Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
Recap
Let’s take a look at how our free squares did last night. For our pitcher free square, we had Lance Lynn who ended up with right around 22.60 DKFP which was good enough for right around 5.1x value. For our infielder free square, we had Carlos Correa who ended up with right around 2 DKFP which was good enough for .5x value. For our outfielder free square, we had Rhys Hoskins who ended up with 0 DKFP.
Today
Let’s take a look at the MLB slate for Wednesday night. The teams with the highest implied run total are the: New York Yankees (5.76), Baltimore Orioles (4.98), and the Pittsburgh Pirates (4.87). The highest priced hitters on the slate are Mookie Betts, Aaron Judge, and Manny Machado. The highest priced pitchers on the slate are Jacob deGrom, Kyle Freeland, and Kenta Maeda.
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Free Squares
- Chris Archer P TBR ($6,700)
- Chris Archer and the Tampa Bay Rays will take on the Boston Red Sox at home tonight. The Red Sox have an implied total sitting at right around 3.87 runs and they are currently +109 underdogs. Tropicana Park has been the 28th best hitters park this season. Chris Archer has the following stats on the season so far this season: .370 wOBA given up to lefties, .303 wOBA given up to righties, 22.4 K%, 7.5 BB%, .311 BABIP, 42.6 Hard%, 3.95 SIERA, and a 3.89 xFIP. He will face the Boston Red Sox tonight who have the following ranks vs. right-handed pitchers this season: 21st in BB%, 29th in K%, 1st in OPS, 1st in ISO, 1st in wOBA, and 1st in wRC+. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 17.815 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 2.66x value. The Red Sox are solid vs. righties but I am going to trust the Vegas peripherals which indicate Archer is going to keep them in check tonight. Load him up as an affordable SP2 on Draftkings tonight.
- Robinson Chirinos C TEX (3,000)
- Robinson Chirinos and the Texas Rangers will take on the New York Yankees and pitcher C.C. Sabathia tonight. The Rangers have an implied total sitting at right around 4.29 runs and they are currently +164 underdogs. Globe Life Park in Arlington is the 7th best hitters park this season. He is likely going to be batting 7th in the order tonight. He has the following numbers vs. left-handed pitchers this season: 3.8 BB%, 42.3 K%, .484 OPS, .125 ISO, .231 BABIP, .207 wOBA, 19 wRC+, and a 57.1 Hard%. He will face C.C. Sabathia tonight who has the following numbers vs. right-handed batters this season: .296 wOBA, 15.5 K%, 5.6 BB%, .262 BABIP, 4.64 xFIP, and a 31.5 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 73.242. Chirinos has been crushing the ball hard but without the results yet this season. I think it’s only a matter of time where he starts to put it all together and he has a really affordable price on Draftkings tonight.
- Aaron Altherr OF PHI ($3,400)
- Aaron Altherr and the Philadelphia Phillies will take on the Atlanta Braves and pitcher Luiz Gohara at home tonight. The Phillies have an implied total sitting at right around 4.40 runs and they are currently -117 favorites. Citizen’s Bank Park has been the 15th best hitters park this season. He is likely going to be batting 2nd in the order tonight. Altherr has the following stats on the season vs. left-handed pitchers this season: 22.2 BB%, 22.2 K%, .843 OPS, .296 ISO, .167 BABIP, .361 wOBA, 129 wRC+, and a 45.0 Hard%. He will face Luiz Gohara tonight who has the following numbers vs. right-handed hitters in limited innings this season: .181 wOBA, 15.0 K%, 5.0 BB%, .067 BABIP, 6.01 xFIP, and a 37.5 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 77.242. Altherr has been crushing lefties this season and draws a great matchup at a great price tonight on Draftkings.
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Ultimate Free Square
We have a decent slate tonight with some solid tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Aaron Altherr tonight! Good luck Army!
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