Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
Recap
Let’s take a look at how the free squares did last night. Our pitcher free square was Jon Lester who ended up with right around 17.35 DKFP which was good enough for right around 2.2x value. Our infielder free square was Justin Smoak who ended up with right around 18 DKFP which was good enough for right around 5.1x value. Our outfielder free square was Andrew McCutchen who ended up with right around 17 DKFP which was good enough for right 4.9x value.
Today
Let’s take a look at the MLB slate for Tuesday night. The teams with the highest implied run total are the: Chicago Cubs (6.12), St. Louis Cardinals (5.35), and the Los Angeles Angels (5.12). The highest priced hitters on the slate are Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, and Bryce Harper. The highest priced pitchers on the slate are Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, and Clayton Kershaw.
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Free Squares
- Michael Wacha P STL ($8,000)
- Michael Wacha and the St. Louis Cardinals will take on the Chicago White Sox at home tonight. The White Sox have an implied total sitting at right around 3.65 runs and they are currently -214 favorites. Busch Stadium has been the 23rd hitter’s park this season. Wacha has the following numbers on the season thus far: .238 wOBA given up to lefties, .375 wOBA given up to righties, 19.7 K%, 10.3 BB%, .291 BABIP, 39.5 Hard%, 4.56 SIERA, and a 4.07 xFIP. He will take on the White Sox who have the following ranks against right-handed pitching this season: 25th in BB%, 14th in K%, 9th in OPS, 12th in ISO, 8th in wOBA, and a 10th in wRC+. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 18.824 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 2.35x value. Wacha is a huge favorite tonight against an average White Sox team. This is a huge pitching slate tonight and I love fitting in Wacha as an SP2 guy tonight on Draftkings.
- Justin Smoak 1B TOR ($3,400)
- Justin Smoak and the Toronto Blue Jays will take on the Minnesota Twins and pitcher Kyle Gibson on the road tonight. The Blue Jays have an implied total sitting at right around 4.24 runs and they are currently +117 underdogs. Target Field has been the 20th best hitters park this season. Smoak is likely going to be batting 3rd in the order tonight. Smoak has the following numbers vs. right-handed pitchers this season: 15.8 BB%, 25.0 K%, .719 OPS, .226 ISO, .195 BABIP, .314 wOBA, 94 wRC+, and a 36.4 Hard%. He will face Kyle Gibson who has the following numbers vs. lefties this season: .225 wOBA, 20.5 K%, 6.8 BB%, .250 BABIP, 4.15 xFIP, and a 34.4 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 78.1. Get used to seeing Smoak on the free squares as long as Draftkings is going to have him priced in this range. We love his upside and love that he bats in the heart of the order. The decent matchup tonight makes him a nice one-off in the outfield on Draftkings tonight.
- Gregor Blanco OF SFG ($2,200)
- Gregor Blanco and the San Francisco Giants will take on the San Diego Padres and pitcher Tyson Ross at home tonight. The Giants have an implied total sitting at right around 3.94 runs and they are currently -130 favorites. AT&T Park has been the number one hitters park this season. Blanco is likely going to be batting lead-off in the order tonight. Blanco has the following numbers against right-handed pitching on the season: 4.3 BB%, 13.0 K%, .690 OPS, .068 ISO, .342 BABIP, .305 wOBA, 95 wRC+, and a 23.7 Hard%. He will face Tyson Ross who has had the following numbers vs. left-handed batters this season: .366 wOBA, 18.6 K%, 8.5 BB%, .390 BABIP, 3.92 xFIP, and a 38.1 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 62.1. We are going to need to find some salary cap relief tonight and I like plugging in Blanco at a rock bottom price and batting lead-off tonight. He makes a great value play in the outfield tonight on Draftkings.
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Ultimate Free Square
We have a huge slate tonight with some solid tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Justin Smoak tonight! Good luck Army!
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