Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
Recap
Let’s take a look at how the free squares did last night. For our pitcher free square, we had Chris Archer who ended up with right around 24.80 DKFP which was good enough for right around 3.6x value. For our infielder free square, we had Jurickson Profar who ended up with 0 DKFP. For our outfielder free square, we had Shin-Soo Choo who ended up with 10 DKFP which was good enough for right around 2.8x value.
Today
Let’s take a look at the MLB slate for Friday night. The teams with the highest implied run total are the: Boston Red Sox (5.28), Atlanta Braves (5.18), and the Chicago Cubs (5.07). The highest priced hitters on the slate are Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, and Kris Bryant. The highest priced pitchers on the slate are Max Scherzer, Charlie Morton, and Sean Newcomb.
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Free Squares
- Felix Hernandez P SEA ($7,100)
- Felix Hernandez and the Seattle Mariners will take on the Detroit Tigers at home tonight. The Tigers Mariners have an implied total sitting at right around 3.37 runs and they are currently -152 favorites. Safeco Field has been the 21st best hitters park this season. Felix Hernandez has the following stats on the season so far this year: .342 wOBA given up to lefties, .367 wOBA given up to righties, 20.6 K%, 10.1 BB%, .279 BABIP, 35.9 Hard%, 4.59 SIERA, and a 4.77 xFIP. He faces the Detroit Tigers tonight who have the following ranks vs. right-handed pitchers this season: 30th in BB%, 22nd in K%, 20th in OPS, 19th in ISO, 20th in wOBA, and 21st in wRC+. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 18.656 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 2.63x value. Felix gets to face a bottom 10 offense tonight in the Tigers at a relatively affordable price. A lot of high priced studs on the board tonight which makes me love Felix as an SP2 option.
- Brian Dozier 2B MIN ($4,200)
- Brian Dozier and the Minnesota Twins will take on the Milwaukee Brewers and pitcher Brent Suter at home tonight. The Twins have an implied total sitting at right around 4.91 runs and they are currently -146 favorites. Target Field has been the 22nd best hitters park this season. Dozier is likely going be batting 2nd in the order tonight. Dozier has the following numbers vs. left-handed pitchers this season: 13.3 BB%, 6.7 K%, .828 OPS, .192 ISO, .261 BABIP, .361 wOBA, 126 wRC+, and a 33.3 Hard%. He will face Brent Suter tonight who has the following numbers vs. right-handed batters this season: .368 wOBA, 18.7 K%, 4.3 BB%, .350 BABIP, 3.87 xFIP, and a 35.9 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 84.201. Dozier crushes lefties and even though Suter’s numbers aren’t terrible this year I don’t think that will last. He is a bit higher price but with a high implied total Dozier provides solid upside tonight on Draftkings.
- Andrew McCutchen OF SFG ($3,500)
- Andrew McCutchen and the San Francisco Giants will take on the Colorado Rockies and pitcher Kyle Freeland at home tonight. The Giants have an implied total sitting at right around 4.35 runs and they are currently -114 favorites. AT&T Park has been the 4th best hitters park this season. McCutchen is likely going to be batting 2nd in the order tonight. McCutchen has the following numbers vs. left-handed pitchers this season: 11.9 BB%, 22.4 K%, .742 OPS, .190 ISO, .268 BABIP, .326 wOBA, 109 wRC+, and a 46.5 Hard%. He will face Kyle Freeland tonight who has the following numbers vs. right-handed batters this season: .304 wOBA, 15.5 K%, 8.1 BB%, .266 BABIP, 4.79 xFIP, and a 27.4 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 75.199. McCuthen has been solid all season and I love the price for him tonight on Draftkings.
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Ultimate Free Square
We have a huge slate tonight with some solid tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Brain Dozier tonight! Good luck Army!
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