Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
Recap
Let’s take a look at how the free squares did last night. Our pitcher free square was James Paxton who ended up with right around 44.15 DKFP which was good enough for right around 5.5x value. Our infielder free square was Matt Adams who ended up with right around 25 DKFP which was good enough for right around 7.1x value. Our outfielder free square was Adam Duvall who ended up with right around 0 DKFP.
Today
Let’s take a look at the MLB slate for Thursday night. The teams with the highest implied run total are the: Los Angeles Angels (5.44), Boston Red Sox (5.17), and the Minnesota Twins (4.57). The highest priced hitters on the slate are Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, and J.D. Martinez. The highest priced pitchers on the slate Sean Manaea, David Price, and Reynaldo Lopez.
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Free Squares
- Jake Odorizzi P MIN ($6,800)
- Jake Odorizzi and the Minnesota Twins will take on the Chicago White Sox on the road tonight. The White Sox have an implied total sitting at right around 3.93 runs and the Twins are currently -106 favorites. Guaranteed Rate Field was the 15th best hitters park last season. Odorizzi had the following numbers on the season last year: .293 wOBA given up to lefties, .326 wOBA given up to righties, 21.0 K%, 10.1 BB%, .227 BABIP, 36.8 Hard%, 4.90 SIERA, and a 5.10 xFIP. The White Sox had the following ranks vs. right-handed pitching last season: 28th in BB%, 6th in K%, 27th in OPS, 22nd in ISO, 27th in wOBA, and a 24th in wRC+. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 19.235 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 2.35x value. Pitching is slim to say the least on this short main slate. Odorizzi draws a favorable matchup at a favorable price tonight against the White Sox. I think he is the SP2 option on the slate tonight on Draftkings.
- Jace Peterson 2B/OF BAL ($2,800)
- Jace Peterson and the Baltimore Orioles will take on the Los Angeles Angels and pitcher Jamie Barria on the road tonight. The Orioles have an implied total sitting at right around 3.91 runs and they are currently +157 underdogs. Angles Stadium was the 19th best hitters park last season. Peterson is likely going to be batting 2nd in the order tonight. Peterson had the following numbers vs. right-handed pitching last season: 13.7 BB%, 21.3 K%, .644 OPS, .095 ISO, .286 BABIP, .286 wOBA, 72 wRC+, and a 29.1 Hard%. He will face Jaime Barria tonight who we don’t have a ton of data so we will look at his limited numbers this season: .176 wOBA, 5.3 K%, 5.3 BB%, .177 BABIP, 5.88 xFIP, and an 11.8 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 56.5. It’s a solid matchup for Peterson tonight and he should get plenty of opportunity hitting in the 2nd spot in the order tonight. Load him up as a utility value play on Draftkings tonight.
- Max Kepler OF MIN ($3,600)
- Max Kepler and the Minnesota Twins will take on the Chicago White Sox and pitcher Reynaldo Lopez on the road tonight. The Twins have an implied total sitting at right around 4.52 runs and they are currently -106 favorites. Guaranteed Rate Field was the 15th best hitters park last season. Kepler is likely going to be batting 3rd in the order tonight. Kepler had the following numbers vs. right-handed pitching last season: 9.3 BB%, 17.2 K%, .828 OPS, .212 ISO, .296 BABIP, .350 wOBA, 117 wRC+, and a 36.0 Hard%. He will face Reynaldo Lopez tonight who had the following numbers vs. left-handed hitters last season: .366 wOBA, 22.2 K%, 13.3 BB%, .308 BABIP, 5.38 xFIP, and a 31.6 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 87.3. I am a huge fan of Kepler and I love this matchup vs. a gas can in Reynaldo Lopez. He is priced fairly and he always has solid power upside as an outfielder on Draftkings tonight.
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Ultimate Free Square
We have a small slate tonight with some solid tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Max Kepler tonight! Good luck Army!
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