Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night
Recap
Let’s take a look at how our free squares did last night. Our pitcher free square was J.A. Happ who ended up with right around 20.60 DKFP which was good enough for right around 2.6x value. Our infielder free square was Devon Travis was out of the starting lineup. Our outfielder free square was Joey Gallo who ended up with right around 14 DKFP which was good enough for right around 3.7x value.
Today
Let’s takes a look at the MLB slate for the early slate. The teams with the highest implied run total are the New York Yankees (5.18), Houston Astros (4.85), and the Los Angeles Dodgers (4.24). The highest priced pitchers on the slate are Luis Severino, Dallas Keuchel, and Alex Wood. The highest priced hitters on the slate are Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, and Jose Altuve.
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Free Squares
- Aaron Nola P PHI ($8,500)
- Aaron Nola and the Philadelphia Phillies will take on the New York Mets on the road this afternoon. The Mets have an implied total sitting at right around 3.69 runs and the Phillies are currently +117 underdogs. Citi Field was the 26th best hitters park last season. Aaron Nola had the following stats on the season last year: .318 wOBA given up to lefties, .270 wOBA given up to righties, 26.6 K%, 7.1 BB%, .309 BABIP, 29.7 Hard%, 3.60 SIERA, and a 3.38 xFIP. The Mets had the following ranks against right-handed pitching last season as a team: 12th in BB%, 22nd K%, 14th in OPS, 12th in ISO, 15th in wOBA, and 9th in wRC+. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 19.856 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 2.34x value. I expect a lot of people are going to roll out two studs on this slate. If you need a solid SP2 option I think Nola is a great option. The Mets were kind of a middling team against righties last season and Nola had some solid numbers. Load him up as an SP2 on Draftkings for the early slate.
- Christopher Taylor 2B/OF LAD ($4,000)
- Chris Taylor and the Los Angeles Dodgers will take on the Arizona Diamondbacks and pitcher Patrick Corbin on the road this afternoon. The Dodgers have an implied total sitting at right around 4.24 runs and they are currently -133 favorites. Chase Field was the 3rd best hitters park last season. Taylor is likely going to be batting 1st in the order this afternoon. Taylor had the following stats against left-handed pitching last season: 7.9 BB%, 27.2 K%, .837 OPS, .188 ISO, .394 BABIP, .355 wOBA, 122 wRC+, and a 29.6 Hard%. Patrick Corbin had the following numbers vs. right-handed batters last season: .349 wOBA, 19.0 K%, 11.1 BB%, .336 BABIP, 4.25x xFIP, and a 32.7 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 77.612. Taylor had solid numbers against lefty pitching last season. He is going to be in an extreme hitters park, batting lead-off against a so-so pitcher. Load Taylor up as either an outfielder or infielder on Draftkings this afternoon.
- Rajai Davis OF CLE ($2,500)
- Rajai Davis and the Cleveland Indians will take on the Los Angeles Angels and pitcher Tyler Skaggs on the road this afternoon. The Indians have an implied total sitting at right around 3.79 runs and they are currently -142 favorites. Angels Stadium was the 19th best hitters park last year. Rajai is likely to bat 5th in the order this afternoon. Davis had the following numbers vs. left-handed pitching last season: 8.5 BB%, 20.0 K%, .677 OPS, .128 ISO, .292 wOBA, 82 wRC+, and a 20.4 Hard%. Tyler Skaggs had the following numbers vs. right-handed hitters last season: .345 wOBA, 21.1 K%, 8.1 BB%, .319 BABIP, 4.51 xFIP, and a 35.2 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 66.062. We are going to need some salary relief for this early slate and I think Davis makes a solid play. He had decent numbers against lefties last season will hit in the middle of the order and is dirt cheap. Load him up as a value outfielder on Draftkings this afternoon.
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Ultimate Free Square
We have a decent early slate with some solid tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Aaron Nola tonight! Good luck Army!
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