Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night
Recap
Let’s take a look at how our free squares did last night. Our pitcher free square was J.A. Happ who ended up with right around 20.60 DKFP which was good enough for right around 2.6x value. Our infielder free square was Devon Travis was out of the starting lineup. Our outfielder free square was Joey Gallo who ended up with right around 14 DKFP which was good enough for right around 3.7x value.
Today
Let’s takes a look at the MLB slate for the tonight. The teams with the highest implied run total are the Toronto Blue Jays (5.16), Oakland Athletics (4.71), St. Louis Cardinals (4.60) The highest priced pitchers on the slate are Carlos Martinez, Johnny Cueto, and Felix Hernandez. The highest priced hitters on the slate are Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, and Khris Davis.
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Free Squares
- Jon Gray P COL ($8,500)
- Jon Gray and the Colorado Rockies will take on the San Diego Padres on the road tonight. The Padres have an implied total sitting at right around 3.35 runs and they are currently -122 favorites. Petco Park was the 29th best hitters park last season. Jon Gray had the following numbers last season: .302 wOBA given up to lefties, .318 wOBA given up to righties, 24.3 K%, 6.5 BB%, .336 BABIP, 28.4 Hard%, 3.74 SIERA, and a 3.45 xFIP. The San Diego Padres had the following ranks against right-handed pitching as a team last season: 25th in BB%, 2nd in K%, 29th in OPS, 23rd in ISO, 29th in wOBA, and 27th in wRC+. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 19.583 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 2.3x value. The Padres were awful against right-handed pitching last season. Gray gets a solid matchup in a pitchers park tonight and I think he can rack up some strikeouts to exceed his value tonight on Draftkings.
- Devon Travis 2B TOR ($3,100)
- Well, let’s try this one again. Devon Travis and the Toronto Blue Jays will take on the Chicago White Sox and pitcher Carson Fulmer at home tonight. The Blue Jays have an implied total sitting at right around 5.16 runs and they are currently -182 favorites. He is likely going to be batting 1st in the order tonight, but that is what I said last night so be sure to double check when starting lineups are official. He had the following numbers right-handed pitching last season: 1.9 BB%, 19.1 K%, .670 OPS, .158 ISO, .287 BABIP, .282 wOBA, 71 wRC+, and a 32.8 Hard%. Carson Fulmer had the following stats against right-handed batters last season: .273 wOBA, 17.1 K%, 7.1 BB%, .241 BABIP, 5.80 xFIP, and a 30.0 Hard%. It is quite the small sample size as he only threw 10 innings against righties last season.Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 74.104. This is the highest implied total game of the night and I want to get as many at-bats possible from this game and against Fulmer. Travis is cheap and should see a lot of fantasy opportunities tonight. Load him up as an affordable 2B on Draftkings tonight.
- Dexter Fowler OF STL ($3,300)
- Dexter Fowler and the St. Louis Cardinals will take on the Milwaukee Brewers and pitcher Jhoulys Chacin on the road tonight. The Cardinals have an implied total sitting at right around 4.60 runs and they are currently -114 favorites. Miller Park was the 8th best hitters park last season. Fowler is likely going to be batting 1st in the order tonight. Fowler had the following numbers vs. right-handed pitching last season. 13.5 BB%, 22.4 K%, .883 OPS, .243 ISO, .312 BABIP, .368 wOBA, 128 wRC+, and a 38.0 Hard%. Chacin had the following numbers against left-handed batters last season: .338 wOBA, 16.1 K%, 12.1 BB%, .276 BABIP, 5.55 xFIP, and a 33.1 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 77.413. Fowler had solid numbers vs. right-handed pitching last season and he faces a bit of a gas can against lefties in Chacin tonight. He is going to be batting lead-off and the price is too good to pass up tonight on for me on Draftkings.
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Ultimate Free Square
We have a smaller slate tonight with some solid tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Dexter Fowler tonight! Good luck Army!
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