Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night
Recap
Let’s take a look at how our free squares did last night. Our pitcher free square was Steven Brault who ended up with right around 17.05 DKFP which was good enough for right around 3.2x value. Our infielder free square was Ben Zobrist who ended up with right around 6 DKFP which was good enough for right around 1.7x value. Our outfielder free square was Corey Dickerson who ended up with right around 17 DKFP which was good enough for right around 4.9x value.
Today
Let’s takes a look at the MLB slate for Friday night. The teams with the highest implied run total are the: Toronto Blue Jays (5.48), Houston Astros (5.34), and the New York Yankees (5.10). The highest priced pitchers on the slate are Lance McCullers, Kenta Maeda, and Kyle Hendricks. The highest priced hitters on the slate are Giancarlo Stanton, Mike Trout, and Jose Altuve.
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Free Squares
- Kyle Hendricks P CHC ($9,400)
- Kyle Hendricks and the Chicago Cubs will take on the Milwaukee Brewers on the road tonight. The Brewers have an implied total sitting at right around 3.93 runs and they are currently -141 favorites. Miller Park was the 8th best hitters park last season. Hendricks had the following stats on the season last year: .309 wOBA given up to lefties, .274 wOBA given up to righties, 21.6 K%, 7.0 BB%, .281 BABIP, 30.4 Hard%, 4.08 SIERA, and a 3.76 xFIP. The Brewers had the following ranks vs. right-handed pitchers: 13th in BB%, 1st in K%, 15th in BB%, 10th in ISO, 16th in wOBA, and 19th in wRC+. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 17..631 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 1.88x value. The Brewers were a high strikeout team last year and I like this spot for Hendricks tonight. Load him up as either an SP1 or SP2 on Draftkings tonight.
- Devon Travis 2B TOR ($3,100)
- Devon Travis and the Toronto Blue Jays will take on the Texas Rangers and pitcher Matt Moore on the road tonight. The Blue Jays have an implied total sitting at right around 5.48 runs and the -142 favorites. Globe Life Park in Arlington was the 2nd best hitters park last season. Travis is likely going to be batting 1st in the order tonight. Travis had the following numbers vs. left-handed pitchers last season: 11.4 BB%, 20.0 K%, 1.013 OPS, .290 ISO, .364 BABIP, .423 wOBA, 168 wRC+, and a 29.2 Hard%. Matt Moore had the following numbers vs. right-handed batters last season: .326 wOBA, 19.4 K%, 8.3 BB%, .292 BABIP, 5.06 xFIP, 35.1 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 59.115. One of the highest totals on the board tonight and Travis is an affordable leadoff hitter with solid splits. Load him up as your second baseman on Draftkings tonight.
- Shin-Soo Choo OF TEX ($3,400)
- Shin-Soo Choo and the Texas Rangers will take on the Toronto Blue Jays and pitcher Marco Estrada at home tonight. The Rangers have an implied total sitting at right around 5.02 runs and they are currently +114 underdogs. Globe Life Park in Arlington was the 2nd best hitters park last season. Choo is likely going to batting 1st in the order tonight. Choo had the following numbers against right-handed pitchers last season: 11.6 BB%, 22.4 K%, .787 OPS, .190 ISO, .338 wOBA, 106 wRC+, and a 40.4 Hard%. Marco Estrada had the following numbers against left-handed batters last season: .291 wOBA, 22.0 K%, 6.2 BB%, .235 BABIP, 4.63 xFIP, and a 23.8 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 69.317. Like Travis, the Rangers have one of the higher implied totals and Choo is going to be batting lead-off. He had good splits against right-handed pitchers and Estrada was average vs. lefties last season. Load him up as a outfielder with upside tonight on Draftkings.
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Ultimate Free Square
We have a smaller slate tonight with some solid tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Devon Travis tonight! Good luck Army!
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