Pitching Breakdown
Monday, April 23rd, 2018
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!
I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that in the write-up!
ALWAYS PAY ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER FROM OUR VERY OWN @DFSWEATHER IN SLACK!!!
Definitions of Stats used in articles via Fangraphs.com
K% (Strikeout Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has struck out a batter, calculated as strikeouts divided by total batters faced.
An average K% is 20%, anything above is considered great or elite
BB% (Walk Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has issued a walk, calculated as walks divided by total batters faced. Average BB% for pitchers is 7.7%, anything lower is considered great or elite
BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The rate at which the pitcher allows a hit when the ball is put in play. A BABIP at or near .300 is considered average. EXAMPLE: if a pitcher has a BABIP of .200 it means he could be getting lucky and balls in play are turned into outs if they have a BABIP of .400 he could be getting unlucky on balls in play and they are turning into hits.
xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): An estimate of a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, and fly balls allowed, assuming league average results on balls in play and home run to fly ball ratio. The Lower the xFIP the better. 3.80 is around average.
SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): An ERA estimator that attempts to more accurately capture a pitcher’s performance based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, home runs, and batted ball data. The lower the better 3.90 is considered average, so anything below that is great to excellent. Anything about is poor.
Hard% (Hard Contact Percentage): Percentage of hard-hit batted balls. Anything below 30% is considered average or better. the lower Hard% the better, meaning pitchers are giving up more soft contact.
wRC+: A rate statistic that credits a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treating them all equally. League average is 100, each point above or below that is one percentage point better or worse than league average. wRC+ is a better representation of offense value.
O-Swing% = Swings at pitches outside the zone/pitches outside the zone
Z-Swing% = Swings at pitches inside the zone/pitches inside the zone
Swing% = Swings / Pitches
O-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches outside the zone / Swings on pitches outside the zone
Z-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches inside the zone / Swings on pitches inside the zone
SwStr% = Swings and misses / Total Pitches
Yesterday’s Results: (here I will post fantasy points from previous day’s picks)
Since there were 2 write-ups and a bunch of pitching, I will not list yesterday’s results and will get right into today’s slate!
Main Slate
Carlos Carrasco (9.6k FD) (11.7k DK) (23.1k FD2) @ BAL: Kluber had his one bad start of the year yesterday against these Orioles. It was not horrible, but he was not generating the strikeouts that he normally does against them. Carrasco will look to grab some K’s here tonight against the Orioles. Carrasco isn’t getting the K’s that we are used too, but still has an average 20% K rate this year. Baltimore has been actually a little better against RHP in their L14, but still, have a 22.6% K rate and 79 wRC+. Historically, the O’s only have 43 at-bats against Carrasco but are hitting just .180 with a .208 wOBA. So far this year Carrasco has been lights out against RHH which Baltimore will have probably 6 at least in their lineup tonight. He isn’t getting hit hard at all so that is a positive note and he’s getting close to 50% groundballs. Baltimore was able to get some runs off Kluber yesterday, but mainly it was Machado, outside of him, their offense isn’t doing too much. Carrasco will look to keep it rolling here tonight.
Masahiro Tanaka (9.1k FD) (8.8k DK) (16.9k FD2) vs MIN: Tanaka is a very up and down pitcher. He has a 24.5% K rate this season so far and isn’t walking too many hitters. A lot of the time his struggles come with giving up home runs and looking at his splits, he has a much higher flyball rate this year than he has in the past (+6%). So far this year he has seen a dip in his velocity on all of his pitches which is something to be concerned about. He’s fared well against some of the Twins current roster limiting them to a .234 average and .259 wOBA with a 27% K rate. The Twins have a 23.7% K rate and have been slowing down a bit of late. I know the upside Tanaka can have and he just has not shown it this year yet. He can go out and dominate but also has been getting blown up. For this slate, I think he COULD be cash viable, but I would keep him more towards GPPs.
