Pitching Breakdown
Wednesday, April 25th, 2018
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
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I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that in the write-up!
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Definitions of Stats used in articles via Fangraphs.com
K% (Strikeout Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has struck out a batter, calculated as strikeouts divided by total batters faced.
An average K% is 20%, anything above is considered great or elite
BB% (Walk Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has issued a walk, calculated as walks divided by total batters faced. Average BB% for pitchers is 7.7%, anything lower is considered great or elite
BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The rate at which the pitcher allows a hit when the ball is put in play. A BABIP at or near .300 is considered average. EXAMPLE: if a pitcher has a BABIP of .200 it means he could be getting lucky and balls in play are turned into outs if they have a BABIP of .400 he could be getting unlucky on balls in play and they are turning into hits.
xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): An estimate of a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, and fly balls allowed, assuming league average results on balls in play and home run to fly ball ratio. The Lower the xFIP the better. 3.80 is around average.
SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): An ERA estimator that attempts to more accurately capture a pitcher’s performance based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, home runs, and batted ball data. The lower the better 3.90 is considered average, so anything below that is great to excellent. Anything about is poor.
Hard% (Hard Contact Percentage): Percentage of hard-hit batted balls. Anything below 30% is considered average or better. the lower Hard% the better, meaning pitchers are giving up more soft contact.
wRC+: A rate statistic that credits a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treating them all equally. League average is 100, each point above or below that is one percentage point better or worse than league average. wRC+ is a better representation of offense value.
O-Swing% = Swings at pitches outside the zone / pitches outside the zone
Z-Swing% = Swings at pitches inside the zone / pitches inside the zone
Swing% = Swings / Pitches
O-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches outside the zone / Swings on pitches outside the zone
Z-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches inside the zone / Swings on pitches inside the zone
SwStr% = Swings and misses / Total pitches
Yesterday’s Results: (here I will post fantasy points from previous day’s picks)
- Kenta Maeda (40 FD) (22.5 DK)
- Charlie Morton (6 FD) (-1 DK)
- Rick Porcello (43 FD) (24.15 DK)
- Robbie Ray (36 FD) (20.2 DK)
- Shohei Ohtani (24 FD) (10.65 DK)
- A. Happ (52 FD) (31.35 DK)
- Vince Velasquez (18 FD) (9.4 DK)
Main Slate
Zack Greinke (9.2k FD) (10k DK) (16.1k FD2) @ PHI: Greinke will be lower owned tonight with Kershaw on the hill. He actually has a decent matchup tonight against the Phillies. We saw Ray get 11 K’s in just 4.2 innings and the Phillies actually K more vs RHP than LHP. In their L14 they have a 27.6% K rate with a .121 ISO which is on the lower side. He has the 3rd lowest SIERA, which can really be the 2nd because Matt Wisler doesn’t have many innings this year. Greinke comes in as our highest rated arm on the Research Station with a DFSA Grade of 92.03, which is even higher than Kershaw. The Phillies could have 6 lefties in their lineup tonight where Greinke does struggle a bit more against. He only has a 21% K rate to LHH compared to 26% to RHH giving up a slightly higher wOBA. It’s going to be damp and cloudy in this one that could lightly favor the pitchers here. I do think he is too cheap on Fantasydraft especially. He’s actually been very good on the road this year too with a 3.22 xFIP on the road and getting 24% K rate too. I love Greinke tonight as a great pivot off the Kershaw chalk.
Jake Arrieta (8.8k FD) (8.5k DK) (17.1k FD2) vs ARI: Arrieta is another guy who will go under-owned tonight and he’s actually in a great spot. He’s been getting better each start and was amazing last start against the Pirates. Arizona actually has a higher K% than the Phillies in the L14 with a 29.2% K rate. Like I said with Velasquez, the strikeouts are definitely there, but Arizona hits with a lot of power. Jake is pitching with a very good 3.42 SIERA while giving up just 17.4% Hard% and getting a career-high 65.2% GB%. The Dbacks have 74 at-bats only against Arrieta but are just hitting .203 against him with a .249 wOBA and a 28.3% K rate. He’s been a bit better at home and vs LHH this year giving up just a .207 wOBA to lefties and a 29% K rate. This is good because the Diamondbacks will most likely have 4+ lefties in their lineup this evening. This has the makings of a pitcher’s duel tonight and I love both sides for all formats.
Aaron Sanchez (6.3k FD) (6k DK) (12.1k FD2) vs BOS: Here’s a pure GPP play that I doubt anyone will be on tonight. The Red Sox are starting to struggle lately and this is the time that we need to find that GPP pitcher against one of the hottest teams this season. Sanchez hasn’t been his best since his fantastic year in 2016 and having his season last year cut short by injury. He’s never had much higher than a 20% K rate but he’s been able to get a ton of groundballs (56.4%) this year and isn’t getting hit all that hard (25%). The active roster has 89 at-bats against Sanchez and are hitting just .202 with a .283 wOBA. He may have a low K%, but the active roster for BOS has a 25% K rate against him. He’s cheap and will allow you to get any bats you want.
Eduardo Rodriguez (7.1k FD) (7.6k DK) (14.5k FD2) @ TOR: A guy who throws a slider vs TOR, sign me up. I see this game going under the total with two pitchers who can be very good. He has been very good this year but can struggle with his command at times. He does have a 30% K rate but also a high 10.6% walk rate. Outside of his first start, he has gone 6 innings in his last 2 with 13 Ks over 12 innings and just 3 ER. He also has a 26% K rate against the active roster of the Blue Jays. They CAN hit lefties but have not shown it in their L14 with a 25.6% K rate and the 3rd lowest wRC+ in the MLB at 44, with the 2nd lowest ISO at .054. This has a making for a great pitching game tonight. Toronto is struggling and E-Rod has been very good this year and will look to keep it rolling tonight.
Clayton Kershaw (11.4k FD) (14k DK) (22.9k FD2) vs MIA: Even Kershaw I believe is too cheap in this matchup tonight against the Marlins. He’s got the best SIERA on the slate at 2.78 and getting 27% K rate this year so far. He’s one of the best pitchers in baseball and in this matchup he’s set up for a great game, there is not much else I need to say about him. On fanduel, I would use him and move on, on DK you may be okay with a fade and go grab Arrieta/Greinke as your pitchers. He’s the chalk at pitcher tonight especially being rather cheap for a game against the Marlins.
Michael Wacha (6.6k FD) (6.3k DK) (12.9k FD2) vs NYM: I did not think Wacha would make another appearance in my article so soon, but here he is. He’s been decent this year but will not WOW you with big strikeout numbers as he only has 15 in 21.1 innings this year. His first start against the Mets this year was one to forget, but outside of that start, he has rather good numbers against the Mets active roster. As a team, they have 109 at-bats against him and are hitting just .147 with a .222 wOBA and a 30% strikeout rate. He’s MUCH better at home normally and has a .287 wOBA at home compared to a .370 on the road. He’s limited lefties to a .256 wOBA compared to a .413 wOBA to righties and the Mets are projected to have 6 lefties in their lineup tonight and just 3 righties. He also strikes out 20% of lefties compared to 11% righties and being able to generate 12% more groundballs to LHH. All signs here point to Wacha having a good outing and will not be owned at all. I think he’s cheap enough we can take a risk and he can give us 25-30 points on fanduel in this matchup.
My Personal Rankings
- Clayton Kershaw (all formats)
- Zack Greinke (all formats)
- Jake Arrieta (all formats)
- Eduardo Rodriguez (GPP, or SP2)
- Aaron Sanchez (GPP)
- Michael Wacha (GPP)
