Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
Recap
Let’s take a look at how the free squares did last night. For our pitcher free square, we had Garett Richards who ended up with right around 20.75 DKFP which was good enough for right around 3.6x value. For our infielder free square, we had Justin Bour who ended up with 20 DKFP which was good enough for right around 6.7x value. For our outfielder free square, we had Enrique Hernandez who was not in the lineup.
Today
Let’s take a look at the MLB slate for Thursday night. The teams with the highest implied run total are the: Boston Red Sox (5.29), Toronto Blue Jays (4.86), and the Oakland Athletics (4.64). The highest priced hitters on the slate are Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, and Manny Machado. The highest priced pitchers on the slate are Cole Hamels, Tyler Skaggs, and David Price.
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Free Squares
- Chris Archer P TBR ($6,900)
- Chris Archer and the Tampa Bay Rays will take on the Los Angeles Angels on the road tonight. The Angels have an implied total sitting at right around 4.17 runs and the Rays are currently +147 underdogs. Angels Stadium has been the 14th best hitters park this season. Archer has the following stats on the season so far: .384 wOBA given up to lefties, .316 wOBA given up to righties, 22.8 K%, 6.6 BB%, .331 BABIP, 41.9 Hard%, 3.88 SIERA, and a 3.85 xFIP. He will face the Los Angeles Angels who have the following ranks vs. right-handed pitchers: 23rd in BB%, 25th in K%, 6th in OPS, 7th in ISO, 7th in wOBA, and 3rd in wRC+. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 16.275 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 2.36x value. The Angels have decent numbers vs. righties but the price is too low for Archer for me tonight. At $6,900 he doesn’t have to go crazy and I think he can exceed his value as a nice SP2 option on Draftkings tonight.
- Jurickson Profar SS TEX ($3,300)
- Jurickson Profar and the Texas Rangers will take on the Chicago White Sox and pitcher James Shields on the road tonight. The Rangers have an implied total sitting at right around 4.62 runs and they are currently -115 favorites. Guaranteed Rate Field has been the 18th best hitters park this season. Profar is likely going to be batting 3rd in the order tonight. Profar has the following numbers vs. right-handed pitchers this season: 8.3 BB%, 19.3 K%, .550 OPS, .101 ISO, .231 BABIP, .245 wOBA, 45 wRC+, and a 24.1 Hard%. He will face James Shields tonight who has the following numbers vs. left-handed batters: .291 wOBA, 15.0 K%, 16.0 BB%, .224 BABIP, 5.77 xFIP, and a 37.5 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 70.869. Profar has struggled vs. righties so far this year but I expect his numbers to normalize and he gets a great matchup against the gas-can that is James Shields. Load him up as an affordable short-stop on Draftkings tonight.
- Shin-Soo Choo OF TEX ($3,600)
- Mini-stack in the free squares article tonight. Shin-Soo Choo and the Texas Rangers will take on the Chicago White Sox and pitcher James Shields on the road tonight. The Rangers have an implied total sitting at right around 4.62 runs and they are currently -115 favorites. Guaranteed Rate Field has been the 18th best hitters park this season. Choo is likely going to be batting 2nd in the order tonight. Choo has the following numbers vs. right-handed pitchers this season: 11.1 BB%, 18.5 K%, .796 OPS, .169 ISO, .303 BABIP, .345 wOBA, 112 wRC+, and a 45.7 Hard%. He will face James Shields tonight who has the following numbers vs. left-handed batters: .291 wOBA, 15.0 K%, 16.0 BB%, .224 BABIP, 5.77 xFIP, and a 37.5 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 81.2. As you can tell I love picking on James Shields. Like Profar, I love the price for Choo tonight and think he makes a great affordable option in the outfield tonight.
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Ultimate Free Square
We have a medium slate tonight with some solid tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Shin-Soo Choo tonight! Good luck Army!
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