Pitching Breakdown Monday, April 2nd, 2018
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!
I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that in the write-up!
ALWAYS PAY ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER FROM OUR VERY OWN @DFSWEATHER IN SLACK!!!
Any updates will be given in our VIP Slack Channel! <– click here to see our pricing to get the whole VIP experience!
Definitions of Stats used in articles via Fangraphs.com
K% (Strikeout Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has struck out a batter, calculated as strikeouts divided by total batters faced.
An average K% is 20%, anything above is considered great or elite
BB% (Walk Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has issued a walk, calculated as walks divided by total batters faced. Average BB% for pitchers is 7.7%, anything lower is considered great or elite
BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The rate at which the pitcher allows a hit when the ball is put in play. A BABIP at or near .300 is considered average. EXAMPLE: if a pitcher has a BABIP of .200 it means he could be getting lucky and balls in play are turned into outs if they have a BABIP of .400 he could be getting unlucky on balls in play and they are turning into hits.
xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): An estimate of a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, and fly balls allowed, assuming league average results on balls in play and home run to fly ball ratio. The Lower the xFIP the better. 3.80 is around average.
SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): An ERA estimator that attempts to more accurately capture a pitcher’s performance based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, home runs, and batted ball data. The lower the better 3.90 is considered average, so anything below that is great to excellent. Anything about is poor.
Hard% (Hard Contact Percentage): Percentage of hard-hit batted balls. Anything below 30% is considered average or better. the lower Hard% the better, meaning pitchers are giving up more soft contact.
wRC+: A rate statistic that credits a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treating them all equally. League average is 100, each point above or below that is one percentage point better or worse than league average. wRC+ is a better representation of offense value.
Yesterday’s Results: (here I will post fantasy points from previous day’s picks)
Main Slate (9 games)
Charlie Morton (8.5k FD) (11.1k DK) (21.4k FD2) vs BAL: Early in the season, Baltimore has been one of the slowest teams. They get a series against the Astros on the road now and Morton gets game 1. There is some concern I have with Morton here but I’ll get to that in a second. First off, Morton opens this game as a -205 favorite and considering how bad the O’s have looked so far I understand why. He will be the chalk today and in cash just use him and move on. He had a 52% groundball rate last year and throws his sinker mostly around 40% of the time. The concern I have here is the O’s finally break out and Morton has not had nice April’s over his career, BUT he is much better at home and that’s where he is tonight.
Andrew Triggs (6.4k FD) (8k DK) (15.3k FD2) vs TEX: Not your prettiest play tonight, but the pitching on this slate is terrible. Triggs’ season ended early last year with hip surgery, but he was doing well with the big club. In his young career, he has been a good groundball pitcher getting around 50% groundballs last season. He will not rack up many K’s usually, but tonight I can see him getting a few extra against the free-swinging Rangers. I feel better about this play because it’s in Oakland rather than Texas. I know it’s only 4 games into the season, but the Rangers have a 30% K rate to RHP already. Triggs does not usually get hit very hard (around 25% Hard%) when he is healthy. He also has the lowest Hard% on this slate from last season. He’s also a bit better at home too. High-risk play, but most pitchers on this slate are high risk.
Chad Bettis (6.3k FD) (8.2k DK) (16.1k FD2) @ SD: I’m throwing out his 2017 season because he lost most of it due to cancer treatments. Luckily for him, he is healthy now and cancer free! The Padres have been pretty solid this year so far, but I think this is the time to use Bettis, early in the season. He gets a good amount of groundballs (around 50% in 2016) and so far this season, the Padres have his 46.3% groundballs vs RHP. The downside here is he doesn’t strike many hitters out. Hopefully, he can keep it on the ground and not give up many runs tonight.
Sean Newcomb (6.3k FD) (7.6k DK) (14.7k FD2) vs WSH: I do not love this play at all, but I do see the upside with Newcomb. Last year he struggled at home, but always had under 30% Hard%. The Nats have not seen him much so BvP does not matter here for me. The issue I have is he will see 8 RHH with Harper being the only lefty. He was a bit worse at home last year but still had a decent 23.7% K%. His walks were WAY too high for me. But this slate is awful for pitching and I think he could be viable in GPPs.
Taijuan Walker (7.9k FD) (9.4k DK) (18.1k FD2) vs LAD: This play is here for Walker’s upside he can show. Plus the Dodgers have looked just terrible to start the season. They have not really faced that amazing of pitching and couldn’t score like at all the first weekend. Now, I know they will break out soon, but on this slate, I think Walker is an OK GPP option. This play is mainly with how bad the Dodgers have been to start the season. Walker struggles more at home over his career and only hovers around 21% K rate so maybe he racks some up tonight. I don’t love him, and I would rather go Triggs in GPPs tonight, but on this slate, I think in GPPs he could do okay.
My Personal Rankings
- Charlie Morton (LOCK HIM IN CASH AND MOVE ON)
- Andrew Triggs (GPP)
- Taijuan Walker (GPP)
- Chad Bettis (GPP)
- Sean Newcomb (GPP)
PLEASE NOTE: THIS SLATE IS BAD FOR PITCHING, I DO NOT REALLY FEEL SAFE WITH ANYONE TONIGHT. USE MORTON IN CASH BECAUSE HE WILL BE CHALK, AND GET FUNKY IN GPPS!