Gerrit Cole (10.7k FD) (12.6k DK) (25.1k FD2) vs LAA: Cole has been fantastic to start the year and Cueto just did a number on this Angels team yesterday. Cole has a slate high 39.8% K rate and has a 2.06 SIERA to start the year. Outside of his last start against Seattle, he had 11 K’s twice and 14 Ks. He’s gone 7 innings in every start this year and hasn’t given up more than 2 ER in a start. He has 6 walks in 28 innings too. The current Angels roster has 75 at-bats against him and just a .160 average and .209 wOBA with a 28% K rate. Cole is almost guaranteed to go 6-7 innings and he has the ability to rack up the strikeouts. He’s held both sides of the plate to under a .241 wOBA and under .170 average so far this year. The Angels will probably have just 2 lefties in their lineup where Cole has a 48.3% K rate against, but he still has a 28.9% K rate to RHH. He’s giving up just 29% hard contact and giving up a career-low 68.6% contact rate with 15.3% SwStr rate. He’s probably my top arm tonight.
Chad Bettis (6.4k FD) (7.5k DK) (14.4k FD2) vs SD: A pitcher in Coors…WHAT. Hear me out. Bettis is finally healthy and actually pitches well in Denver. He hasn’t had a full season of outings in a while, but each year he has gotten BETTER at home. He’s not a big strikeout guy but does a good job at getting groundballs (47% this year). He’s normally around 46-51% groundball rates and is getting a career-high 19.7% soft contact this year so far. The Padres do have some power in their lineup and they can be dangerous, but they still have a 30% K rate in their L14 against RHP. Like I said, Bettis is not a huge K guy, but the way the Padres swing he could get a few more than usual tonight. If he’s able to generate groundballs like he has been and get a few K’s he could be a solid GPP play tonight that no one will be on because he’s pitching in Coors.
Gio Gonzalez (8.8k FD) (10.8k DK) (21.3k FD2) @ SF: Oh look, another lefty against the Giants. We have been targeting them for a bit now and they still have a 29.4% K rate against LHP in their L14, which is over 211 PA vs LHP which is also the most in the MLB in that time span. They have guys who can hit lefties, but they just are not doing it right now. Gio has a solid 25.8% K rate this year and pitching to an average 3.69 SIERA so far getting 46% GB, and 30% hard contact with a career-low 74% contact rate against. He has not faced many lefties this year (23), but he’s actually been better to right-handed hitters. Allowing a .314 wOBA to RHH and .343 to LHH. The Giants will most likely roll out 6-7 RHH tonight to try and get the platoon advantage against Gio. He’s actually gotten a higher K% to righties at 27% compared to 21.7% to lefties but has not walked a lefty yet. He’s been a solid pitcher in fantasy production this year, not having a start under 30 fanduel points and he will look to keep that going in the late night hammer against these Giants.
Jarlin Garcia (5.8k FD) (6k DK) (12k FD2) @ LAD: Garcia has looked VERY good to start the year. Now, his BABIP shows that he is getting EXTREMELY lucky this year as it sits a .096 right now and his SIERA is not pretty sitting at 5.19. He has been able to limit the hard contact (26.4%) and getting 54.7% groundballs. He can continue to get lucky tonight or he can get shelled by the Dodgers who are starting to heat up and mash lefties. I do like how he’s been pitching and limiting hitters to under a .200 wOBA so far. Lefties hit grounders all the time against him (87.5% right now) and righties still hit near 50%. He’s very cheap and I think could be worth a look in large-field GPPs.
Walker Buehler (6.2k DK) (11.1k FD2) vs MIA: Typical, fanduel does not have him on their slate today. Buehler is the Dodgers top prospect right now and has been doing very good in the minors since being drafted in 2015. He has 106 innings in the minors and has a very high 147 strikeouts, that’s getting about 12 per 9 innings! His WHIP is just over 1.00 in the minors and he has shown the strikeout upside too. What a place to get his first MLB start against the Marlins who we will pick on all year. They still have a 24.5% K rate to RHP with a .095 ISO and 76 wRC+. Like I’ve said before, they can single the crap out of pitchers, but with Buehler making his first start and being so cheap, I think he will be able to rack up some strikeouts tonight and could pitch enough to get the win or even the quality start.
My Personal Rankings
- Gerrit Cole (all formats)
- Carlos Carrasco (all formats)
- Gio Gonzalez (all formats)
- Masahiro Tanaka (GPP)
- Chad Bettis (GPP)
- Walker Buehler (GPP)
- Jarlin Garcia (GPP)
