Pitching Breakdown
Monday, April 30th, 2018
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
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I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that in the write-up!
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Definitions of Stats used in articles via Fangraphs.com
K% (Strikeout Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has struck out a batter, calculated as strikeouts divided by total batters faced.
An average K% is 20%, anything above is considered great or elite
BB% (Walk Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has issued a walk, calculated as walks divided by total batters faced. Average BB% for pitchers is 7.7%, anything lower is considered great or elite
BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The rate at which the pitcher allows a hit when the ball is put in play. A BABIP at or near .300 is considered average. EXAMPLE: if a pitcher has a BABIP of .200 it means he could be getting lucky and balls in play are turned into outs if they have a BABIP of .400 he could be getting unlucky on balls in play and they are turning into hits.
xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): An estimate of a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, and fly balls allowed, assuming league average results on balls in play and home run to fly ball ratio. The Lower the xFIP the better. 3.80 is around average.
SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): An ERA estimator that attempts to more accurately capture a pitcher’s performance based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, home runs, and batted ball data. The lower the better 3.90 is considered average, so anything below that is great to excellent. Anything about is poor.
Hard% (Hard Contact Percentage): Percentage of hard-hit batted balls. Anything below 30% is considered average or better. the lower Hard% the better, meaning pitchers are giving up more soft contact.
wRC+: A rate statistic that credits a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treating them all equally. League average is 100, each point above or below that is one percentage point better or worse than league average. wRC+ is a better representation of offense value.
O-Swing% = Swings at pitches outside the zone/pitches outside the zone
Z-Swing% = Swings at pitches inside the zone/pitches inside the zone
Swing% = Swings/Pitches
O-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches outside the zone / Swings on pitches outside the zone
Z-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches inside the zone / Swings on pitches inside the zone
SwStr% = Swings and misses/Total Pitches
Yesterday’s Results: (here I will post fantasy points from previous day’s picks)
Main Slate
Jameson Taillon (8.6k FD) (8.1k DK) (15.9k FD2) @ WAS: Taillon was fantastic in his first two starts this season, but has since struggled in his last 2. Tonight, I think he can turn the tables and throw another quality outing. He still has his career-best 3.58 SIERA this season and isn’t getting hit all that hard. The one thing I really like that he’s doing is getting almost 55% groundballs which will only help him tonight. He has a 2:1 GB/FB ratio so far this year. Taillon has actually been better against LHH this year so far with a wOBA of .267 compared to a .334 wOBA against RHH. The Nats will most likely have 4 lefties in their lineup tonight. The thing I keep coming back to is his high groundball rate. If you look at his game logs (like I do), he has been a victim of HIGH BABIP in his last two starts. This could be a reason why he’s been struggling his last two starts. I think he turns it around here tonight and pitches a solid outing against the Nationals. GPP only play though.
Jake Arrieta (8.8k FD) (10.9k DK) (21.6k FD2) @ MIA: His first start this season was against these Marlins and it didn’t go that well, but it was his first after a long absence and with virtually no Spring Training. This slate is not the best for pitching and there are two guys that I think would be my main cash guys. The Marlins have a 27.1% K rate against RHP in their L14 days while getting just a .258 wOBA and 62 wRC+. They virtually have no power and have not had all that many at-bats against Arrieta. In the 46 they do have they are hitting just .174 with a .225 wOBA. He has a low K% which I don’t like at all, but he’s normally around 23+% so I expect it to start to move up here soon. He is getting the highest GB% of his career so far this year at 63.2% and no one is making hard contact against him. His Hard% sits at 13%. Yes, you read that right, 13% hard contact against him. His higher GB rate this year can be because he is throwing his sinker 9% more this year and getting almost half a mile more on it too. He’s also getting close to 2 more inches on his horizontal movement. Hitters are hitting just .186 against his sinker and he will need to keep this down to get a ton of groundballs again here tonight.
Aaron Sanchez (6.5k FD) (6.5k DK) (12.9k FD2) @ MIN: I love how Sanchez has been throwing the ball so far this year. No one will be on him in this matchup like no one was on him against the Red Sox last start, (we were on him though). I am hoping to see his K% rise closer to 20% or higher and his walk rate to lower, but he’s always had a fairly high walk rate. I hate his SIERA this year (4.86) but he’s really had 2 bad starts this year both against the Yankees. He has gone at least 6 innings in 4 of his 5 starts this year and has a Quality Start in those 4 as well. He’s limiting hitters to just a 24% Hard contact rate while getting 56% groundballs this year. Reasons for his newfound success this year is he is throwing a change-up at a HIGH 28.33%. He’s been lowering his FB and CB usage and has relied heavily on his change. He’s relied mostly on his sinker and change-up this year as those two pitches account for about 70% of his pitches. Hitters are hitting just .154 with 12 strikeouts and just 2 XBH against his changeup this year. Since coming back from the Puerto Rico series, the Twins are 1-9 and have not looked all that good. The Twins have just 43 at-bats against Sanchez but are hitting just .209 with a .259 wOBA. Sanchez has struggled against lefties, and the Twins are projected to have 7 in their lineup tonight, but he has been better on the road. I am interested to see which side prevails tonight, but he’s getting over 55% GB to both sides of the plate and allowing less than 25.5% Hard contact to both sides. I like him as a very cheap pitcher tonight and virtually no ownership.
Zack Greinke (9.1k FD) (10.2k DK) (19.3k FD2) vs LAD: Greinke has been great this season so far scoring over 30 fanduel points in every start but 1 this year. At his price, we would like to see a bit more than 30, but the guaranteed points are always good to have at Pitcher. He does have a 26.2% K rate this year and is not walking hitters. He’s getting hit a bit hard, but still has a SIERA of 3.08 which is the lowest on this main slate tonight. The Dodgers have been quite hot against RHP, but still hold a decent 23.5% K rate too. Zack has been MUCH better at home this year and even last year too. He’s allowing just a .237 wOBA at home compared to .378 on the road. He’ll likely see 4-5 LHH tonight where he has seen less K’s against overall, but at home, they are close to equal. The Dodgers roster has a hefty sample size of 140 at-bats are hitting .257 but do have a high wOBA. If you want to pay up and get away from the next guy who will be chalk then I would use Greinke and not go all the way up to Morton. I do like him tonight, but the way the Dodgers are playing lately it may be hard to trust in cash games, but he’s a fantastic GPP play for moe tonight.
PERSONAL RANKINGS
- Jake Arrieta (all formats)
- Zack Greinke (all formats)
- Jameson Taillon (GPP)
- Aaron Sanchez (GPP)
