Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
Today
Let’s take a look at the MLB slate for Monday night. The teams with the highest implied run total are the: Texas Rangers (4.80), Cincinnati Reds (4.77), and the New York Mets (4.73). The highest priced hitters on the slate are Bryce Harper, Joey Votto, and Kris Bryant. The highest priced pitchers on the slate are Stephen Strasburg, Kyle Hendricks, and Dallas Keuchel.
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Free Squares
- P.J. Conlon P NYM ($4,000)
- P.J. Conlon and the New York Mets will take on the Cincinnati Reds on the road tonight. The Reds have an implied total sitting at right around 4.77 runs and the Mets are currently -102 favorites. Great American Ballpark was the 13th best hitters park last season. We do not have a ton of big league data on Conlon but here are his numbers in AAA ball this season: 18.8 K%, 6.3 BB%, .370 BABIP, and a 4.97 xFIP. He will face the Cincinnati Reds tonight who had the following ranks vs. left-handed pitchers last season: 20th in BB%, 13th in K%, 18th in OPS, 11th in ISO, 17th in wOBA, and a 20th in wRC+. Taking a look at our Domination Station we have a projection of right around 9.565 DKFP which would be good enough for 2.39x value. Conlon is a bit risky as we never know what we are going to get out a rookie debut, but the price is so low tonight I don’t mind taking a flier on him tonight. He doesn’t need to do a lot to exceed his value and he opens up a ton of salary relief tonight on Draftkings.
- Yulieski Gurriel 1B HOU ($3,200)
- Yulieski Gurriel and the Houston Astros will take on the Oakland Athletics and pitcher Brett Anderson on the road tonight. The Astros have an implied total sitting at right around 4.52 runs and they are currently -132 favorites. The Oakland Coliseum was the 6th best hitters park last season. Gurriel is likely going to be batting 4th in the order tonight. Gurriel had the following numbers vs. left-handed pitchers last season: 6.3 BB%, 13.1 K%, .695 OPS, .143 ISO, .298 wOBA, 86 wRC+, and a 38.3 Hard%. He will face Brett Anderson tonight who had the following numbers vs. against right-handed batters last season: .351 wOBA, 15.4 K%, 8.2 BB%, .331 BABIP, 4.27 xFIP, and a 34.6 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 72.2. Gurriel has a solid price and a solid matchup tonight. He should see a lot of opportunities batting 4th in the order tonight. Load him up as an affordable first base option on Draftkings tonight.
- Jay Bruce OF NYM ($3,800)
- Jay Bruce and the New York Mets will take on the Cincinnati Reds and pitcher Homer Bailey on the road tonight. The Mets have an implied total sitting at right around 4.73 runs and they are currently -102 favorites. Great American Ballpark was the 13th best hitters park last season. Jay Bruce is likely going to be batting 3rd in the order tonight. Bruce has the following stats vs. right-handed pitching last season: 10.0 BB%, 21.1 K%, .883 OPS, .273 ISO, .283 BABIP, and a 42.9 Hard%. He will face Homer Bailey tonight who had the following numbers vs. left-handed pitchers last season: .356 wOBA, 13.9 K%, 13.0 BB%, .310 BABIP, 5.73 xFIP, and a 31.5 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 86. I love targeting Bailey and Bruce gets a favorable matchup against him tonight batting in the 3 hole. Load him up as a moderately priced outfielder with upside tonight on Draftkings.
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Ultimate Free Square
We have a medium sized slate tonight with some solid tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Jay Bruce tonight! Good luck Army!
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