Pitching Breakdown
Thursday, April 26th, 2018
This article will include both EARLY and MAIN slates today!
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
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I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that in the write-up!
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Definitions of Stats used in articles via Fangraphs.com
K% (Strikeout Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has struck out a batter, calculated as strikeouts divided by total batters faced.
An average K% is 20%, anything above is considered great or elite
BB% (Walk Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has issued a walk, calculated as walks divided by total batters faced. Average BB% for pitchers is 7.7%, anything lower is considered great or elite
BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The rate at which the pitcher allows a hit when the ball is put in play. A BABIP at or near .300 is considered average. EXAMPLE: if a pitcher has a BABIP of .200 it means he could be getting lucky and balls in play are turned into outs if they have a BABIP of .400 he could be getting unlucky on balls in play and they are turning into hits.
xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): An estimate of a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, and fly balls allowed, assuming league average results on balls in play and home run to fly ball ratio. The Lower the xFIP the better. 3.80 is around average.
SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): An ERA estimator that attempts to more accurately capture a pitcher’s performance based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, home runs, and batted ball data. The lower the better 3.90 is considered average, so anything below that is great to excellent. Anything about is poor.
Hard% (Hard Contact Percentage): Percentage of hard-hit batted balls. Anything below 30% is considered average or better. the lower Hard% the better, meaning pitchers are giving up more soft contact.
wRC+: A rate statistic that credits a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treating them all equally. League average is 100, each point above or below that is one percentage point better or worse than league average. wRC+ is a better representation of offense value.
O-Swing% = Swings at pitches outside the zone/pitches outside the zone
Z-Swing% = Swings at pitches inside the zone/pitches inside the zone
Swing% = Swings/Pitches
O-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches outside the zone / Swings on pitches outside the zone
Z-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches inside the zone / Swings on pitches inside the zone
SwStr% = Swings and misses/Total Pitches
Yesterday’s Results: (here I will post fantasy points from previous day’s picks)
Early Slate
Jordan Montgomery (7.8k FD) (7.8k DK) vs MIN: The Yankees are absolutely destroying the Twins this series and Montgomery gets the ball in the final game this afternoon against the Twins. The Yanks open up this game as a massive -188 favorite and the Twins have been AWFUL against LHP in their L14 days. They have a 28.2% K rate, .179 average, .236 wOBA, and just a 43 wRC+. Montgomery has looked very good so far this season and better in his last two starts racking up 31 and 40 fanduel points both going 6 innings. He’s not a big strikeout guy and only will get you 4-6 most starts, but the high K rate the Twins are having could allow him a couple extra here this afternoon. His SIERA is a bit high for my liking, but his other stats look good. He’s only giving up 27% Hard contact and generating 47.7% groundballs on the season. He’s getting opponents to swing at 34.5% of balls outside the zone which is fairly good and has above a 10% swinging strike rate as well. First pitch strikes are key to him here today. With the next two pitchers being chalky most likely, I think Montgomery can go under the radar and pick you up 30+ points this afternoon.
Noah Syndergaard (10.8k FD) (11.6k DK) @ STL: This is a rematch of each of these pitchers first starts of the season. If you are a DFSARMY member, then you’ll see that Syndergaard is our top-rated Pitcher on this early slate. I cannot give out much VIP information in this article so you’ll have to sign up HERE and use code “DFSMATT” to get yourself 10% off your monthly subscription.
Okay, back to Syndergaard. He’s the best pitcher on this slate and will be fairly chalky on this early state. He has a 34.8% K rate with just a 4.5% walk rate allowing just a .226 average against and pitching to a 2.21 SIERA. He’s not getting hit hard at all (23.9% Hard%) and been getting 50% groundballs. He’s getting 15.7% SwStr% while hitters are getting a very low 68% contact rate. The Cards only are striking out 20% of the time right now and have a very good wRC+. He got 42 fanduel points against these Cardinals in start 1 this year and has been fairly consistent. I would like to see more from him though for his price over 10k on fanduel. I want to see a 50 point game from him here soon.
