What’s up guys? My name is Dan Palyo (I go by “Thunder Dan” in the DFS community) and this is my first article for DFS army. I don’t have a cool name for my column just yet – any ideas? I feel like “Thunder Dome” has some potential but I don’t want to let anyone down who was google searching for post-apocalyptic Tina Turner photos.
Let me just start by saying it’s awesome to be here, this is by far the best collection of DFS minds in the industry and I’m pretty freaking pumped to be joining this team. I’ve been a lifelong sports fan, stat nerd, and this gig combines two of my favorite passions – DFS and writing. I’m going to do my best to be entertaining, possibly funny (no promises), and most importantly knowledgeable and helpful to you when you are creating those DFS lineups.
A quick story – my wife, who is a huge Broadway fan (and amazing woman – I hope you’re reading this, babe) recently won the Hamilton lottery. Now if your a total jock who doesn’t know what Hamilton is – it’s like winning free Super Bowl tickets and your favorite team is playing in it. So we had to plan a quick road trip, not to New York – which would have been only 3 hours away, but to Chicago – which was a lovely 10-hour drive – one way. The moral of the story is that an opportunity presented itself and there was no way we could pass it up. We went, the show was awesome, and I scored major husband points. So I plan on taking full advantage of the opportunity to write here at DFS army and for you Hamilton fans, “I am not throwing away my shot.”
Ok, enough about me, let’s break down the pitching for the main slate tonight, and maybe talk a little about some pitchers we can target with hitters as well.
Let’s start with the high-priced guys.
Lance McCullers (8800 FD, 11200 DK) vs. Oakland
Lance is the biggest favorite on the evening slate at -200 and has hands down the best stuff of any pitcher taking the hill tonight. He has had a few rocky starts and has been walking too many guys which has resulted in him piling up pitch counts and not going that deep into games. But has also been getting a little unlucky with a babip of .381 which is a full 50 points over where he was last year. The good news is the strikeouts and ground balls are still there, and he’s facing a relatively right-handed heavy A’s team that has plenty of strikeouts in the lineup.
I like him a lot more on FD where he is significantly cheaper and I think he is likely to be the cash game chalk. I think he’s the best option for cash games and also carries some nice GPP upside for tournaments. Perhaps his ownership on DK might be reduced by that elevated price. Chug some pep-bismol and then click that McCullers button.
Masahiro Tanaka (9100 FD, 8900 DK) at L.A. Angels
I’ll preface this by saying I am a sucker for Tanaka. The guy has great stuff when he is on and leads the slate with 14.9% swinging strike rate. He is capable of spinning a gem any given night if he can locate his off speed stuff.
His biggest weakness is homers, which he is still hurting his this year. Last year he was at 1.77 HR/9 and is right back this year with a 1.55 HR/9. So when guys do hit him, they are hitting him hard. There’s a few things to like about this spot, however. While the Angels don’t strike out a lot, they also don’t have a ton of power vs. right-handed pitchers (other than that Mike Trout guy). If he were pitching in Yankee stadium, I’d say no way, but the price on DK is appealing at 2300 less than McCullers. I’d reserve this play for tourneys, as there is nothing safe about targeting the Angels with a pitcher.
Alex Wood is a guy I haven’t touched this year, but he’s overpriced for what he offers us from a DFS perspective. You always worry he will get enough innings, and the strikeouts haven’t been there this year. The Giants right handed bats have been better (namely Evan Longoria). Also, I’ll be fading Johnny Cueto who has been perfectly boring and somewhat effective this season. Sure he could rack up a quality start due to how often the Dodgers bats can be stifled, but there’s no strikeouts to be had. I’ll be staying away from both pitchers and most hitters in that game.
The mid-tier and below…
Jack Flaherty (6200 FD, 7200 DK) at Pittsburgh
Ok, so based on the main photo used in this article, I may have buried the lede. I am really in love with this spot tonight for the talented Cardinals youngster. Flaherty was really good in his first game this season with 9k in only 5 frames. He was pitching really well at AAA before being called up as well with 22k in 20 innings pitched. He has been a strikeout-per inning guy throughout his time in the minors, so it doesn’t look too fluky at all.
Full disclosure – I am a pirates fan, so while it pains me to recommend this play, I plan on going heavy on Flaherty in tournaments and will consider him as a sp2 in cash on DK. He’s a slight road favorite pitching at PNC – one of the better pitchers’ parks in MLB. And while I love my Bucs, they don’t offer a ton of pop in their lineup outside of Polanco/Dickerson/Bell. Mikolas pitched well through 7 against them last night and I expect Flaherty to do the same tonight, hopefully the Cards bullpen doesn’t blow it for him like they did for Miles last night.
Garrett Richards (8200 FD, 7000 DK) vs. NY Yankees
While it is never fun to attack the Yankees with a pitcher, Richards is a guy we should consider tonight. I am a bit of a Garrett Richards-truther and I’ve used him almost every start this season. From a sheer stuff perspective, the guy has a dominant arsenal. He’s back throwing as hard, or harder than we saw before his injury and he is racking up strikeouts and ground balls. The walk rate is still way too high and has climbed to 14.3% this year in a small sample size, which always worries you.
If Richards has his good stuff and locates it, we know the Yankees are ripe for striking out plenty. However if he walks a few guys and gives up a bomb to one of the 100 power hitters the Yankees have in the lineup (ok, maybe it just seems like they have that many big bats) then it could be tough sledding. I lean Flaherty in cash games as an SP2 but Richards has more upside in this spot for sure.
If you really want to go there…
German Marquez (5800 FD, 6300 DK) at the Miami Marlins
This is strictly a price point play if you are trying to cram bats and a high end guy like McCullers. Marquez is not as bad as he has been this season and actually flashed some of his better form against my Pirates a few weeks ago. The ERA is scary high in the sixes, but he has a solid matchup against a weak hitting Marlins team in a big ballpark. If he gets through 5 or 6 innings and is able to limit the damage and get the win, he could definitely pay off his price and help you fit that favorite high priced stack into your tournament lineups.
What gas cans should we attack?
Number one of my list is White sox (check lineups, it’s second game of a DH) vs. Eric Skoglund, who has been downright terrible this season and the advanced stats show that it’s not a fluke, he’s just that bad. White Sox have a ton of power from the right side – Abreu, Davidson, Moncada would be where I would look first.
The other guy I’ll mention here is Jason Vargas, who is making his first start of the season for the Mets. This guy had alot of people fooled into thinking he was a good pitcher last year when he started the season so well. Despite winning 18 games, his advanced stats are downright bad. He is hittable, walks guys in bunches, and while everyone loves to pick on the Pads, they do have some solid right handed hitters. My favorite of those hitters is lefty-masher Christian Villanueva who I love as a possible contrarian option at third base.
Good luck tonight, go crush some cash games or take down a GPP! If you liked what you read here, give me a shout out on twitter you can me find at @ThunderDanDFS. Let’s GOOOOOOO!
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