Good morning everyone. I woke up extra early to bring you the top pitching options on this afternoon’s 12 game main slate. Both Fanduel and Draftkings have the same games for the Sunday main slate for once, so that helps to make things easier for us. On any slate, I usually start by looking for the safest cash game options first.
The Don’t Overthink It Play-of-the-Day:
Gerritt Cole (10400 FD, 12600 DK) vs. Oakland
On Fanduel, just lock him into cash games and save yourself some time. I don’t see any reason not to use Cole today. He appears to have finally figured out how to pitch (now that he left the Pirates.) and looks like one of the best pitchers in the league right now (I say that through clenched teeth). He is the largest favorite on the slate today, and while people keep waiting for him to come back to Earth, we have to accept that this just might who he is this year – a true ace.
Through the first 5 games his floor has been 43 FD points and he has hit 61 twice. We saw what McCullers did to Oakland last night and we have also seen the Houston offense finally get going. I think we see Cole go 7+ innings, and strike out 8-10 A’s on his way to a QS and a win. Sign me up. His price on DK is a bit steep, but there are some value options at SP2 you could use to make him fit.
Okay, time for some more coffee. By the way, if you haven’t checked out the Research Station yet, it’s loaded with advanced statistics that can help you break that tie between your two favorite pitchers or favorite hitter stack.
The other Really Good and Pretty Safe Options
J.A. Happ (8800 FD, 9200 DK) vs. Texas and Rick Porcello (9200 FD and 10200 DK) vs. Tampa
I’ll try not to write 500 words for every pitcher, I promise. These are not two pitchers who many would have pitched as well as they have this season. And they are not sexy plays by any means, but it’s hard to argue with the results.
Happ has been downright excellent in his first five starts. After only going 4 and 2/3 innings in the opener against the Yankees, he has struck out 8-10 hitters in his next four starts. He doesn’t overpower hitters, but his excellent control and plus off-speed stuff keeps hitters off balance. We know the Rangers are a team to attack for strikeouts, and Happ comes in as a 210 favorite right behind Cole today. I could see the argument for using him in cash games, especially with Cole’s steep price on DK. (By the way, do you know which team helped Happ resurrect his career a few years ago – that’s right the Pirates…sigh)
Rick Porcello has been the definition of reliable this season. He’s flashed his former Cy Young winning form by going 6 innings or more in 4 of 5 starts. He 4-0 and has a whip under 1. He simply doesn’t walk anyone and he’s already beaten the Rays twice. Warning – the Rays bats are hot right now, but I still like Porcello’s potential to minimize the damage and rack up a strikeout per inning on his way to a win.
The Risky Tournament Guys with Big Strikeout Upside
Maybe you thought I wasn’t going to mention Robbie Ray or Jose Berrios? It’s hard to ignore their strikeout rates and swinging strike %. But both carry some considerable risk today. If I had to pick my favorite it would be Jose Berrios based on the matchup with strikeout-prone Cincinnati and the fact that we’ve seen him be dominant in 3 out of his 5 starts. He is pitching at home, but that also gives the Reds, who have been pesky of late, an extra bat with the DH.
Robbie Ray is going to show up in every model you look at today, and for good reason. He has the most strikeout upside of any pitcher on the slate. However, I’m not a Robbie Ray truth and I usually look for reasons not to play him, and I think I can make a pretty compelling case for a fade today. His control is a major issue, as he has walked 3 or more batters in every game this season. Between the walks and the strikeouts, he racks up huge pitch counts and therefore never goes deep into games. He has pitched 6 innings just twice in five starts and failed to get through the 5th inning in another two starts. We saw Kendrick and Zimmerman take Corbin deep yesterday, and Bryce Harper is no slouch against lefties. This is just a spot I’m going to stay away from. If he pitches 6 innings and strikes out 10 Nats to get the win that’s certainly within the range of outcomes, I just like some other pitchers on the slate more.
If you’re looking to mass enter today, definitely check out the Domination Station, where it’s easy to set your exposures to your top pitching options and mix in your favorite stacks and one-offs.
The Value Arms
I’m going to skip over the mid-tier. I wouldn’t blame anyone for taking a shot on Kevin Gausman against the Tigers or Ian Kennedy against the White Sox, just know that those are high-risk tournament plays. I’m going to way down to a couple really cheap options that I think have some serious potential today.
Caleb Smith (5900 FD, 5500 DK) vs Miami and Nick Kingham (5500 FD, 4600 DK) vs. St Louis
These two plays are not would I would call safe in any way, so reserve them for tournaments only. However, we see a pair of talented young left-handers who are really cheap today, and I think both could pay off their salaries easily if they are on their game.
Let’s start with Smith. He has been pretty erratic this year with a very high walk rate, but the strikeouts have been there. We saw him finally put it all together last time out against Milwaukee when he pitched 6 innings without a walk and racked up 10 strikeouts. He is a slight favorite pitching at home today in a big ballpark and while we fear the Rockies lineup in Coors, they simply aren’t that scary on the road and have some high strikeout hitters in the lineup like Story and Desmond. This kid has Robbie Ray type upside at half the price (and obviously since I trashed Ray earlier, let’s not forget he runs the same risk of walking 5-6 guys like Ray as well).
Ok now onto my Pirates homer pick…I mean my highly researched off the grid pick you’ll get at extremely low ownership! Nick Kingham has been a top Pirates pitching prospect for what seems like forever. He was coming up with guys like Gerritt Cole and Jameson Taillon, but then like Taillon he ended having Tommy John surgery which set him back a few years. Well, today he makes his MLB debut at home for the Bucs after seven years in the minors.
Setting the feel-good emotions aside, there are some things I like about the matchup for Kingham today. Pouring over his minor league stats, we can see that he has been a fly ball pitcher and there is no better ballpark for a left-handed fly ball pitcher than PNC (ask J.A. Happ). His strikeout numbers were slightly above average, but this year have jumped up to 10.7 per 9 in his first 4 starts at AAA. His control is good, and while the Cardinals lineup is loaded with dangerous righties, they also do strike out a good bit. This is not a play for the faint of heart, but at his salary, if Kingham can go 6 innings and keep the ball in the park, I think he’s firmly in play today.
Who to pick on with bats?
Martin Perez – sure, but there is someone even worse you should target today. And his name is Josh Tomlin. The Indians 5th starter hasn’t made it through 5 innings this year and is serving up home runs left and right. We saw the Mariners go bonkers yesterday against a much better pitcher in Carrasco so I will be firing them up as my number one stack today!
t’s a pretty awesome Sunday slate today. Make sure to check out the other premium content and articles here at DFS ARMY and good luck in all your contests today!
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