Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
Recap
Let’s take a look at how our free squares did last night. Our pitcher free square was Julio Teheran who ended up with right around 29.10 DKFP which was good enough for 3.3x value. Our infielder free square was Jonathan Schoop who ended up with 12 DKFP which was good enough for right around 3.4x value. Our outfielder free square was Nelson Cruz who ended up with right around 2 DKFP which was good enough for right around .5x value.
Today
Let’s take a look at the MLB slate for Thursday night. The teams with the highest implied run total are the: Colorado Rockies (6.23), Milwaukee Brewers (5.27), and the Baltimore Orioles (5.25). The highest priced hitters on the slate are Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, and Bryce Harper. The highest priced pitchers are J.A. Happ, Walker Buehler, and Miles Mikolas.
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Free Squares
- Garrett Richards P LAA ($8,900)
- Garrett Richards and the Los Angeles Angels will take on the Minnesota Twins at home tonight. The Twins have an implied total sitting at right around 3.44 runs and the Angels are currently -143 favorites. Angels Stadium was the 19th best hitters park last season. Garrett Richards has the following stats on the season this year: .295 wOBA given up to lefties, .310 wOBA given up to righties, 30.0 K%, 13.3 BB%, .288 BABIP, 31.0 Hard%, 3.79 SIERA, and a 3.41 xFIP. The Twins had the following numbers vs. right-handed pitchers last season: 4th in BB%, 16th in K%, 6th in OPS, 13th in ISO, 5th in wOBA, and 6th in wRC+. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 18.145 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 2.04x value. The Twins were solid against righties last year but they have had their struggles this year. Richards has had some monster outings this season and the Vegas numbers seem to point to a favorable matchup tonight. I like him at either SP1 or SP2 on Draftkings tonight.
- Manny Pina C MIL ($3,100)
- Manny Pina and the Milwaukee Brewers will take on the Colorado Rockies and pitcher German Marquez on the road tonight. The Brewers have an implied total sitting at right around 5.27 runs and they are currently +132 underdogs. Coors Field was the number one hitter’s park last season. Pina is likely going to be batting 6th in the order tonight. Pina had the following numbers vs. right-handed pitchers last season: 6.2 BB%, 21.4 K%, .769 OPS, .169 ISO, .322 BABIP, .328 wOBA, 98 wRC+, and a 30.4 Hard%. He will face German Marquez tonight who had the following numbers vs. right-handed hitters last season: .355 wOBA 23.7 K%, 6.2 BB%, .299 BABIP, 4.14 xFIP, and a 37.9 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 79.6. It’s the highest total on the board tonight and Pina is only $3,100 batting in the heart of the Brewers lineup tonight. I like Pina as an affordable catcher on Draftkings tonight.
- Carlos Gonzalez OF COL ($4,000)
- Carlos Gonzalez and the Colorado Rockies will take on the Milwaukee Brewers and pitcher Jhoulys Chacin tonight at home. The Rockies have an implied total sitting at right around 6.23 runs and they are currently -143 favorites. Coors Field was the number one hitter’s park last season. CarGo is likely going to be batting 4th in the order tonight. CarGo had the following numbers vs. right-handed pitchers last season: 12.8 BB%, 19.4 K%, .836 OPS, .180 ISO, .356 wOBA, 103 wRC+, and a 31.0 Hard%. He will face Jhoulys Chacin who had the following numbers vs. left-handed hitters last season: .418 wOBA, 3.6 K%, 14.5 BB%, .328 BABIP, 7.82 xFIP, and a 40.9 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 80.4. This is a dream matchup for CarGo and the Rockies tonight. Highest implied total on the board by quite a bit and an affordable price for him tonight on Draftkings.
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Ultimate Free Square
We have a medium sized slate tonight with some solid tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Carlos Gonzalez tonight! Good luck Army!
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