Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night
Recap
Let’s take a look at how our free squares did last night. Our pitcher free square was Jon Gray who ended up with right around 20.60 DKFP which was good enough for right around 2.6x value. Our infielder free square was Devon Travis was out of the starting lineup. Our outfielder free square was Dexter Fowler who ended up with right around 14 DKFP which was good enough for right around 3.7x value.
Today
Let’s takes a look at the MLB slate for Thursday tonight. The teams with the highest implied run total are the: Chicago Cubs (4.60), Milwaukee Brewers (4.40), and the St. Louis Cardinals (3.83). The highest priced pitchers on the slate are Robbie Ray, Jon Lester, and Michael Wacha. The highest priced hitters on the slate are Kris Bryant, A.J. Pollock, and Anthony Rizzo.
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Free Squares
- Steven Brault P PIT ($5,400)
- Steven Brault and the Pittsburgh Pirates will take on the Cincinnati Reds at home tonight. The Reds have an implied total sitting at right around 3.67 runs and the Pirates are currently -140 favorites. PNC Park was the 20th best hitters park last season. Brault had the following numbers on the season last year: .297 wOBA given up to lefties, .353 wOBA given up to righties, 14.2 K%, 8.6 BB%, .317 BABIP, 33.3 Hard%, 5.22 SIERA, and a 5.58 xFIP. I wouldn’t put a ton of stock in these numbers as Brault didn’t throw a ton of innings last season. The Reds had the following ranks against vs. lefties last season: 20th in BB%, 13th in K%, 18th in OPS, 11th in ISO, 17th in wOBA, and 20th in wRC+. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 19.248 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 2.74x value. It’s kind of a dumpster fire slate for pitching tonight. That being said Brault has a solid matchup and if he can 5-6 innings I think he can exceed his value. He offers some nice salary relief as an SP2 tonight on Draftkings.
- Ben Zobrist 2B/OF CHC ($3,600)
- Ben Zobrist and the Chicago Cubs will take on the Milwaukee Brewers and pitcher Brent Suter on the road tonight. The Cubs have an implied total sitting at right around 4.60 runs and they are currently -108 favorites. Miller Park was the 8th best hitters stadium last year. Zobrist is likely going to be batting 1st in the order tonight. Zobrist had the following numbers vs. left-handed pitching last season: 9.9 BB%, 14.0 K%, .553 OPS, .113 ISO, .202 BABIP, .242 wOBA, 42 wRC+, and a 29.4 Hard%. He will face Brent Suter tonight who had the following numbers against right-handed batters: .324 wOBA, 19.1 K%, 6.3 BB%, .333 BABIP, 4.10 xFIP, and a 27.4 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 68.732. This is more a situational play tonight as Zobrist had horrible numbers vs. lefties last season. There are only 3-games on the slate tonight and he is going to be a lead-off hitter on the highest implied run total team. You can play him as an infielder or outfielder and I think he should get enough opportunities in a hitters park to have a solid night.
- Corey Dickerson OF PIT ($3,500)
- Corey Dickerson will take on the Cincinnati Reds and pitcher Homer Bailey tonight at home. The Pirates have an implied total sitting at right around 4.33 runs and they are currently -108 favorites. PNC Park was the 20th best hitters park last season. Dickerson is likely going to be batting 5th in the order tonight. Dickerson had the following numbers vs. right-handed pitching last season: 6.3 BB%, 23.5 K%, .813 OPS, .220 ISO, .313 BABIP, .339 wOBA, 113 wRC+, and 34.9 Hard%. He faces Homer Bailey tonight who had the following numbers vs. left-handed batters last season: .356 wOBA, 13.9 K%, 13.0 BB%, .310 BABIP, 5.73 xFIP, and 31.5 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 72.807. Bailey really struggled vs. lefties last season and Dickerson had pretty good numbers vs. righties. He is decently affordable in a solid spot tonight. Load him up as an outfielder on Draftkings tonight.
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Ultimate Free Square
We have a smaller slate tonight with some solid tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Corey Dickerson tonight! Good luck Army!
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