24th best hitters park last season. Teheran had the following numbers on the year last year: .338 wOBA given up to lefties, .319 wOBA given up to righties, 18.6 K%, 8.9 BB%, .281 BABIP, 30.4 Hard%, 4.89 SIERA, and a 4.96 xFIP. The Tampa Bay Rays had the following ranks vs. right-handed pitchers last season: 14th in BB%, 3rd in K%, 18th in OPS, 7th in ISO, 18th in wOBA, and a 10th in wRC+. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 15.916 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 1.79x value. Teheran has had some solid outing this season and some duds. Tonight I think he is going to have one of his solid outings and he is my favorite mid-tier pitcher on the board tonight on Draftkings. Load him up as your SP2 tonight.
- Jonathan Schoop 2B BAL ($3,500)
- Jonathan Schoop and the Baltimore Orioles will take on the Kansas City Royals and pitcher Eric Skoglund tonight at home. The Orioles have an implied total sitting at right around 5.07 runs and they are currently -134 favorites. Camden Yards was the 11th best hitters park last season. Schoop is likely going to be batting 4th in the order tonight. Schoop had the following numbers vs. left-handed hitters last season: 8.4 BB%, 24.1 K%, .955 OPS, .293 ISO, .397 wOBA, 150 wRC+, and a 39.6 Hard%. He will face Eric Skoglund tonight who had the following numbers vs. right-handed hitters this season in limited innings: .356 wOBA, 22.7 K%, 7.2 BB%, .328 BABIP, 3.92 xFIP, 52.9 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 85.4. Schoop crushes lefties and he gets a decent matchup tonight in a friendly hitters park. Load him up as an affordable second baseman with upside tonight.
- Nelson Cruz OF SEA ($4,200)
- Nelson Cruz and the Seattle Mariners will take on the Toronto Blue Jays and pitcher Jaime Garcia on the road tonight. The Mariners have an implied total sitting at right around 4.32 runs and they are currently +112 underdogs. The Rogers Centre was the 21st best hitters park last season. Cruz is likely going to be batting 4th in the order tonight. Cruz had the following numbers vs. left-handed pitchers last season: 20.3 BB%, 20.3 K%, .834 OPS, .198 ISO, .247 BABIP, .357 wOBA, 127 wRC+, and a 42.3 Hard%. He will face Jaime Garcia tonight who had the following numbers vs. right-handed hitters last season: 17.3 K%, 11.0 BB%, .297 BABIP, 4.59 xFIP, and a 31.8 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 90.8. Cruz has monster power and he draws a pretty favorable matchup against Jaime Garcia tonight. Load him up as a power bat in the outfield tonight on Draftkings.
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Ultimate Free Square
We have a shorter slate tonight with some solid tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Nelson Cruz tonight! Good luck Army!
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