Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
Recap
Let’s take a look at how the free squares did last night. Our pitcher free square was Jake Odorizzi who ended up with right around 17.20 DKFP which was good enough for right around 2.5x value. Our infielder free square was Jace Peterson who ended up with right around 5 DKFP which was good enough for right around 1.8x value. Our outfielder free square was Adam Duvall who ended up with 0 DKFP.
Today
Let’s take a look at the MLB slate for Friday night. The teams with the highest implied run total are the: New York Yankees (6.05), Oakland Athletics (5.28), and the Houston Astros (5.21). The highest priced hitters on the slate are Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, and Aaron Judge. The highest priced pitchers on the slate are Gerrit Cole, J.A. Happ, and Rick Porcello.
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Free Squares
- Jose Berrios P MIN ($9,800)
- Jose Berrios and the Minnesota Twins will take on the Chicago White Sox on the road tonight. The White Sox have an implied total sitting at right around 3.97 runs and the Twins are currently -157 favorites. Guaranteed Rate Field was the 15th best hitters park last season. Berrios had the following stats on the season last year: .341 wOBA given up to lefties, .269 wOBA given up to righties, 22.6 K%, 7.8 BB%, .289 BABIP, 4.29 SIERA, 27.9 Hard%, and a 4.51 xFIP. He will face the Chicago White Sox tonight who had the following ranks against right-handed pitchers last season: 28th in BB%, 6th in K%, 27th in OPS, 22nd in ISO, 27th in wOBA, and 24th in wRC+. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 20.267 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 2.07x value. The White Sox struggle vs. righties and I think Berrios is going to rack up some K’s tonight. Load him up as an SP1 or SP2 on Draftkings tonight.
- Matt Olson 1B OAK ($3,800)
- Matt Olson and the Oakland Athletics will take on the Baltimore Orioles and pitcher Andrew Cashner at home tonight. The Athletics have an implied total sitting at right around 5.30 runs and they are currently -163 favorites. The Oakland Coliseum was the 6th best hitters park last season. Olson is likely going to be batting 5th in the order tonight. Olson had the following numbers vs. right-handed pitchers last season: 10.4 BB%, 28.2 K%, 1.081 OPS, .434 ISO, .260 BABIP, .439 wOBA, 181 wRC+, and a 43.3 Hard%. He will face Andrew Cashner tonight who had the following numbers vs left-handed hitters last year: .311 wOBA given up to lefties, 12.5 K%, 11.9 BB%, .253 BABIP, 5.96 xFIP, and a 28.9 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 91.8. Olson crushing righties and he gets to face Cashner tonight who had an almost 6 xFIP last year. Load him up as your first baseman with upside tonight on Draftkings.
- Brett Gardner OF NYY ($3,500)
- Brett Garnder and the New York Yankees will take on the Cleveland Indians and pitcher Josh Tomlin at home tonight. The Yankees have an implied total sitting at right around 6.05 runs and they are currently -187 favorites. Yankee Stadium was the 14th best hitters park last season. Gardner is likely going to be 1st in the order tonight. Gardner had the following stats on the season last year vs. right-handed pitchers: 11.1 BB%, 18.3 K%, .840 OPS, .191 ISO, .318 BABIP, .359 wOBA, 124 wRC+, and a 31.6 Hard%. He will face Josh Tomlin tonight who had the following numbers vs. left-handed hitters last season: .346 wOBA, 17.5 K%, 2.4 BB%, .342 BABIP, 4.11 xFIP, and a 3.91 xFIP. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 82.2. It’s the highest total on the board and Gardner is going to be batting lead-off in a solid matchup. He should see get plenty of fantasy opportunities at a reasonable price tonight on Draftkings.
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Ultimate Free Square
We have a huge slate tonight with some solid tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Matt Olson tonight! Good luck Army!
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