Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
Today
Let’s take a look at the MLB slate for Wednesday night. The teams with the highest implied run total are the: Boston Red Sox (5.07), Chicago Cubs (4.82), and the Atlanta Braves (4.68). The highest priced hitters on the slate are Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Ozzie Albies. The highest priced pitchers on the slate are Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, and Justin Verlander.
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Free Squares
- Garrett Richards P LAA ($5,800)
- Garrett Richards and the Los Angeles Angels will take on the Houston Astros on the road at home tonight. The Astros have an implied total sitting at right around 3.95 runs and the Angels are currently +117 favorites. Angels Stadium has been the 14th best hitters park this season. Garrett Richards has the following stats on the season so far this year: .273 wOBA given up to lefties, .332 wOBA given up to righties, 28.8 K%, 11.8 BB%, .284 BABIP, 32.0 Hard%, 3.65 SIERA, and a 3.34 xFIP. He will face the Houston Astros tonight who have the following ranks vs. right-handed pitchers: 5th in BB%, 20th in K%, 16th in OPS, 24th in ISO, 12th in wOBA, and an 11th in wRC+. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 15.813 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 2.73x value. Richards is simply too cheap for me tonight, and with all the high-end pitching options I think he makes a great option as an SP2 tonight on Draftkings.
- Justin Bour 1B MIA ($3,000)
- Justin Bour and the Miami Marlins will take on the Los Angeles Dodgers and pitcher Walker Buehler tonight at home. The Marlins have an implied total sitting at right around 3.15 runs and they are currently +140 underdogs. Marlins Park has been the 30th best hitters park this season. Bour is likely going to be batting in the 4th in the order tonight. Bour has the following numbers vs. right-handed pitchers on the season: 16.8 BB%, 18.9 K%, .925 OPS, .316 ISO, .208 BABIP, .391 wOBA, 152 wRC+, and a 32.8 Hard%. He will face Walker Buehler tonight who has the following numbers vs. left-handed batters this season: .232 wOBA, 29.3 K%, 7.3 BB%, .308 BABIP, 2.65 xFIP, and a 30.8 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 59.4. I actually like Buehler tonight, but really like Bour as a one-off tonight on Draftkings. He has solid power numbers and his price is cheap enough to make him an enticing play for me tonight.
- Enrique Hernandez 2B/OF LAD ($3,100)
- Enrique Hernandez and the Los Angeles Dodgers will take on the Miami Marlins and pitcher Caleb Smith on the road tonight. The Dodgers have an implied total sitting at right around 3.85 runs and they are currently -152 favorites tonight. Marlins Park is the 30th best hitters park this season. Hernandez is likely going to be batting 2nd in the order tonight. Hernandez has the following numbers vs. left-handed pitchers last season: 8.0 BB%, 32.0 K%, .769 OPS, .267 ISO, .315 wOBA, 101 wRC+, and a 23.3 Hard%. He will face Caleb Smith tonight who has the following numbers vs. right-handed batters this season: .327 wOBA, 28.9 K%, 7.7 BB%, .406 BABIP, 3.01 xFIP, and a 42.4 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 66.6 Similar situation as Bour as I like Smith but think Enrique makes a great one-off play tonight batting in the 2nd hole. He has solid numbers vs. lefties and I love his price tonight on Draftkings.
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Ultimate Free Square
We have a smaller slate tonight with some solid tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Garrett Richards tonight! Good luck Army!
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