Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
Recap
Let’s take a look at how the free squares did last night. Our pitcher free square was Michael Wacha who ended up with right around 8.45 DKFP which was good enough for right around 1.1x value. Our infielder free square was Justin Smoak who ended up with right around 11 DKFP which was good enough for right around 3.2x value. Our outfielder free square was Gregor Blanco who ended up with right around 7 DKFP which was good enough for right 3.2x value.
Today
Let’s take a look at the MLB slate for Wednesday night. The teams with the highest implied run total are the: Washington Nationals (4.78), Seattle Mariners (4.58), and the Cincinnati Reds (4.57). The highest priced hitters on the slate are Mike Trout, Aaron Judge, and Rhys Hoskins. The highest priced pitchers on the slate are Jacob DeGrom, Stephen Strasburg, and Aaron Nola.
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Free Squares
- James Paxton P SEA ($8,000)
- James Paxton and the Seattle Mariners will take on the Oakland Athletics at home tonight. The Athletics have an implied total sitting at right around 3.46 runs and they are currently -167 favorites. SafeCo Field was the 23rd best hitters park last season. Paxton had the following numbers on the season last year: .210 wOBA given up to lefties, .273 wOBA given up to righties, 28.3 K%, 6.7 BB%, .300 BABIP, 30.3 Hard%, 3.45 SIERA, and a 3.25 xFIP. He will face the Athletics who have the following ranks vs. left-handed pitchers last season: 7th in BB%, 6th in K%, 25th in OPS, 22nd in ISO, 25th in wOBA, and 21st in wRC+. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 21.968 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 2.75x value. I think Paxton is underpriced tonight due to his strikeout potential. Load him up as either an SP1 or SP2 on Draftkings tonight.
- Matt Adams 1B/OF WSH ($3,500)
- Matt Adams and the Washington Nationals will take on the Pittsburgh Pirates and pitcher Ivan Nova at home tonight. The Nationals have an implied total sitting at right around 4.78 runs and they are currently -195 favorites. Nationals Park was the 10th best hitters park last season. Adams is likely going to be batting 3rd in the order tonight. Adams had the following stats on the season last year vs. right-handed pitchers 6.9 BB%, 23.7 K%, .896 OPS, .259 ISO, .337 BABIP, .367 wOBA, 126 wRC+, and a 39.1 Hard%. He will face Ivan Nova tonight who had the following numbers vs. left-handed batters last season: .361 wOBA, 12.4 K%, 4.4 BB%, .316 BABIP, 4.71 xFIP, and a 35.2 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 85.8. Matt Adams is a classic extreme splits guy. He absolutely crushes righties and he gets a good matchup against Nova tonight where he will most likely bat 3rd in the order. He has a solid price and nice positional flexibility on Draftkings tonight.
- Adam Duvall OF CIN ($3,700)
- Adam Duvall and the Cincinnati Reds will take on the Milwaukee Brewers and pitcher Wade Miley at home tonight. The Reds have an implied total sitting at right around 4.68 runs and they are currently +102 underdogs. Great American Ballpark was the 13th best hitters park last season. Duvall is likely going to be batting 4th in the order tonight. Duvall had the following numbers vs. left-handed pitching last season: 8.8 BB%, 22.0 K%, .924 OPS, .293 ISO, .299 BABIP, .382 wOBA, 134 wRC+, and a 32.7 Hard%. He gets to face Wade Miley tonight who had the following numbers vs. right-handed batters last season: .374 wOBA, 19.2 K%, 12.3 BB%, .339 BABIP, 4.74 xFIP, and a 32.5 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 91.2. I absolutely love this spot for Duvall tonight and the Domination Station agrees with me. Load up Duvall as a moderately priced outfielder with a ton of upside tonight.
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Ultimate Free Square
We have a decent slate tonight with some solid tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Adam Duvall tonight! Good luck Army!
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