Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
Recap
Let’s take a look at how our free squares did last night. Our pitcher free square was P.J. Conlon who ended up with right around 0.65 DKFP which was good enough for .2x value. Our infielder free square was Yulieski Gurriel who ended up with right around 13 DKFP which was good enough for value. Our outfielder free square was Jay Bruce who ended up with right around 23 DKFP which was good enough for right around 6.1 value.
Today
Let’s take a look at the MLB slate for Tuesday night. The teams with the highest implied run total are the: Colorado Rockies (5.37), Texas Rangers (5.29), and the Los Angeles Angels (5.13). The highest priced hitters on the slate are Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, and Nolan Arenado. The highest priced pitchers on the slate are Corey Kluber, Lance McCullers, and James Paxton.
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Free Squares
- Rich Hill P LAD ($7,800)
- Rich Hill and the Los Angeles Dodgers will take on the Arizona Diamondbacks at home tonight. The D’Backs have an implied total sitting at right around 3.34 runs and the Dodgers have an implied total sitting at right around -125 favorites. Dodger Stadium was the 17th best hitters park last season. Rich Hill had the following stats on the season last year: .374 wOBA given up to lefties, .253 wOBA given up to righties, 30.1 K%, 8.9 BB%, .261 BABIP, 30.2 Hard%, 3.61 SIERA, and a 3.88 xFIP. He will face the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight who had the following numbers vs. left-handed pitchers last night: 16th in BB%, 7th in K%, 16th in OPS, 8th in ISO, 20th in wOBA, and 26th in wRC+. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 20.207 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 2.77x value. Hill is dealing with his every annoying blister issue but I think he should be good to go tonight. Last time out Hill got roughed up by this Diamondbacks game, but I think he has a bounce-back game tonight. The Vegas peripherals are solid and so is our projections. There is some risk tonight but I think you can load him up as an SP2 on Draftkings tonight.
- Ian Desmond 1B/OF COL ($3,900)
- Ian Desmond and the Colorado Rockies will take on the Los Angeles Angels and pitcher Andrew Heaney at home tonight. The Rockies have an implied total sitting at right around 5.37 runs and they are currently -120 favorites. Coors Field was the number one hitter’s park last season. Desmond is likely going to be batting 2nd in the order tonight. Desmond had the following numbers vs. left-handed pitchers last season: 5.9 BB%, 22.5 K%, .663 OPS, .109 ISO, .304 BABIP, .284 wOBA, 56 wRC+, and a 25.4 Hard%. He will face Andrew Heaney tonight who had the following numbers vs. right-handed hitters last season in limited innings: .476 wOBA, 29.3 K%, 8.5 BB%, .256 BABIP, 4.27 xFIP, and a 56.9 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 78.907. It’s5.25 the highest implied total on the board in the best hitters park for Desmond tonight. He’ll get a ton of opportunities in the two hole tonight and has an affordable price. Load him up either in the infield or outfield on Draftkings tonight.
- Shin-Soo Choo OF TEX ($3,700)
- Shin-Soo Choo and the Texas Rangers will take on the Detroit Tigers and pitcher Mike Fiers at home tonight. The Rangers have an implied total sitting at right around 5.29 runs and they are currently -160 favorites. Globe Life Ballpark in Arlington was the 2nd best hitters park in the league last season. Choo is likely going to be batting 2nd in the order tonight. Choo had the following numbers vs. right-handed pitchers last season: 11.6 BB%, 22.4 K%, .787 OPS, .190 ISO, .291 ISO, .338 wOBA, 106 wRC+, and a 40.4 Hard%. He will take on Mike Fiers tonight who had the following numbers vs. lefties last season: .347 wOBA, 20.5 K%, 11.2 BB%, 4.82 xFIP, and a 30.9 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 75.72. Choo is in one of the highest scoring games of the night against a pitcher who I do not fear. Load him up as a moderately priced outfielder on Draftkings tonight.
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Ultimate Free Square
We have a huge slate tonight with some solid tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Ian Desmond tonight! Good luck Army!
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