Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
Today
Let’s take a look at the MLB slate for Monday night. The teams with the highest implied run total are the: Cleveland Indians (5.10), Boston Red Sox (4.95), and the Minnesota Twins (4.85). The highest priced hitters on the slate are Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, and Francisco Lindor. The highest priced pitchers on the slate are Patrick Corbin, Carlos Carrasco, and Rick Porcello.
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Free Squares
- Tyler Anderson P COL ($7,100)
- Tyler Anderson and the Colorado Rockies will take on the San Diego Padres on the road tonight. The Padres have an implied total sitting at right around 3.46 runs and the Rockies are currently -108 favorites. Petco Park has been the 10th best hitters park last season. Tyler Anderson has the following stats on the season this year: .386 wOBA given up to lefties, .320 wOBA given up to righties, 24.8 K%, 10.6 BB%, .278 BABIP, 34.6 Hard%, 4.26 SIERA, and a 4.36 xFIP. He will face the San Diego Padres tonight who have the following ranks vs. left-handed pitchers this season: 23rd in BB%, 5th in K%, 23rd in OPS, 9th in ISO, 23rd in wOBA, and 22nd in wRC+. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 16.818 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 2.24x value. This is a juicy matchup tonight for Anderson at an affordable price. Load him up as your SP2 tonight on Draftkings.
- Matt Olson 1B OAK ($3,500)
- Matt Olson and the Oakland Athletics will take on the Boston Red Sox and pitcher Rick Porcello on the road tonight. The Athletics have an implied total sitting at right around 4.05 runs and they are currently +140 underdogs. Fenway Park has been the 2nd best hitters park this season. Olson is likely going to be batting 5th in the order tonight. Olson has the following numbers vs. right-handed pitchers this season: 11.6 BB%, 34.8 K%, .739 OPS, .173 ISO, .323 wOBA, 102 wRC+, and a 49.2 Hard%. He will face Rick Porcello tonight who has the following numbers vs. left-handed batters this season: .251 wOBA, 27.7 K%, 4.3 BB%, .258 BABIP, 3.33 xFIP, and a 35.9 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 92.879. Olson is a righty masher and even though the team doesn’t have the highest implied total I like his price and upside tonight on Draftkings.
- Nelson Cruz OF SEA ($4,200)
- Nelson Cruz and the Seattle Mariners will take on the Minnesota Twins and pitcher Jake Odorizzi tonight on the road. The Mariners have an implied total sitting at right around 4.65 runs and they are currently +104 underdogs tonight. Target Field has been the 18th best hitters park this season. Cruz is likely going to be batting 3rd in the order tonight. Curz has the following stats vs. right-handed pitchers this season: 3.4 BB%, 19.5 K%, .763 OPS, .232 ISO, .250 BABIP, .327 wOBA, 107 wRC+, and a 40.0 Hard%. He will face Jake Odorizzi tonight who has the following numbers vs. right-handed batters this season: .326 wOBA, 24.2 K%, 12.1 BB%, .283 BABIP, 4.84 xFIP, and a 31.8 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 83.515. I think Cruz has been underpriced this year with his power numbers. He should get a lot of fantasy opportunities in a fairly high scoring game tonight. Load him up as a power bat int he outfield tonight.
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Ultimate Free Square
We have a smaller slate tonight with some solid tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Matt Olson tonight! Good luck Army!
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