Carlos Martinez (9.5k FD) (11.2k DK) vs NYM: I liked C-Mart in start 1 and he disappointed me in that one. Well, I’m going right back to him this afternoon slate. His control is always his issue and he’s actually getting hit very hard this year, but he still has just a 3.89 SIERA which is near average. He is getting 56% groundballs so that is helping him and also a career-low 5.3% HR/FB ratio. He is seeing a small dip in velocity in all his pitches this year which may be concerning further down the road and something that we will have to monitor closely. He’s only faced 3 teams this year, the Mets, Reds, and Brewers and gets the Mets for the second time already now. He’s been very good since that first start though and the Mets have been just about average in wRC+ with a 23% K rate. He’s allowing under a .270 wOBA overall this year and I expect him to have a much better outing this time around against the Mets.
My Personal Rankings
- Noah Syndergaard (all formats)
- Carlos Martinez (all formats)
- Jordan Montgomery (lean GPP)
Main Slate
Chris Archer (8.3k FD) (8.8k DK) @ BAL: Archer has been fairly solid this year outside of his start against the Phillies. He comes in with a 3.82 SIERA and decent 46% groundball rate. He is getting hit fairly hard which has some concerns, but he is also getting a career-high 14% SwStr rate. Baltimore has had 155 at-bats against Archer and are hitting .265 with some success in the HR department. These numbers I think are swayed from when Baltimore was hitting well. Right now they are not the best and over their L14 vs RHP they have a high 25.2% K rate and are hitting under .230. This game I think has the chance to be a well-pitched game from both sides as both pitchers have been good this season. With a total sitting at just 7.5 right now, I like both sides of this game for GPPs because we know Sale will be the chalk in cash games.
Dylan Bundy (9.7k FD) (9.8k DK) vs TB: I love how Bundy is pitching to start his season. He’s been getting many more strikeouts than last year so far at 31% K rate and pitching with an amazing SIERA of 3.02. He’s not getting hit too hard either (29%). He’s been very dominant this year so far having pitched no game less than 32 fanduel points while getting more than 40 three times and 50 once. He has gone at least 6 innings in all but 1 of his starts this year and getting no less than 6 strikeouts in a game. He is virtually un-hittable against righties where they have just a .094 average a .158 wOBA against him. The Rays are fairly even with lefties and righties but the lefties have a LOT of strikeouts in them so they do not worry me at all here. I think with how he’s been pitching he ranks higher than Archer for me. It helps that the Rays also have a 25% K rate in their L14 too. They have limited at-bats against him but hitting just .147 with a 35% K rate in those at-bats. He’s a fantastic play here tonight.
Chris Sale (11.4k FD) (13k DK) @ TOR: CHALK ALERT. Sale will be chalk, he is the best option on the day and there’s no question about it. Toronto can’t hit lefties right now and have a 25.6% K rate with just a 44 wRC+ over their last 14 vs LHP. On the year, Sale has a 36% K rate and just 5% walk rate, getting hit hard just 27% of the time and has a 2.34 SIERA. He dominates both sides of the plate so splits do not concern me here. As a team, Toronto has 132 at-bats against him with just a .220 average and .283 wOBA with a 26.5% K rate. Sale will look to bounce back after his “bad” start in Oakland. The Jays have Estrada pitching tonight, so I think Boston will get this win easily.
Jakob Junis (8.7k FD) (8.3k DK) vs CWS: Junis has been amazing to start this season and I’m seeing what I always liked about him. He’s pitching with a decent SIERA of 4.11, it is a little high but workable. He’s getting hit hard 31% which is around average. I wish he would get a few more strikeouts, but he is around average for that to 19.6%. Against RHP, the White Sox have a 25% K rate. Yes, they have been a little hotter of late but faced some bad pitching. Junis is a good GPP option today and so far this year he has scored 49, 40, 23, and 40 fanduel points. This is a good matchup for him here and I like him as an SP2 also if you need it.
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
- Chris Sale (all formats)
- Dylan Bundy (all formats)
- Chris Archer (all formats)
- Jakob Junis (lean GPP, SP2 on DK)
